美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年6月9日）

普查局调整４月份库存数字

６月５日普查局将４月份的豆油库存数字从１３７万吨下调至１３３万吨，３月份的库存数字本月初已上调至１３９万吨，此次未做进一步调整。这两个月的库存数字高得令人怀疑，因为这意味着，即使考虑到生物柴油中豆油的预估使用量低于预计（３月份为１０．５万吨，４月份降至９．９３万吨），国内消费量也低得不同寻常。不过，由于豆油在生物柴油原料中所占市场份额已从２００７年初的９０％降至今年４月的５７％，因此目前生物柴油生产中动植物油的总使用量依然在上升。普查局还公布了对２００７年相关数字的调整，其中豆油库存数字从６．９９万吨上调至９．０３万吨。超过１３６万吨的豆油库存可谓十分充裕，但豆油价格下跌的可能性却非常小。

明尼苏达州提高生物柴油指令级别

明尼苏达州州长提姆∙泊兰蒂最近签署了ＳＦ３６８３法案，该法案将从２００９年５月１日起将目前的Ｂ－２指令升级为Ｂ－５。另外，２０１２年５月１日还将推出Ｂ－１０指令，并在２０１５年升级为Ｂ－２０。据明尼苏达州生物柴油委员会透露，该州目前的生物柴油生产能力为６４００万加仑，远远高于该州Ｂ－５指令所要求的４０００万加仑。

根据新指令，４至１０月份期间将要求最低含量在５％以上，而剩余的冬季月份则要求最低含量为５％。另外，指令还规定，７５％的需求应通过国产原料加工的生物柴油来满足，５％的生物柴油可利用回收食用油、动物脂肪、海藻等非油籽原料来加工。

ＣＦＴＣ继续审核交易条例及存在的漏洞

美国商品期货交易委员会（ＣＦＴＣ）６月４日宣布，它正在撤回拟定中的规则修订案，该修订案原本计划加大某些农产品期货合约的投机性头寸限定，并就农产品期货及期权合约制定一套免除头寸限定的风险管理措施。重要的是，ＣＦＴＣ表示要起草一份提案，以要求“期货市场上的指数交易商及置换交易商提供更详尽的信息，并考查能否对此类交易商的分类进行更有利于监管和汇报的改进。”

ＣＦＴＣ说，这样做是为了回应４月２２日圆桌会议上提出的顾虑，会议当时讨论了影响农业期货市场的因素，包括期货价格与现货价格的脱钩、利润要求提高所造成的影响、投机者及商品指数交易者的作用。

另外，ＣＦＴＣ官员在接受华盛顿邮报采访时说，他们准备重新审核授予华尔街公司的豁免权。此类豁免权可追溯到１９９１年，当时衍生产品开始用作期货合约的筹码，但其意义还没有得到充分认识。ＣＦＴＣ官员说，他们还将重新考虑对海外交易的豁免。ＣＦＴＣ委员巴特∙查尔顿承认，ＣＦＴＣ的确应该与时俱进。“ＣＦＴＣ已经意识到，我们所面对的日常兼管环境已发生了巨大变化，我们需要以全新的目光看待问题，”查尔顿说。“我们并没有做我们该做的事。目前的局面我们尚能勉强应对，但我们不应仅满足于此。”

马里兰大学教授迈克尔∙格林伯格（ＣＦＴＣ前任委员）说，有一些漏洞是ＣＦＴＣ不用费太大力气就可以杜绝的。“过去，当看到烟时，ＣＦＴＣ不会考虑查看是否有火，”他说。“现在，他们表示要查看火情，但需要的是数据……而市场却是漆黑一遍。他们甚至不知道谁在从事交易。”

阿根廷农场主罢工近况

上周初阿根廷卡车司机加入了农场主的抗议活动，由此导致阿根廷的食品供应危机进一步升级。面对食品供应危机，许多团体都呼吁政府及农场主采取有利于国家的行动，解决双方就大豆出口税的争议。但是到目前为止，政府仍坚持原有立场，要求农场主在坐下来谈判之前必须先停止罢工。

