美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年6月30日）

＊＊＊提示：７月４日是美国国庆假日，因此７月７日的《每周快报》将停发一期。７月１４日起恢复正常。＊＊＊

阿根廷罢工促进美国豆油出口

阿根廷的农场主罢工已使美国油脂出口达到近些年来的最快速度，豆油出口量因此持续上升。最新数字显示，３月份美国油脂出口量攀升至５２．３６２７万吨的高峰，４月份仅小幅滑落至４６．９９０９万吨。通常，美国油脂的月度出口量介于２０－３５万吨之间。

美国出口量上升是因为阿根廷农场主因不满出口税上调而阻止国内豆油出口，从而为美国提供了更多出口机会。２月份美国豆油出口量攀升至２２．７９１８万吨，３月份小幅降至１８．９３５６万吨，４月份再次回升至２２．２５３８万吨。

但是，由于美国老茬大豆库存已所剩无几，５、６月份的出口量可能会小幅下降。如果阿根廷阻止罢工的努力取得成效，那么美国７月份的出口则会出现更大幅度的下降。

３月份的压榨数字表明美国豆粕需求高涨

美国普查局公布另一份压榨报告后，分析人士对其中的一些评估数字提出了异议。普查局评估的５月份压榨量为４０９万吨，比行业预计低４．６３万吨，不过４月份的压榨量上调３．５４万吨后达到原先预期的４０１万吨。

虽然普查局公布的５月份豆油产量符合预期，但豆粕产量相对于美国油籽加工者协会公布的数字和普查局在本销售年度早些时候公布的数字而言，却大得不尽合理。豆粕库存在５月底攀升至３９．２万吨，这并没有什么特别，因为５月份的最后一天是周末。豆油库存为１３５万吨，适度低于行业预计。

分析人士认为，库存上升的原因在于国内食品消费量下降以及生物柴油行业需求下降。豆油价格受部分工厂关闭消息的影响不断上升，使得生物柴油继续处在挣扎之中。不过，强劲的出口需求减轻了月度压榨量上升的影响。

谢弗将在未来两周内决定是否解除环保休耕计划

美国农业部长艾德∙谢弗６月２６日说，他将在未来两周决定是否允许美国农民提前动用环保休耕计划中的闲置土地，并免于处罚。美国农业部官员说，中西部地区的洪水预计会使玉米大幅减产，因此即使免除针对提前动用休耕土地的处罚措施，也来不及开垦可在２００８年收获的新农田了。

“我原本计划针对２００９作物年度做决定，这只需要在８月份或９月初的某个时间来作出释放环保休耕地的决定。”谢弗说。“现在我们已加快了决策进程。目前我们正在考查相关问题，我希望在未来两三周内……公布我们下一步的行动方案。”

洪水可能导致政府加大对农场主的援助

中西部地区近来遭受洪水袭击的地区又连续出现多达数英寸的降雨，因此一些立法议员认为受灾地区的农场主、牧场主及其它受灾人群需要得到更多紧急援助。参议院６月２６日在布什总统回家度假一周之前向总统发去了伊拉克战争预算法案。该法案包括对外援助资金和针对中西部洪灾地区２６．５亿美元的紧急救济。

作为新农业法案中长期农业灾难援助计划的一部分，新的灾难援助法可能会专门授权美国农业部预付农业灾难援助款。关于目前是否有权提前预付，美国农业部律师的意见存在分歧。如果农业部无权预付，那么受灾农场主只有等到２００９年１０月才能得到援助。

一些立法议员及布什政府官员可能会努力通过立法形式降低乙醇进口税，作为对农业灾难和其它灾难的额外援助。预计立法议员及布什政府对其它事项可能会采取同样措施，因为国会在大选年度的一切行动都将带有越来越明显的政治色彩，任何前述措施都将被视为或许是最后一项“必须通过”的法案。

生物柴油船舶数量需增加

世界生物柴油产量预计在２０１０年将上升到每天１３０万桶，２０３０年将达到每天２７０万桶，因此，英国劳氏船级社(Lloyd’s Register)告诫说，全球的船舶数量可能“无法满足”生物柴油不断增长的运输需求，除非今后２０年再建造４００艘船舶。挪威化学品货轮运输公司的一位资深分析师对劳氏船级社说，生物柴油运量目前占总运量的８％以上，高于２００２年时的２％。动植物油占总运量的５％。

由于美国中西部地区遭遇更多降雨，大豆类产品期价上升

由于美国中西部一些地区遭遇大雨、原油价格大幅上涨以及美元汇率下降，６月２６日收盘时大豆类产品价格上升。最近一次的降雨可能会阻止今年部分土地播种或改种大豆。大豆和豆粕期价经过近期的防御之后，目前已接近合约价最高点。大豆产量的下降空间并不大，因为即使大豆长势正常，供需形势也将趋于紧张。美国农业部６月１日的库存预测将表明老茬大豆的紧张程度。７月／１１月的价格倒挂走势较为适度，意味着美国农业部将以高于预计的库存预测令市场吃惊。对预测产量的再一次忧虑以及带来通胀的商品采购使市场看涨之势变得难以抵挡，供需平衡表不断变化，也使得价格只有达到甚至超过目前的水平才能抑制需求。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄１３．５０为＄５７８．４３，８月份上升＄１２．５８为＄５７８．４３，９月份上升＄１２．８６为５７３．９３；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１２．１３为＄４６４．２９，８月＄上升１２．３５为＄４６１．８６，９月份上升＄１１．５７为＄４５７．４５；７月份豆油期货价格上升＄３１．９７为＄１４４７．５４，８月份上升＄３１．９７为＄１４５５．０４，９月份上升＄３１．９７为＄１４６２．９７。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

***Note: The Soy Export Weekly Update will not be published on July 7 in recognition of the July 4th holiday in the United States. Publication will resume on July 14.***

Strike In Argentina Benefits U.S. Soyoil Exports

There have been increased sales of soyoil because of the farmer disputes in Argentina, which has helped U.S. exports of oils and fats hit their fastest pace in years. New figures show that U.S. oil and fat exports surged to a peak of 523,627 tonnes in March and only slipped slightly to 469,909 tonnes in April. Ordinarily, U.S. exports would fluctuate from 200,000 to 350,000 tonnes.

