美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年6月16日）

全球进口需求继续增长，但增长部分全部来自中国

据主要出口国的初步出口数据显示，在３－５月份这一季度，全球进口需求继续增长。但与去年不同的是，今年的增长完全来自中国，欧盟的进口需要没有变化，全球其它国家和地区的进口需求则连续第二个季度小幅下降。３－５月份巴西的大豆出口量猛增了约９０万吨，而阿根廷的出口量仅上升了１０万吨。至于３－５月份的豆粕出口量，巴西比去年同期上升了不到１０万吨，美国上升了近２０万吨，印度大幅上升了６０万吨，阿根廷则下降了近１００万吨。

阿根廷３月份大豆和豆粕出口量下降的原因在于，农场主罢工阻碍了新茬大豆向出口地点和压榨工厂的运输。４月份和５月份阿根廷的大豆出口开始反弹，超过了去年同期水平，但豆粕出口却因农场主再次罢工而依然落后于去年。阿根廷豆粕出口量的下降与美国、巴西、印度出口量的上升基本相抵，因此全球平淡的豆粕进口需求得到满足。满足中国大豆进口需求增长的主要是巴西新茬大豆的大量供应，其次则是美国老茬大豆的快速清仓式供应。展望２００８－２００９年度，中国的大豆进口需求预计会放慢，因为国内产量将有所回升。全球豆粕进口需求预计会小幅下降，因为欧盟谷物产量的上升将导致蛋白粕消费量下降。

普查局调整豆油库存数字；４月份用于生物柴油的豆油数量下降

美国普查局上周公布了２００７年动植物油年度总结报告。一项主要的调整是，各月豆油库存数字均上调了６．８万吨，达到９．０７万吨。平均上调幅度接近８．１６万吨，与普查局在上次压榨报告中对３月份豆油库存的调整幅度基本相同。月度动植物油报告（也在上周公布）沿用了上次压榨报告对３月份库存的调整。普查局在２００７年动植物油年度总结报告公布之前没有调整月度豆油预估库存，但在定于下周公布的年度压榨总结报告中可能会调整。

普查局２００７年度总结中有关生物柴油的主要调整在于，８月份用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要成份）的豆油数量下调了２．９５万吨，而１月份的使用量又上调了１．０９万吨，两者在部分程度上相互抵消。普查局对其它月份的调整非常小，只是将２００６－２００７年度用于生产甲基酯的豆油数量从１２７万吨下调至１２５万吨。但是，２００６－２００７年度动植物油的总消费量还是略有上升，因为豆油使用量的下降被其它油籽使用量的上升所抵消。

普查局的月度报告表明，４月份用于生产甲基酯的豆油数量为９．９３万吨，略低于３月份中幅下调后的１０．４万吨。尽管豆油使用量有所下降，但由于替代原料的使用量不断上升，用于生产甲基酯的动植物油总量已从３月份的１７万吨上升到４月份的１７．４万吨。去年豆油占美国生物柴油原料的７９％，但今年４月仅占５７％，就今年截止目前的使用总量而言，也仅占６３％。

美国农业部说，２００８－２００９年度食用油价格可能居高不下

美国农业部在一份报告中说，由于发展中国家需求的迅猛增长使全球需求保持旺盛势头，２００８－２００９年度内食用油价格可能会高于目前的历史平均水平。“由于产量下降及政策性出口限制导致供货量受限，过去１８个月来所有植物油的价格均上涨了一至两倍，”报告说。

报告预计，２００８－２００９年度中国的国内食用油消费量将上升到２５３２万吨，高于２００７－２００８年度的２４１６万吨，这意味着中国将不得不进口约１０３９万吨植物油，超过上一年度的９８８万吨。印度的国内食用油消费量预计也将上升至１３０６万吨，高于上一年度的１２５４万吨，进口量预计将从５４６万吨上升至６０６万吨。

