美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年8月18日）

美国农业部公布最新世界农业供需预测

美国农业部上周公布了８月份作物报告和世界农业供需最新预测，其中包含农业部下属机构国家农业统计局（NASS）对行播作物年度单产的首次预测以及对春洪发生后播种面积的专门核定。这是美国农业部首次基于调查做出的产量预测，结果表明大豆产量居然仅为８０９０万吨，比美国农业部在７月份供需报告中的预测低７３．５万吨。美国农业部将大豆收获面积预测上调１２０万英亩。美国农业部对大豆单产的预测为每英亩４０．５蒲式耳，远远低于分析人士的预测。美国农业部预计２００７－２００８年度的压榨量将下降２７．２万吨，２００８－２００９年度将下降４０．８万吨，从而基本抵消了预估产量的下降。

美国农业部对预估播种面积的调整远比其单产评估更具影响，因为大豆单产在很大程度上取决于８、９月份的天气，因此８月１日的单产预测本身就没有太大实际意义。过去２０年来，美国农业部８月份产量预测与最终实际产量之间的平均误差为３８１万吨。美国农业部还将２００８－２００９年度的结转库存下调５００万蒲式耳，降至３６７万吨的极低水平。

在这个时刻，相对于所经历的天气、大豆长势评级以及近期行业调查得出的单产趋势而言，美国农业部的单产预测似乎显得非常保守。不过，由于美国农业部对产量的预测低于预计，这有可能对过去５周来大幅下跌的大豆类产品期价起到支持作用。但是，美国农业部对玉米产量的预测高于预计，这又会对大豆价格起到抑制作用。

美国油籽加工者协会公布７月份的压榨数字

美国油籽加工者协会上周公布的压榨数字再次低得令人吃惊。该数字显示，７月份的压榨量只有３６２万吨，低于上个月的３６３万吨，更低于去年同期的３８６万吨以及行业分析人士预测的３７８万吨。美国农业部上周早些时候已将２００７－２００８年度的压榨量下调１３．６万吨至４９８０万吨。由于压榨数字下降，美国油籽加工者协会将豆油库存从上个月的基础上下调了３．７２万吨，低于库存上升２万吨的行业预测数字。

农业法案的实施令人担忧

《２００２年农业法案》通过后不久，一些农业州的立法委员及农场团体就开始抱怨美国农业部关于法案实施的某些决策。目前，《２００８年农业法案》也面临同样的问题。最近抱怨的焦点在于，美国农业部迟迟不出台平均作物收入选择（ACRE）方案的正式实施程序。预算部门似乎希望美国农业部在制定ACRE公式时采用２００６和２００７年度而不是２００７和２００８年度的平均价格。另外一个抱怨则是关于美国农业部如何决定对面积不超过１０英亩的农场停止政府付款。

和以往一样，关于美国农业部如何实施这项综合性的农业法案，农业州的立法委员将有最终发言权。如果实施条例对农场主不利，国会将以法律形式强制实行所遵循的实施细则，以前国会这样做过，或威胁过要采取这样的措施。一些反对者表示，如果农业州参议员不保证美国农业部将以国会指定的方式实施农业法案，他们将拒绝美国农业部现任副部长马克∙基纳姆加入农业信贷管理委员会。

美国农业部可能重新考虑有关环保休耕计划（CRP）的决定

美国农业部长艾德∙谢弗上周说，如果物价上涨的压力继续增长，美国农业部将重新考虑是否允许在２００８年提前解除CRP土地制约且不处以罚款。“如果我们开始再次审视因供货而造成的某些物价压力，那么CRP就会成为我们需要重新考虑的问题，”谢弗说。“我不认为现在就要这样做，但无疑大门的敞开的。”

