美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年8月4日）

美国农业部不放弃对提前解约行为的罚款制约

美国农业部上周宣布，现阶段将不允许未经缴纳罚款就提前解除环保休耕计划（CRP）下的合约。在宣布这一声明时，美国农业部长艾德∙谢弗说，“目前的迹象表明，今年玉米和大豆所受到的影响将没有原先所担心的那么严重。”当问及这是否是有关此事的“最终”决定时，谢弗说，他无法下定论，因为客观条件可能发生变化。

负责农业规划的美国联邦安全署副署长约翰∙约翰逊今年４月曾透露，支付了罚款的CRP签约者已从CRP中提取了３４，０００英亩（合１３，８００公顷）土地，５月份还将提取３７，０００英亩（合１５，０００公顷）。“这是我们看到的最大提取量，”他说。“过去１９个月来，因提前解约而支付罚款的土地月均提取量超过１５，０００英亩（合６，０７０公顷）。据此，他表示，这１９个月因提前解约而支付罚款的土地总提取量为２８８，７２６英亩（合１１７，０００公顷）。

谢弗还指出，解约行为在环保休耕计划处于逐渐到期之时接踵而来。此外，谢弗表示，２００８年农业法案下调了CRP中的面积上限，因此美国农业部目前不会考虑签订任何新的CRP常规合约。

谢弗还说，近来商品价格的猛跌没有影响即将实施的CRP决策。“在认真分析了最近的作物报告、天气状况、谷物市价走势及作物播种面积扩大的可能性之后，我们决定现阶段暂不放弃对提前解约行为的罚款制约，”他说。谢弗接着指出，玉米和大豆的现货价格比上个月创下的最高纪录分别下降了２５％和１４％，这是“我们考虑的另外一个因素．．．．．．”

如果不是因为目前作物前景看好，美国农业部对提前解约罚款制的坚持本应给市场带来助涨推力。如果近来玉米和大豆的长势没有改善，美国农业部也许将被迫解除CRP对土地的约束。不过，尽管２００８－２００９年度玉米似乎将有充足的供应，但大豆供应却仍将保持紧张，除非美国农业部公布的播种面积降幅低于６月３０日的预测，且/或关键的８月份继续保持有利于大豆作物的天气。

阿根廷大豆出口商继续抗议政府；６月份出口量下滑

阿根廷报纸《Clarin》报道说，为促进玉米和小麦产量，政府正在考虑上调大豆出口税、下调玉米和小麦出口税的计划。《Clarin》说，大豆出口税可能会上调５个百分点至４０％，玉米出口税可能从２５％下调至２０％，小麦出口税可能从目前的２８％下调至２３％。

政府的这一决定再次激起了国内大豆出口商的愤怒，主要出口港罗萨里奥因此而陷入停顿。政府的举措意味着大豆购买商可能不得不为以前已出售的大豆支付更高的出口税。

谷物出口商集团CEC和CIARA发布的一份联合声明称，该决议包含“不符合法律规定的矛盾之处，”他们表示将继续研究该决议。

另据相关消息，动物产品和食品检验机构Senasa的最新数据显示，阿根廷６月份的大豆出口量为１，１８４，９０６吨，比去年同期的１，２６６，８８７吨下降６．５％。今年上半年的大豆出口总量为４，６９１，９５０吨，高于去年同期的４，２９９，３２８吨。

６月份的豆粕出口量为８４２，３２５吨，低于去年的１，２２９，５９５吨。上半年的豆粕出口量为５，６１６，１８５吨，低于去年同期的６，２２７，８３６。颗粒豆粕和豆饼的出口量为２１２，１９７吨，低于去年同期的２３２，５５２吨。今年上半年颗粒豆粕和豆饼的出口总量为１，２０７，９４９吨，低于去年同期的１，２５３，７５３吨。

６月份的豆油出口量为２１３，１７１吨，低于去年同期的３３８，４９６吨。Senasa说，今年上半年的豆油出口量为１，４４３，９５２吨，高于去年同期的１，４２４，５１０吨。