美国农业部预计，明年世界植物油产量将上升，从而会抑制价格的上涨，“但可能仍无法使价格回到历史平均水平。”

美国农业部执行新农业法案中的条款

美国农业部６月１２日宣布了实施新农业法案的第一项方案，即营销援助贷款及贷款差价支付条款。美国农业部设定了２００８年度小麦、玉米、谷物、高粱、大麦、燕麦、大豆及其它油籽作物（葵花籽、亚麻籽、无毒菜籽、油菜籽、红花、芥菜籽、海甘蓝及芝麻）的农村贷款利率；２００８年各州水稻分级贷款利率；以及２００８年豆类作物（小鹰嘴豆、干豌豆和小扁豆）地区贷款利率。上述信息可登录美国农业安全管理局网站查看，网址如下：http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=prsu&topic=lor

２００８年小麦、饲料谷物、油籽、水稻和豆类作物的全国平均贷款利率分别为：小麦：每蒲式耳２．７５美元；玉米和高粱：每蒲式耳１．９５美元；大麦：每蒲式耳１．８５美元；燕麦：每蒲式耳１．３３美元；大豆：每蒲式耳５．００美元；其它油籽作物：每英担９．３０美元；长粒水稻：每英担６．５０美元；中粒水稻：每英担６．５０美元。

由于美国中西部多雨且阿根廷出口停滞，大豆类产品期价上升

由于美国中西部地区雨量过多，且阿根廷大豆向出口商和压榨商的运输仍处于停滞状态，大豆类产品在６月１２日收盘时价格上升。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄７．３５为＄５６４．５６，８月份上升＄６．８９为＄５６５．１１，９月份上升＄３．６７为５５９．７８；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄４．０８为＄４４３．３５，８月上升＄３．６４为＄４４２．７９，９月份上升＄３．２０为＄４３７．５０；７月份豆油期货价格上升＄２６．４６为＄１４５９．４５，８月份上升＄２６．４６为＄１４６６．７２，９月份上升＄２６．６８为＄１４７４．６６。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

World Import Demand Continues to Expand, but it’s Entirely China

Preliminary export data from the major exporters indicates that world import demand continued to expand during the March-April-May (MAM) quarter. China, however, accounted for all of the increase versus a year ago, whereas EU import demand was unchanged and demand for the rest of the world was slightly lower for the second consecutive quarter. MAM soybean exports from Brazil were up an impressive 1.7 million tonnes from the previous year with U.S. shipments up roughly 900,000 tonnes and Argentina’s exports up just 100,000 tonnes. MAM soybean meal exports from Brazil were up less than 100,000 tonnes from the previous year with U.S. shipments up nearly 200,000 tonnes, India’s exports up an impressive 600,000 tonnes and Argentina’s exports down nearly 1 million tonnes.

Argentina’s soybean and soybean meal exports were undermined in March because the farmer strike impeded the delivery of new-crop soybeans to export and crushing facilities. Argentina’s soybean exports rebounded in April and March to surpass year-ago levels, but soybean meal exports continue to lag amid periodic resumptions of the farmer strike. Lower Argentine soybean meal exports were nearly offset by larger exports from the United States, Brazil and India to satisfy flat world soybean meal import demand. The growth in China’s soybean import demand mostly was supplied by ample new-crop Brazilian supplies and, to a lesser extent, by rapidly depleting old-crop U.S. soybean supplies. Looking forward to 2008-09, the growth in China’s soybean import demand is expected to slow because of a rebound in its soybean production. World soybean meal import demand is expected to be slightly lower in 2008-09 due to a rebound in EU grain production that will allow EU protein meal consumption to retreat.

Census Revises Soyoil Stocks History; Use In Biodiesel Slips In April

The Census Bureau last week released the 2007 annual summary for its fats and oils report. A
key feature was the upward revision in soybean oil stocks by 68,000 to 90,700 tonnes for each month of the year. The average increase was near 81,600 tonnes, which is in line with the revision in March soybean oil stocks that was made in the last Census crush report. That revision for March stocks was maintained in the monthly fats and oils report that also was released last week. Census did not revise its monthly soybean oil stocks estimates prior to 2007 in the fats and oils annual summary, but might do so in the annual summary for its crush report that is scheduled to be released next week.