经过几周的审议，美国农业部决定，没有必要解除CRP对３４７０万英亩土地的限制，理由是，天气形势良好、谷物市场价格正在下降、农用土地供应量正在增加。

中国继续大量进口大豆

中国在过去5年左右的时间里一直是世界最大的大豆进口国，而最近4个月中国的大豆进口量更是大得出奇。在4月份和7月份，美国、巴西、阿根廷对中国的大豆出口总量超过４１０万吨，５月份的出口总量为３９０万吨。６月份由于阿根廷农场主罢工，出口总量仅为３４０万吨，但仍比去年同期高出３４％。

中国除了大量进口南美大豆以外，还在本销售年度下半年加大了对美国大豆的进口，这是因为阿根廷３－７月份时断时续的罢工使得阿根廷出口货物的发运出现不确定性。５至７月份美国对中国的大豆出口量通常为每月０－２０万吨（７３０万蒲式耳），但今年这三个月的单月出口量均超过５０万吨（１８４０万蒲式耳）。

据行业预测，中国在２００７－２００８（头年１０月至次年９月）销售年度的大豆进口量将达到３７９０万吨，比上一年度的２８７０万吨高出３２％。但是，中国在２００８－２００９年度的进口量预计只能小幅上升至３８５０万吨，这是因为人们认为中国今年正在积蓄库存，而且２００８年中国的大豆产量预计将从上一年度令人失望的１３５０万吨上升到１６００万吨。

美国油籽加工者协会的压榨报告及美国农业部的出口报告公布后，大豆类产品期价下跌

在令人失望的美国油籽加工者协会压榨报告和美国农业部出口报告公布后，大豆类产品在８月１４日收盘时价格下跌。另有传闻说中国将取消部分大豆订货。豆油期价尽管面临石油价格下跌造成的压力，但仍比生物柴油的盈亏平衡点低２－３个百分点，而且豆油产品的市场份额比以前更坚实。９月份大豆期货价格下跌＄４．５０为＄４６４．９０，１１月份下跌＄３．６７为＄４６８．１１，１月份下跌＄３．４９为４７４．７２；９月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄８．０５为＄３８３．８２，１０月下跌＄５．０７为＄３８０．７３，１２月份下跌＄４．９６为＄３８３．０５；９月份豆油期货价格下跌＄７．７２为＄１１４９．０４，１０月份下＄７．５０为＄１１５５．６５，１２月份下跌＄８．３８为＄１１６６．２３。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA WASDE Report Recap

USDA released its August crop report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) update last week, incorporating USDA’s first NASS seasonal row crop yield estimates and the results of its special review of acreage for harvest following spring flooding. USDA’s first survey-based production estimate of soybean crop was a surprisingly low 80.9 million tonnes, down 735,000 tonnes from USDA’s July balance sheet. USDA did revise higher its harvested area estimate by 1.2 million acres. USDA’s yield of 40.5 bushels per acre was well below analysts expectations. USDA offset most of the lower production cut with crush reductions of 272,000 tonnes for 2007-08 and 408,000 tonnes for 2008-09.

USDA’s updated acreage estimates are far more influential than USDA’s yield estimate as August 1 yield estimates are inherently tenuous as August and September weather dominantly determine soybean yields. The average difference between USDA’s August production forecast and the final crop size has been 3.81 million tonnes over the last 20 years. USDA’s 2008-09 carryout has been reduced by 5 million bushels to a minimal-type carryout of 3.67 million tonnes.

At this juncture, USDA’s yield forecast appears to be very conservative relative to the weather that has been experienced, crop ratings for the crop and yield indications from recent industry surveys. Nevertheless, USDA’s smaller-than-expected crop likely is supportive for soybean complex futures that have dropped sharply over the last 5 weeks. However, USDA’s larger-than-expected corn production figure could be price depressing for soybeans as well.