另外，名为ONCCA的农业贸易机构说，截止６月３０日，阿根廷油籽行业的大豆库存总量为１１，２０７，７８５吨，比去年同期的１５，９１４，０５４吨下降３０％。

中国在奥运会前夕加大豆油进口量

中国在６月份的豆油进口量翻了一番多。为平抑国内市场物价并确保奥运会和节日季节来临之前供货充足，政府正在设法扩大食用油及大豆储备。据中国关税总局公布，上个月的豆油进口量为１６９，１７５吨，比２００７年高１０７．９％，今年上半年的大豆进口量为１３０万吨，比去年同期高１４．８６％。

６月份阿根廷成为中国最大的豆油供应商，共向中国出口了８５，５７５吨豆油，但是由于罗萨里奥港无法正常运营，且阿根廷农场主因不满政府的出口税计划而举行抗议，今年到目前为止的出口总量已比去年同期下降了３．９％，降至８４８，２９９吨。

上海的交易商说，为平抑国内食用油价格并控制通货膨胀，政府于７月份购进了大约４０万吨豆油及１００万吨大豆作为储备。

由于玉米市场及石油市场看跌，大豆类产品期价有升有降

由于玉米市场和石油市场出现下跌之势，７月３１日收盘时大豆类产品期价有升有降。尽管能源价格有所下跌，但豆油期价却基本没有发生变化，这是因为豆油期价已上升至略微超过生物柴油盈亏平衡点的水平。美国农业部有关环保休耕计划（CRP）的决定继续支撑着２００９作物年度大豆及豆粕的期货价格，而２００９作物年度的豆油期价则跟随能源行情一起下跌。８月份大豆期货价格上涨＄０．６４为＄５１２．８５，９月份下跌＄０．４６为＄５１２．２９，１１月份下跌＄０．３７为５１５．８８；８月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１．１０为＄４１８．４３，９月下跌＄０．２２为＄４１４．９１，１０月份下跌＄１．１０为＄４１１．７１；８月份豆油期货价格不变，仍为＄１２８４．４０，９月份下跌＄０．４４为＄１２８９．９１，１０月份下跌＄０．２２为＄１２９７．１９。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Does Not Allow Penalty Free Early Opt-Out Of CRP

USDA officials last week announced it will not allow penalty-free early out on Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts at this time. In making the announcement, USDA Secretary Ed Schafer said, “The indications, so far, are the impact on this year’s corn and soybean crops will be less than what was originally feared.” As for whether this is the “final” word on this issue, Schafer said that he would not commit totally to that as conditions could change.

FSA Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs John Johnson detailed that in April of this year, CRP contract holders paid the penalty to extract 34,000 acres (13,800 hectares) from the CRP and 37,000 (15,000 hectares) in May. “That’s the high point we’ve seen,” he noted. “Over the last 19 months, we have seen an average of over 15,000 acres [6,070 hectares] per month” where the penalty for exiting those contracts early was paid. Over the 19 months, 288,726 acres (117,000 hectares) have paid the penalties to exit CRP early, he detailed.

Schafer also pointed out acreage was going to be exiting the program already via regular maturities. In addition, Schafer noted the acreage cap in the CRP was lowered in the 2008 Farm Bill and, therefore, USDA was not contemplating holding any new general CRP signups at this time.

Schafer also said that recent plunge in commodity prices did not impact coming CRP Decision. “After carefully considering the recent crop reports, weather conditions, the price trends we’re seeing in the grain markets and the likelihood of increasing land for crop production, we have decided not to allow the penalty-free release of CRP land at this time,” he said. Schafer then noted that cash prices for corn are down 25 percent and for soybeans are 14 percent from their record highs just last month and that was “another factor we considered....”

USDA’s decision to not allow a penalty free early out of the CRP would have been a bullish boost for the market were it not for the current favorable crop prospects. Without the recent improvement in the corn and soybean crops, USDA likely would have been forced to open up the CRP. However, while it appears that corn supplies will be adequate for 2008-09, soybean supplies will remain tight in 2008-09 unless USDA reflects smaller acreage abandonment than it did on June 30 and/or the soybean crop benefits from continued favorable weather through the critical month of August.