The main feature of the Census Bureau’s 2007 annual summary with respect to biodiesel was a 29,500 tonne downward revision in August soybean oil usage for methyl ester (mainly biodiesel) production that was offset partially by an increase of 10,900 tonnes in January usage. Changes for other months were rather small, and the net result of the revisions was a reduction in 2006-07 soybean oil usage for methyl ester production from 1.27 million tonnes to 1.25 million tonnes. However, total use of fats and oils for 2006-07 was slightly increased because the reductions in soybean oil usage were offset by higher estimates for usage of other feedstocks.

The monthly Census report showed a slight decline in soybean oil usage for methyl ester production to 99,300 tonnes in April from the March figure that was lowered modestly to 104,000 tonnes. Despite the decline in soybean oil usage, total use of fats and oils in methyl ester production during April increased to 174,000 tonnes from 170,000 tonnes in March as the use of alternative feedstocks continued to climb. Soybean oil accounted for 79 percent of U.S. biodiesel production last year, but represented only 57 percent of feedstock use in April and just 63 percent of the total so far in 2008.

USDA: Edible Oil Prices Likely To Remain High During 2008-09

Edible oil prices will likely remain above their current historic averages during the 2008-09 season as demand remains strong due to surging growth in the developing world, according to a report from the USDA. “Prices for all vegetable oils have doubled or tripled over the last 18 months as supplies were restricted due to various production shortfalls and policy-imposed export impediments,” the report said.

The report predicts domestic consumption of edible oils in China will rise to 25.32 million tonnes in 2008-09, up from 24.16 million tonnes in 2007-08, meaning China will have to import around 10.39 million tonnes of vegetable oils, up from 9.88 million tonnes. India is also expected to see a leap in its domestic consumption of edible oils to 13.06 million tonnes, up from 12.54 million tonnes, and imports are set to rise to 6.06 million tonnes from 5.46 million tonnes.

The U.S. government agency forecast world vegetable oil production will increase next season which should keep a lid on prices, “but likely will not be enough to push prices down to historic levels.”

USDA Implements Provisions From New Farm Bill

USDA on June 12 announced its first actions implementing the new farm bill – marketing assistance loan and loan deficiency payment (LDP) provisions. USDA set county loan rates for 2008 crop wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, and other oilseeds (sunflower seed, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, safflower, mustard seed, crambe, and sesame seed); state loan rates by class for 2008 crop of rice; and regional loan rates for 2008 pulse crops (small chickpeas, dry peas, and lentils). Those can be found on the FSA website at: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=prsu&topic=lor

National-average loan rates for 2008 crops of wheat, feed grains, oilseeds, rice, and pulses are at the following levels: Wheat: $2.75/bu.; corn and sorghum: $1.95/bu.; barley: $1.85/bu.; oats: $1.33/bu.; soybeans: $5.00/bu.; other oilseeds: $9.30/cwt.; long-grain rice: $6.50/cwt.; medium-grain rice: $6.50/cwt.

Soy Complex Higher On Moisture In The Midwest And Lack Of Exports From Argentina

The soy complex closed up on June 12 reflecting excessive moisture in the Midwest and the continued disruption of the movement of Argentine soybeans to exporters and crushers. July bean futures closed up $7.35, finishing at $564.56; August gained $6.89, closing at $565.11; and September was up $3.67, ending at $559.78. July meal increased $4.08 closing at $443.35; August was $3.64 higher, finishing at $442.79; and September meal closed up $3.20, ending at $437.50. July soyoil increased $26.46 to finish at $1459.45; August was up $26.46, closing at $1466.72; and September was $26.68 higher, closing at $1474.66.