就目前而言，罢工对阿根廷大豆装船进度的影响还比较小，因为３月份第一次罢工时，大部分大豆正在运往出口地点，而罢工造成的间隔期刚好使得４月份的出口存货得到补充。目前美国的大豆出口进度已达到高峰，但如果阿根廷的罢工不间断地持续下去，那么美国的老茬大豆出口进度还有可能进一步提高。２００７－２００８年度供需报告中的出口量数字很难超过约３１３０万吨的行业总体预计，除非美国农业部在６月１日的库存报告中指出，去年的大豆产量如分析人士预计的那样，被低估了２７２万吨以上。更长远的趋势也许更为重要，因为上调后的浮动出口税率将会阻碍播种面积进一步扩大，并可能导致阿根廷产量下降。

受中西部多雨天气、阿根廷罢工及原油等因素的影响，大豆类产品期价上升

由于美国中西部地区出现多雨天气、阿根廷农场主正在罢工、原油价格出现反弹、美元汇率有所下挫，大豆类产品在６月５日收盘时价格上升。豆油期价因原油价格上升５美元以上而在６月５日变得更加坚挺，但豆油产品所占市场份额却仍然非常低，因为大豆市场比石油市场更加坚持，而且豆油市场也缺乏促使豆油价格与能源价格脱钩并推动生物柴油利润大幅上涨的投机性购买。这使得豆粕期价大幅上升，因为在豆油市场无法吸收大豆产品价格上涨的情况下，豆粕成了主要受益者。美国中西部持续的多雨天气有可能使大豆播种错过可享受保险的最后播种期限（玉米地带北部为６月１０日，玉米地带其它地区为６月１５－２０日）。２００８－２００８年度的供需数字看来会非常紧张，除非美国农业部在下一次库存报告中指出，去年大豆产量的低估程度进一步加大。如果２００８年度的大豆播种和生长状况没有改善，那么２００８－２００９年度的供需状况也会非常紧张。由于２００９－２０１０年度玉米和大豆供货量可能不大，且南美供货可能出现问题，因此２００９年美国播种面积面临的竞争可能比过去两年更激烈。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄３８．０３为＄５３３．５１，８月份上升＄２１．９５为＄５３４．３４，９月份上升＄２０．１２为５２８．５５；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１４．８８为＄４１１．７１，８月上升＄１２．９０为＄４１１．９３，９月份上升＄１１．４６为＄４０６．０９；７月份豆油期货价格上升＄４８．０６为＄１３８１．１８，８月份上升＄４８．２８为＄１３８９．１２，９月份上升＄４８．０６为＄１３９６．６１。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Census Revises April Stocks Report

The Census Bureau on June 5 revised lower April soyoil stocks from 1.37 million tonnes to 1.33 million tonnes and retained the crush report’s upward revision in March stocks to 1.39 million tonnes made earlier this month. The stocks figures look suspiciously high as they imply unusually low domestic disappearance, even after taking into account smaller-than expected biodiesel usage of soyoil, which dropped to 99,300 tonnes in April from 105,000 tonnes in March. Overall usage of vegetable oils and fats in biodiesel production, however, continued to expand as soyoil’s share has declined from a high of 90 percent in early 2007 to 57 percent in April. The Census Bureau also has released revisions for 2007 that boosted soybean oil stocks by 69,900 tonnes to 90,300 tonnes. Soyoil stocks in excess of 1.36 million tonnes are more than adequate, but soyoil prices nevertheless have fairly limited downside risk.

Minnesota Increases Biodiesel Mandate

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty recently signed bill SF 3683 which will raise the current B-2 mandate to B-5 from May 1, 2009. Moreover, a B-10 mandate is to be introduced on May 1, 2012, rising to B-20 on May 1, 2015. According to the Minnesota Biodiesel Council, the state’s current biodiesel production capacity is 64 million gallons, sharply above the 40 million required for a statewide B-5 mandate.

The minimum content above 5 percent would be effective during April/October. The minimum content for the remaining winter months would be 5 percent. Additionally, 75 percent of the demand from the mandates is to be met with biodiesel made from domestically-grown feedstock and 5 percent is to be sourced from non-oilseed such as used cooking oil, animal fat and algae.

