美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年7月28日）

普查局上调５月份压榨数字

上周普查局将５月份的压榨数字上调至４１５万吨，与油籽加工者协会的数字基本一致，而普查局公布的６月份压榨数字则略高于市场预计。但是就５、６两月份的豆油得率而言，普查局的数字似乎均低于油籽加工者协会。普查局将５月底的豆油库存上调３１８０吨至１３５万吨。由于豆油得率下降，普查局预计６月底的豆油库存为１３１万吨，略低于行业预计。Informa将采用普查局公布的压榨数字，但同时可能会采用５、６两月份的豆油得率数字，因为这两个月的数字比油籽加工者协会的数字更具一致性。

鲍卡斯公布新版税额减免“延期”提案

参议院财政委员会主席迈克斯•鲍卡斯（蒙大拿州民主党人）上周公布了一项税额减免“延期”提案（编号为Ｓ３３３５）。该提案将每加仑生物柴油１美元的生产税减免及针对性小型生物柴油生产企业每加仑１０美分的税费减免延期一年（至２００９年１２月３１日），同时还针对以生物质为原料的柴油燃料，将每加仑１美元的生产税减免延期一年（至２００９年１２月３１日）。该提案消除了当前法律在税收减免问题上对生物柴油和农业生物柴油的区分，不再要求可再生柴油燃料必须采用热分解法生产。因此，只要可用作家庭取暖油、机动车燃料或航空燃料，任何用生物质加工的柴油燃料，无论其采取何种加工方式，均可享受税费减免。该提案还明确规定，针对可再生柴油每加仑1美元的生产税减免仅限于以生物质为唯一原料的柴油燃料。用其它原料（如石油）与生物质共同加工的柴油燃料可作为替代燃料享受每加仑５０美分的税费减免。从２００８年５月１５日起，进口生物柴油和外销生物柴油将不再享受税费减免。该提案预计将使今后１０年的税款减免总额达到４．０１亿美元。

新的农业综合企业联盟组建生物柴油院外活动团体

一个由世界最大几家农业综合企业组成的联盟就生物柴油问题组建了一个专门游说美国政府的新团体。这个由孟山都公司（Monsanto）、艾地盟公司（Archer Daniels Midland）、迪尔公司(Deere & Company)及杜邦公司（DuPont）组建的新团体上周宣布，将通过全国性宣传和院外游说者向人们证明，即使全球谷物价格上升，也必须利用农作物生产乙醇、生物柴油等燃料。

该新组建团体名为充足食品与能源联盟，其组织者表示，他们希望改变有关生物柴油的争论。他们准备向消费者及政界证明，增加农业产量是一箭双雕之举。“我认为唯一的前进之路就是既满足食品需求，又满足能源安全需求，”孟山都公司技术总监罗伯特∙佛拉雷说。“我认为我们可以从科技的角度讨论这一问题。”

他说，孟山都公司希望到２０３０年能将大豆、玉米等作物的亩产翻一番。杜邦公司的子公司先锋良种公司（Pioneer Hi-Bred）计划在１０年内将其种子产量提高４０％。

该联盟没有透露此次宣传活动具体将投入多少资金，仅表示活动预算为几百万美元。但据《福布斯》报道，即使几百万美元也无法保证国会不出台生物柴油强制令。

阿根廷农产品浮动出口税制的废除可能使政府减少１５亿美元的收入

阿根廷总统上个月要求国会批准有关大豆及大豆产品的争议性浮动税制。该税制遭到农场主的强烈反对。自３月１日实行浮动税制以来，农场主们就不断举行罢工并设置路障。国会下议院在促成了小规模农场主税费减免之后通过了这项新税制。但是，当上周副总统投出打破均势的一票后，上议院以微弱多数票否决了该新税制。上议院的投票结果使总统不得不废除税率上调，将大豆出口税率恢复到３５％这一浮动税制实施以前的较低水平。由于新税制未获通过，农业部长及内阁总长均辞去政府职务。

