美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年6月23日）

美国农业部上调２００７－２００８年度大豆出口量预测

美国农业部在本月的供需报告中将美国的大豆出口预测上调了５４．４万吨，将老茬结转库存预测下调至３４０万吨，这使得２００７－２００８年度大豆的供求关系变得紧张起来。新茬大豆供需数字的唯一调整是，２００８－２００９年度的压榨量下调了２７．２万吨，这一下调缓解了２００８－２００９年度结转库存下调至４７６万吨所造成的影响。

在本次对全球２００８－２００９年度所做的首次预测中，美国农业部预计，巴西在下一年度的大豆产量将达到６４００万吨，阿根廷的大豆产量将达到４８００万吨。这两个数字均与驻外专员对该国产量所做的预测一致，反映出巴西播种扩大了５．６％，阿根廷播种面积扩大了１．８％。中国在２００８－２００９年度的大豆进口预计将达到３５５０万吨，比２００７－２００８年度高１５０万吨。就大豆产品而言，美国农业部上调了老茬和新茬豆粕的出口量，同时下调了国内消费量。至于豆油，美国农业部下调了２００７－２００８年度和２００８－２００９年度用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油）的豆油数量，并将２００７－２００８年度的豆油出口量上调至１４１万吨。

美国农业部将调查中西部农场主，以确定洪水造成的破坏程度

官方６月１９日表示，美国农业部将与中西部６个州的农场主联系，以评估大雨和春洪将会对大豆、玉米及高粱的收成造成多大影响。这项特殊调查将在依利诺伊州、印第安纳州、明尼苏达州、密苏里州和威斯康星州的受灾地区进行。

美国农业部将于６月３０日发布年度播种面积报告。该报告将列明各州的作物播种面积，并对收获面积进行评估。报告中的数字将基于６月份前两个星期所做的调查。美国农业部下属的国家农业统计处（ＮＡＳＳ）在一份报告中说，他们已在最严重的洪水发生之前收集到了大部分数据。“但是为了更加准确地测定播种总面积中的谷物收获面积，ＮＡＳＳ将在６月２３日的那一周内再次采访依利诺伊州、印第安纳州、明尼苏达州、密苏里州和威斯康星州受灾地区的农民，”ＮＡＳＳ在该报告中说。“通过采访，我们将获得农民有关玉米、大豆和高粱播种意向的更多信息。”

“有些农民可能很难联系到，或者他们仍在考虑该种哪种作物，因此ＮＡＳＳ还计划于７月份针对播种面积和收获面积进行一次更为广泛的调查。调查结果将在８月１２日的作物产量报告中公布。”

密切关注播种面积最新动向的将不仅是交易商和消费者，还将包括环保署（ＥＰＡ），因为ＥＰＡ将在７月２５日之前做出有关可再生燃料标准（ＲＦＳ）弃权请求的决定。关于这一点，有消息人士说，尽管今年９０亿加仑的ＲＦＳ指标是一项消费量指标，而不是产量指标，但如果以今年到目前为止任何一个月的乙醇产量为基数计算，年度产量均无法达到或超过９０亿加仑。

不过，若以３月份的乙醇产量为基数计算，则年度产量可达８６亿加仑，如果再加上５亿加仑的进口，则可完成９０亿加仑的消费量指标。尽管今年有许多乙醇工厂将投入生产，但也有一些工厂推迟了开工日期。一些老工厂因经济原因而关闭，还有一些工厂因洪水而关闭（至少是暂时关闭）。消息人士说，无论因为什么原因，如果ＥＰＡ认为美国不能生产足够的乙醇，他们会灵活地修改使用量指标，目前改变ＲＦＳ的可能性越来越大。