Argentine Soybean Exporters Continue To Battle Government; Exports Slide In June

The Argentine newspaper Clarin reported the country’s government is considering a plan to increase the export tax on soybeans and lower the export tax for corn and wheat in an attempt to boost corn and wheat production. Clarin said soybean export taxes could be raised by 5 percentage points to 40 percent, while corn export taxes would decrease to 20 percent from 25 percent, and wheat export levies would go down to 23 percent compared with the current 28 percent rate.

The government’s decision has sparked fresh anger among soybean exporters in the South American and activity at the main export port of Rosario has ground to a halt as a result. The government move means that soybean buyers may be forced to pay a higher rate of export tax for previously sold goods.

Grains exporter groups CEC and CIARA issued a joint statement which said the resolution contained “inconsistencies that do not conform with the letter of the law,” adding they would continue to study the measure.

In related news, Argentina’s soybean shipments in June totaled 1,184,906 tonnes, down 6.5 percent from 1,266,887 tonnes during the same month a year earlier, according to the latest data from the animal and food-inspection agency, Senasa. Soybean shipments during the first half of the year totaled 4,691,950 tonnes, up from 4,299,328 tonnes during the same period a year ago.

Soymeal exports in June totaled 842,325 tonnes, down from 1,229,595 tonnes a year earlier. Soymeal exports during the first half of the year reached 5,616,185 tonnes, down from 6,227,836 tonnes a year earlier. June soy pellet and cake exports totaled 212,197 tonnes, compared with 232,552 tonnes in June 2007. Soy pellet and cake exports during the first six months of the year totaled 1,207,949 tonnes, down from 1,253,753 tonnes a year ago.

Soyoil exports in June totaled 213,171 tonnes, down from 338,496 tonnes a year earlier. Soyoil exports during the first half of the year reached 1,443,952 tonnes, up from 1,424,510 tonnes a year earlier, according to Senasa.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s oilseed industry held soybean stocks totaling 11,207,785 tonnes as of June 30, down 30 percent from the 15,914,054 tonnes held at the same date in 2007, according to the agriculture trade office known as ONCCA.

China Increases Soyoil Imports Ahead Of Olympic Games

China’s imports of soyoil more than doubled in June and the government is looking to build reserves of the edible oil and soybeans in an effort to bring down prices in the domestic market and secure supplies ahead of the Olympics and festival season. Imports of soyoil last month were 169,175 tonnes, up 107.9 percent compared with June 2007, and total imports in the first half of 2008 now stand at 1.3 million tonnes, a 14.86 percent rise from the opening six months of last year, the General Administration of Customs of China announced.

Argentina was the biggest supplier of soyoil to China in June, providing 85,575 tonnes, but disruption at Rosario port and protests by farmers in the South American country against the government’s soybean tax scheme saw total exports fall 3.9 percent so far this year versus 2007 to 848,299 tonnes.

Traders in Shanghai said the government has bought around 400,000 tonnes of soyoil in July and up to 1 million tonnes of soybeans for its reserves, as it looks to dampen local prices of the edible oil and tame inflation.

Soy Complex Mixed As Corn And Petroleum Markets Fall

The soy complex closed mixed on July 31 reflecting a drop in corn and the petroleum markets. Despite the drop in energy prices, soybean oil futures were little changed as soybean oil futures rose a bit above biodiesel breakeven support. USDA’s CRP decision continued to boost 2009-crop soybean and soybean meal futures with 2009-crop soybean oil futures lower along with the energy markets. August bean futures closed up $0.64, finishing at $512.85; September lost $0.46, closing at $512.29; and November was down $0.37, ending at $515.88. August meal increased $1.10 closing at $418.43; September was $0.22 lower, finishing at $414.91; and October meal closed down $1.10, ending at $411.71. August soyoil was unchanged to finish at $1284.40; September was down $0.44, closing at $1289.91; and October was $0.22 lower, closing at $1297.19.