The spike has been created by additional sales opportunities as farmers in Argentina prevented soyoil exports as part of their protests against export tax hikes. U.S. soyoil exports jumped to a peak of 227,918 tonnes in February, eased a little in March to 189,356 tonnes, before jumping back up to 222,538 tonnes in April.

However, with U.S. old crop soybean inventories drying up, exports in May and June might be slightly lower, while July could drop more dramatically if a tentative end to strike action in Argentina holds.

May Crush Shows High Demand For U.S. Soymeal

The Census Bureau released another crush report that contains estimates with which analysts have taken exception to. The May crush was estimated by Census at 4.09 million tonnes, which was 46,300 tonnes smaller than the industry expected, but the April crush was revised up by 35,400 tonnes to 4.01 million tonnes as had anticipated.

While the May soybean oil yield reported by Census was as expected, the soybean meal yield was unreasonably large relative to the NOPA meal yield and Census meal yields reported previously in the marketing year. Soybean meal stocks at the end of May jumped to 392,000 tonnes, which is not unusual when the last day of the month is on a weekend. Soybean oil stocks were moderately below trade expectations at 1.35 million tonnes.

Analysts cite slower domestic food use and declining demand from the biodiesel industry for the increase in stocks. Biodiesel continues to struggle amid high soya oil values amid reports of some plant closures. However, offsetting some of the impact of a higher monthly crush was strong export demand.

Schafer To Decide On CRP Release In Next Two Weeks

USDA Secretary Ed Schafer said on June 26 he will decide over the next two weeks whether U.S. farmers will be allowed to take idled acres out of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) early and without penalty. In the event that early-release penalties are waived, though, it would be too late to open up new farm land that could be harvested in 2008 when corn production is expected to be significantly diminished due to flooding in the Midwest, according to USDA officials.

“I was hoping to make a decision on the (2009) crop year, as it relates to early release of (the CRP) sometime in August or early September,” Schafer said. “We’ve accelerated that decision process. We’re visiting about these things as we speak and I hope to be making some announcement on which way we’re going to go...over the next couple of weeks.”

Floods May Lead To Extra Federal Assistance To Farmers

With multiple-inch rains continuing in recently flooded portions of the Midwest, some lawmakers are predicting the need for more emergency assistance for farmers, ranchers and others in the affected areas. The Senate on June 26 sent to President Bush funding for the Iraq war, before heading home for a weeklong break. The legislation includes foreign aid funds and $2.65 billion in emergency relief for flooded Midwestern states.

Some possibilities for a new disaster aid bill could include specific legislative authority for USDA to make advance ag disaster payments as part of the new farm bill’s permanent ag disaster program. USDA lawyers are split on whether there is current authority for such advance payouts. If not, affected farmers would have to wait until Oct. 2009 for the aid.

Some lawmakers and Bush administration officials would likely make a move to legislate a lower ethanol import tariff as part of any additional ag and other disaster aid funding. The same can be expected for other items that lawmakers and the administration may want because any such measure would be seen as perhaps the last “must pass” bill in an election year that will increasingly show Congress is all about politics.

More Biofuel Ships Needed

With world biofuels production set to rise from 1.3 million barrels per day in 2010 to 2.7 million barrels per day in 2030, Lloyd’s Register has warned that the world shipping fleet might be “unable to cope” with transporting increased amounts of biodiesel unless an extra 400 vessels are built over the next 20 years. Klaus Walderhaug, a senior analyst with Norwegian chemical tanker company Odfjell, told Lloyd’s Register that the biofuels trade now contributes over 8 percent of total tonnage, up from 2 percent in 2002. Vegetable oils and fats contribute a further 5 percent.

Soy Complex Higher As More Rain Hits The Midwestern United States

The soy complex closed higher on June 26 reflecting heavy rains in some areas of the Midwest, sharply higher crude oil prices and a sell off in the U.S. dollar. The latest round of rain likely will prevent some land from getting planted or replanted to soybeans this year. After being on the defensive recently, soybean and soybean meal futures are close to making new contract highs. There is not much room for a crop production shortfall as the soybean supply and demand outlook looks to be tight even with normal growing conditions. USDA’s June 1 stocks estimate will tell just how tight the old-crop situation is. The modest July/November inverse hints that USDA will surprise the market with larger-than-expected stocks. Renewed crop production concerns combined with inflationary commodity buying makes the path of least resistance for the markets higher amid a precarious supply and demand balance that could require prices to be this high or higher to ration demand. July bean futures closed up $13.50, finishing at $578.43; August gained $12.58, closing at $578.43; and September was up $12.86, ending at $573.93. July meal increased $12.13 closing at $464.29; August was $12.35 higher, finishing at $461.86; and September meal closed up $11.57, ending at $457.45. July soyoil increased $31.97 to finish at $1447.54; August was up $31.97, closing at $1455.04; and September was $31.97 higher, closing at $1462.97.