阿根廷农场主继续罢工

阿根廷农场主与政府之间的争议仍未解决，大豆运输因受阻而无法运往出口地点和压榨工厂，使大豆及大豆产品出口遭受重创，而近期大豆及豆粕期货市场则因此受到支持。豆油价格已达到抑制需求的水平，而大豆和豆粕可能只有在需求进一步上升后才有可能限量供应，具体取决于今年美国的大豆产量及南美大豆面积的增幅。

同时，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯６月１８日对数千支持者说，３个月的罢工是不民主的，她要求农场主撤消已造成阿根廷全国食品短缺的路障。费尔南德斯还说，上调出口税是为了使国内１０００万穷困人群分享激增的农场利润。农场主们则抗议说，出口税的上调使他们难以为生，他们需要将利润再次投资，以提高产量，满足不断上涨的需求。

阿根廷４个主要农场主团体的领导说，他们将使罢工持续到６月２０日午夜。阿根廷农业联盟负责人艾德瓦多·布兹说，谷物出口将被继续阻止，公路上运输谷物的卡车将被封锁，但易腐烂的食品及肉类将被允许通行。

费尔南德斯上周还宣布，她将向国会上议院和下议院发送一份议案，以讨论她于３月１１日通过总统令实施的出口税制。费尔南德斯的庇隆派在两院中拥有多数席位。

农场团体坚持认为，总统发送议案只是为了让立法机构盖章了事。“我们非常重视总统向国会发送议案这一民主姿态，”布兹说。“但我们不同意将议案发送给议院，”他说，因为议案只可能使这项有争议的出口税上调措施获得批准。

由于美国中西部地区天气变干，多数大豆类产品期价下跌

６月１９日收盘时大豆类产品价格下跌。新茬大豆期价目前正面临两方面的压力：首先，美国中西产地区天气变干，为大豆播种创造了条件，其次，尽管大豆期价在本播种年度较晚时候才超过１５美元，但仍能给大豆播种带来强大激励。市场原先对洪灾的反应也许过于强烈，但现在天气形势已转好，因此今后因供货量短缺而迫使２００８－２００９年度蛋白粕和饲料谷物限量供应的可能性将不会太大。７月份大豆期货价格下跌＄３．８６为＄５６７．８７，８月份下跌＄４．７８为＄５６８．７９，９月份下跌＄４．６３为５６１．４４；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２．６５为＄４６２．４１，８月＄上升１．４３为＄４５９．００，９月份下跌＄０．３３为＄４５１．９４；７月份豆油期货价格下跌＄２９．５４为＄１４１３．５９，８月份下跌＄２９．５４为＄１４２１．０９，９月份下跌＄２９．７６为＄１４２８．８０。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Increases 2007-08 Soybean Export Estimate

USDA tightened up its 2007-08 soybean balance sheet in this month’s supply and demand report when it increased U.S. exports by 544,000 tonnes and reduced the old-crop carryout to 3.4 million tonnes. The only change in the new-crop balance sheet was a 272,000 tonne reduction in 2008-09 crush that moderated the reduction the 2008-09 carryout to 4.76 million tonnes.

In its first world forecasts for 2008-09, USDA pegged next year’s Brazil soybean crop at 64 million tonnes and Argentina’s crop at 48 million tonnes. Both figures were in line with what the attaché for each country suggested and reflected a 5.6-percent increase in Brazil’s area and a 1.8-percent increase in Argentina’s area. China’s soybean imports were forecast at 35.5 million tonnes for 2008-09, up 1.5 million tonnes from 2007-08. On the product side, USDA boosted both old- and new-crop soybean meal exports and reduced domestic usage. For soybean oil, USDA reduced soybean oil use in methyl ester (biodiesel) production for both 2007-08 and 2008-09 and hiked 2007-08 soybean oil exports to 1.41 million tonnes.

USDA To Survey Farmers In Midwest To Determine Extent Of Flood Damage

USDA will contact farmers in six Midwest states to gauge how heavy rains and spring floods will affect the soybean, corn and sorghum harvests, officials said on June 19. The special surveys will be in storm-hit areas of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin.