CFTC Continues To Review Trading Regulations And Loopholes

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 4 announced that it is withdrawing proposed rule changes that would have increased the federal speculative position limits on certain agricultural futures contracts and created a risk management hedge exemption from those position limits for agricultural futures and option contracts. Importantly, CFTC said that it will develop a proposal to require “more detailed information from index traders and swaps dealers in the futures markets, and review whether classification of these types of traders can be improved for regulatory and reporting purposes.”

The commission said it was acting in response to concerns raised at an April 22 roundtable convened to discuss events affecting the agricultural futures markets, including the lack of convergence between futures and cash prices, the impact of higher margin requirements, and the role of speculators and commodity index traders.

Meanwhile, CFTC officials said in interviews with the Washington Post that they planned to re-examine the exemptions granted by agency staff to Wall Street firms. These date to 1991, when complex derivatives used to bet on futures contracts emerged and their significance was little understood. These officials said they also would reconsider the waivers given to overseas trades. CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton acknowledged that the agency should have been quicker to adapt. “The commission has realized that the ordinary regulatory environment that we’ve been operating in has transformed dramatically and we need to look at things in an entirely new way,” Chilton said. “We haven’t been doing all that we needed to do. We’ve been getting by, and I think it requires more than just getting by.”

Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland and former CFTC commissioner, said there were loopholes the agency could close without much effort. “There’s smoke here, and the CFTC hasn’t wanted to look if there’s a fire,” he said. “Now they say they want to look, but they need the data…But these are dark markets. They don’t even know who’s doing the trading.”

Argentine Farmer Strike Update

With Argentine truckers joining farmers in protests earlier last week, concerns over food supplies in the country are on the rise. The food supply concerns have caused many groups to call on the government and farmers to do what is best for the country and solve their rift over soy export taxes. So far, however, the government continues to stick with the stance that the strike must be halted before they will sit down to discuss the situation.

Thus far, the strike has had only a small impact on Argentina’s soybean shipments as the initial strike in March occurred before the bulk of the soybean crop was moving to export position and the break in the strike allowed the export pipeline to refill during April. The soybean export pace has peaked, but an uninterrupted continuance of the strike threatens to boost U.S. old-crop exports. There is little room in the 2007-08 balance sheet for exports to exceed the general industry forecast of roughly 31.3 million tonnes unless USDA’s June 1 stocks report indicates that last year’s soybean crop was understated by more than the 2.72 million tonnes that analysts generally assume. The longer-term implications probably are more important as the high, sliding-scale export tax will discourage further area expansion and perhaps result in a contraction of Argentine production.

Soy Complex Higher On Wet Weather In Midwest, The Argentine Strike And Crude

The soy complex closed up on June 5 reflecting wet Midwest weather, the ongoing farmer strike in Argentine, a rebound in crude oil and a drop in the U.S. dollar. Soyoil was the stronger product on June 5 thanks to a $5.00+ rally in crude, but the oil product share remains sharply lower as the soybean market has been stronger than the petroleum market and the soyoil market lacks the speculative buying to divorce itself from energy prices and drive biodiesel margins deeply into the red. This has propelled soybean meal futures sharply higher as the bulk of the increase in the value of soybean products goes to soybean meal since the soyoil market cannot absorb it. Persistent wet weather threatens to delay soybean planting beyond crop insurance planting deadlines that range from June 10 in the northern Corn Belt states to June 15 to 20 for the rest of the Corn Belt. The 2007-08 balance sheet looks to be very tight unless USDA’s next stocks report reveals an even larger understatement of last year’s crop. The 2008-09 balance sheet could be tight as well if the 2008 planting and growing season does not improve. Prospects for little corn and soybean supply cushion to be carried into 2009-10 and the South American problems could make the 2009 U.S. acreage competition more intense than the past 2 years. July bean futures closed up $38.03, finishing at $533.51; August gained $21.95, closing at $534.34; and September was up $20.12, ending at $528.55. July meal increased $14.88 closing at $411.71; August was $12.90 higher, finishing at $411.93; and September meal closed up $11.46, ending at $406.09. July soyoil increased $48.06 to finish at $1381.18; August was up $48.28, closing at $1389.12; and September was $48.06 higher, closing at $1396.61.