同时，据布宜诺斯艾利斯媒体援引经济专家的话说，阿根廷政府取消谷物及油籽浮动出口税制的决定将使财政收入减少１２．５亿至１５亿美元。这一数额是新税制原本可以带来的增收额。政府３月份以来实施的浮动出口税制旨在根据国际市场价格的波动提高出口税，而如今却不得不恢复到３５％的固定税率。尽管财政收入低于预计，但阿根廷本财政年度预计仍有盈余，而且２００９年还能实现相当于GDP２％的盈余。但据阿根廷《国民日报》(La Nacion)报道，经济部长表示，明年有些政府部门必须削减开支。

行业分析机构预计２００８－２００９年度世界大豆产量将上升

据行业分析机构《油世界》报道，２００８－２００９年度全球大豆产量可能会上升到２．４１２６亿吨，比上一年度高１８５０万吨。《油世界》说，上个月全球大豆预估产量有所上调，关键性的美国产量有可能达到８１４０万吨，高于２００７－２００８年度的７２４０万吨。不过，《油世界》还补充说，天气因素仍使得美国大豆产量难以预测。

全球产量的大部分增长将被大豆库存的下降所吸收。２００８－２００９年度全球大豆的期初库存下降至６０５４万吨，低于上一年度７１８７万吨的期初库存。“世界大豆供应量的预期增幅仍相对适中，低于年度平均增幅，”《油世界》说。“这将抑制全球大豆压榨量的增长，因此，我们预计世界豆油和豆粕产量的增幅将低于预计。”但是，《油世界》仍预计世界大豆压榨量将从２００７－２００８年度的２．０４５６万吨上升至２００８（９月）－２００９（８月）年度的２．１０２亿吨。
 
由于玉米地带天气理想，多数大豆类产品期价下跌

由于６月份洪水和大雨推迟播种之后，玉米地带理想的天气给价格造成了压力，因此７月２４日收盘时多数大豆类产品期价下跌。不过，８月份仍是决定美国大豆单位产量的关键月份。８月份大豆期货价格下跌＄３．４０为＄５０８．９０，９月份下跌＄４．６８为＄５０４．４９，１１月份下跌＄４．０４为５０４．４９；８月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄２．５４为＄４１２．０４，９月＄下跌２．５４为＄４０５．４３，１０月份下跌＄１．４３为＄３９７．７１；８月份豆油期货价格上升＄３．３８为＄１２９９．１７，９月份上升＄８．３８为＄１３０６．２３，１０月份上升＄８．１６为＄１３１３．５０。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Census Revises May Crush Higher

The Census Bureau last week revised its May crush higher to 4.15 million tonnes, putting it in line with that implied by the NOPA crush, while the June crush was slightly above the market’s expectation. However, the oil yield reported by Census looks to be low relative to NOPA for both May and June. Census revised end-of-May soybean oil stocks 3,180 tonnes higher to 1.35 million tonnes, while soybean oil stocks reported at 1.31 million tonnes for the end of June were a bit below expectations due to the lower oil yield. Informa will adopt the Census crush numbers, but likely will assume oil yields for both May and June that are more consistent relative to those reported by NOPA.

Baucus Unveils New Version Of Tax “Extenders” Bill

Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) released a new version of a tax “extenders” bill (S 3335) last week. The bill extends for one year (through December 31, 2009) the $1.00 per gallon production tax credits for biodiesel and the small biodiesel producer credit of 10 cents per gallon. The bill also extends for one year (through December 31, 2009) the $1.00 per gallon production tax credit for diesel fuel created from biomass. The bill eliminates the current-law disparity in credit for biodiesel and agri-biodiesel and eliminates the requirement that renewable diesel fuel must be produced using a thermal depolymerization process. As a result, the credit will be available for any diesel fuel created from biomass without regard to the process used so long as the fuel is usable as home heating oil, as a fuel in vehicles, or as aviation jet fuel. The bill also clarifies that the $1 per gallon production credit for renewable diesel is limited to diesel fuel that is produced solely from biomass. Diesel fuel that is created by co-processing biomass with other feedstocks (e.g., petroleum) will be eligible for the 50 cent per gallon tax credit for alternative fuels. Biodiesel that is imported and sold for export will not be eligible for the credit effective May 15, 2008. The estimated cost of this proposal is $401 million over ten years.