USDA will release its annual Acreage report on June 30. The report lists crop plantings by state and estimates harvested area. The figures are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said in a statement that it gathered most of the data before the worst of the flooding occurred. “But in an effort to more accurately determine how much of the planted area actually will be harvested for grain, NASS will re-interview producers during the week of June 23 in affected areas of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin,” NASS said in the statement. “This will provide additional information about producers’ harvesting intentions for corn, soybeans and sorghum.”

“Since some producers may be difficult to contact or still may be assessing their options, NASS also plans to conduct a more extensive update of planted and harvested acreage in July. This information will be reflected in the Aug. 12 Crop Production report.”

The updated acreage information will be closed watched not only by traders and commodity consumers, but the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which will make a decision on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) waiver request by July 25. In that regard, one source noted that while the RFS mandate of 9 billion gallons for this year is a usage mandate and not a production mandate, the monthly ethanol production so far this year has never annualized to or beyond 9 billion gallons.

However, March ethanol production would annualize to 8.6 billion gallons and the addition of some 500 million gallons of imports would allow the 9-billion-gallon usage mandate to be met. While there are numerous ethanol plants slated to come on line this year, some of these plants have delayed start ups. And there are a few older plants that have been shut down for economic reasons and some plants have been shut down – at least temporarily – due to flooding. For whatever reason, if the EPA determines that the U.S. cannot produce enough ethanol, they have wide flexibility to alter the usage mandate – and the odds of a change in the RFS are rising, according to sources.

Argentina’s Farmer Strike Continues

The dispute between farmers and the government in Argentina has yet to be resolved and the blockade on soybean shipments to export and crushing facilities is taking its toll on exports of soybean and products, bolstering the strength of the front end of the soybean and soybean meal futures markets. Soybean oil prices have reached levels that have rationed demand while soybean and soybean meal demand may have to work higher to ration depending on the outcome of this year’s U.S. soybean crop and the ability of South American farmers to expand area.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez told thousands of supporters on June 18 that a three-month strike was undemocratic and demanded that farmers lift road blockades that have caused food shortages across Argentina. Fernandez continues to say the export tax increases are needed to share soaring farm profits with Argentina’s 10 million poor. Farmers contend the higher taxes make it hard for them to make a living and that they need to reinvest profits to increase production to meet rising demand.

The leaders of Argentina’s four main farmers’ groups said that they would continue the strike until midnight on June 20. Eduardo Buzzi, head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, said that grain exports would remain suspended and trucks carrying grains would be blocked on highways, but perishable food products and meat will be allowed to pass.

Fernandez also announced last week that she was sending a bill to Argentina’s two houses of Congress to debate the taxes, which she first implemented by presidential decree on March 11. Fernandez’s Peronist party has a majority in both houses.

Farm groups maintain that the president only wants a rubber stamp from lawmakers. “We value the democratic gesture of sending the matter to Congress,” Buzzi said. “But we do not agree with the project as it was sent to Congress,” he said, since the bill only allows for the ratification of the contentious export tax increase.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower As Midwestern United States’ Weather Turns Drier

The soy complex closed mostly lower on June 19. New-crop soybean futures are coming under pressure from drier weather in the Midwest that will allow soybeans to be planted as well as soybean futures in excess of $15 that could lead to a strong incentive to plant despite being late in the planting season. While the market may have overreacted to the flooding concerns, now that the weather pattern has turned favorable, it will not take much of supply shortfall to require the rationing of protein meals and feed grains in 2008-09. July bean futures closed down $3.86, finishing at $567.87; August lost $4.78, closing at $568.79; and September was down $6.43, ending at $561.44. July meal increased $2.65 closing at $462.41; August was $1.43 higher, finishing at $459.00; and September meal closed down $0.33, ending at $451.94. July soyoil decreased $29.54 to finish at $1413.59; August was down $29.54, closing at $1421.09; and September was $29.76 lower, closing at $1428.80.