NOPA July Crush Report

NOPA reported another surprisingly small crush last week. The NOPA crush for July was just 3.62 million tonnes, below the previous month’s 3.63 million tonnes, well below the previous year’s 3.86 million tonnes and below trade expectations for 3.78 million tonnes. USDA lowered its 2007-08 crush by 136,000 tonnes earlier last week to 49.8 million tonnes. The smaller crush resulted in a 37,200 tonne drop in NOPA soybean oil stocks from the previous month, which was below trade expectations for stocks to increase by 20,000 tonnes.

Concerns Over Farm Bill Implementation

After the 2002 Farm Bill was passed, it did not take long for some farm-state lawmakers and farm groups to complain about some USDA decisions regarding implementation. Similar concerns have surfaced regarding the 2008 Farm Bill. The latest complaints center on the not yet official procedure for USDA’s implementation of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program. It seems budget types want USDA to use 2006 and 2007, rather than 2007 and 2008 season average prices for the ACRE formula. Another complaint is on how USDA determines halting any government payments on farms with 10 or fewer acres.

Farm-state lawmakers, as usual, will have the final say on how USDA implements the omnibus farm bill. If it is not farmer-friendly, Congress will write legislation mandating certain procedures be followed, as they have done – or threatened to do – in the past. Some of the disgruntled are threatening to hold up the confirmation of current USDA Under Secretary Mark Keenum to join the Farm Credit Administration board – until farm-state senators are assured that USDA is implementing the farm bill the way Congress intended.

USDA Could Revisit CRP Decision

Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said last week that USDA could revisit whether to allow CRP land to be released early and without penalty in 2008 if there was growing pressure on commodity prices. “If we start seeing some pressure on commodity prices again because of supply it might be something that we want to revisit,” Schafer said. “I don’t anticipate doing it but certainly the door is open.”

After weeks of review, the department decided in late July there was no need to release land from the 34.7-million-acre program. USDA pointed to beneficial weather, falling prices in the grain market and more land becoming available for production.

China Continues to Import Huge Amount of Soybeans

China has been the world’s largest importer of soybeans for about the past 5 years, but soybean shipments to China have been exceptionally large in the past 4 months. Combined soybean exports to China from the United States, Brazil and Argentina exceeded 4.1 million tonnes in both April and July and totaled 3.9 million tonnes in May. June shipments that were limited to 3.4 million tonnes by the Argentine farmer strike still were about 34 percent higher than last year.

In addition to China’s large purchases of soybeans from South America, U.S. soybean exports to China have been larger than normal during the second half of the current marketing year due to uncertainty about execution of Argentine shipments due to the intermittent strikes that occurred from March to July. Monthly U.S. soybean shipments to China normally range from zero to 200,000 tonnes (7.3 million bushels) during May, June and July, but have exceeded 500,000 tonnes (18.4 million bushels) in each of those months this year.

Industry expectations are that China’s soybean imports will total 37.9 million tonnes for the 2007-08 (October-September) marketing year, which would be up 32 percent from last year’s 28.7 million. However, a more modest increase to 38.5 million tonnes is projected for 2008-09 as China is believed to be rebuilding soybean stocks this year and its 2008 soybean crop is expected to increase to 16.0 million tonnes from last year’s disappointing 13.5-million-tonne crop.

Soy Complex Lower Following NOPA Crush And USDA Export Reports

The soy complex closed down on August 14 following disappointing NOPA crush and USDA export sales reports. There also was talk of China washing out of some soybean purchases. Soybean oil futures were pressure by lower petroleum markets, but soybean oil futures remain a couple of cents below biodiesel breakeven support and the oil product share was firmer. September bean futures closed down $4.50, finishing at $464.90; November lost $3.67, closing at $468.11; and January was down $3.49, ending at $474.72. September meal decreased $8.05 closing at $383.82; October was $5.07 lower, finishing at $380.73; and December meal closed down $4.96, ending at $383.05. September soyoil was $7.72 lower to finish at $1149.04; October was down $7.50, closing at $1155.65; and December was $8.38 lower, closing at $1166.23.