New Agribusiness Coalition Creates Biofuels Lobby

A coalition of some of the largest agribusinesses in the world has formed a new group to lobby the U.S. government on biofuels. The new group - formed by Monsanto Co., Archer Daniels Midland, Deere & Co. and DuPont Co. - announced last week it will use national advertisements and lobbyists on Capitol Hill to build the case for using crops to make fuels like ethanol and biodiesel, even as grain prices climb worldwide.

Organizers of the newly formed Alliance for Abundant Food and Energy said they want to change the debate about biofuels. Their plan is to convince consumers and politicians that both goals can be met at once by increasing agricultural productivity. “I think the only path forward is one that meets both food and energy security demands,” said Monsanto’s Chief Technology Officer Robert Fraley. “I think we can add a component of science and technological perspective to the discussion.”

Monsanto hopes to double the yield-per-acre of crops like soybeans and corn by 2030, he said. Pioneer Hi-Bred, a division of DuPont, plans to boost yields of its seeds by 40 percent within a decade.

The alliance didn’t say how much it will spend on the campaign, beyond saying the project has a budget worth several million dollars. But even that kind of cash doesn’t guarantee Congress won’t revisit the wisdom of biofuels mandates, said Forbes.

Repeal Of Argentine Farm Export Tax Could Cost The Government Nearly $1.5 Billion

Argentina’s president last month asked the congress to ratify the controversial sliding-scale export tax on soybeans and products. The tax was met with heavy opposition from farmers, including intermittent strikes and roadblocks since it was first imposed in March. The lower house of congress had passed the new tax structure after adjusting it to include breaks for smaller farmers. However, the Senate narrowly rejected the measure this past week on a tie-breaking vote cast by the vice president. The Senate vote convinced the president to repeal the tax hike, returning the tax on soybeans to the flat rate of 35 percent that was in place before the sliding scale was introduced. In response to the failure of the legislation, both the ag secretary and cabinet chief have resigned from the Argentine government.

Meanwhile, the Argentine government’s decision to repeal the controversial grains and oilseeds sliding export tax system will cost the Treasury an estimated $1.25 to $1.5 billion, according to economic experts quoted in the Buenos Aires media. The sum is the difference between what the government was planning to collect with the new system implemented last March, which meant increasing taxes on exports depending on the price oscillation in international markets and the fixed rates of 35 percent to which the government was forced to return. In spite of the lesser revenue than forecast, Argentina is expected to end the financial year with a surplus, and again in 2009, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP. Nevertheless La Nacion reports the Ministry of Economy is saying some ministries must cut outlays for next year.

Industry Analyst Expects Increase in World Soybean Production In 2008-09

Global soybean output in the 2008-09 season is likely to rise to 241.26 million tonnes, up 18.5 million tonnes from the previous season, according to Oil World. The industry analyst said that world soybean production forecast had improved in the past month and the key U.S. crop is now likely to be 81.4 million tonnes, up from 72.4 million tonnes in 2007-08. However, weather concerns still made U.S. soybeans difficult to predict, it added.

Much of the greater global crop output will be absorbed by lower world 2008-09 opening soybean stocks to 60.54 million tonnes, down from 71.87 million tonnes at the start of the season last year. “The prospective growth in world soybean supplies will still be relatively modest and below the average annual growth,” Oil World said. “This will limit the increase in world soy crushings and as a result, we expect only a below-average increase in world output of soyoil and meal.” However, it still forecasts world soybean crushings in the September 2008 to August 2009 year to rise to 210.2 million tonnes, from 204.56 million tonnes in 2007-08.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Ideal Weather In Corn Belt

The soy complex closed lower on July 24, reflecting ideal weather in the Corn Belt, which burdened prices after flooding and excessive moisture delayed plantings in June. However, August is still the critical month for U.S. soybean yield determination. August bean futures closed down $3.40, finishing at $508.90; September lost $4.68, closing at $504.49; and November was down $4.04, ending at $504.49. August meal decreased $2.54 closing at $412.04; September was $2.54 lower, finishing at $405.43; and October meal closed down $1.43, ending at $397.71. August soyoil increased $8.38 to finish at $1299.17; September was up $8.38, closing at $1306.23; and October was $8.16 higher, closing at $1313.50.