美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年6月2日）

ＣＦＴＣ将加大对商品指数基金交易的审查力度

美国商品期货交易委员会（ＣＦＴＣ）上周宣布了一项更加严格的指数基金交易审查措施。ＣＦＴＣ代理主席沃特∙卢肯说，随着去年夏季金融市场信贷危机的出现以及风险债券投资的降温，投资者开始大量涌入商品市场。“目前资金的流动主要是出于安全目的，”他说。“我们必须切实查清这些资金来源于何处以及对市场有何影响。”他强调说，ＣＦＴＣ要求机构投资者提供更多信息，这与调查非法交易活动是两回事。“我认为没有人会宣称，指数基金投资者就是市场的主要非法操控者。这与原油调查不是一回事，”他说。ＣＦＴＣ首席经济学家上周向参议院证实，ＣＦＴＣ有关大额交易商的数据表明，商品价格的上涨“与基金交易基本无关。”

另外，由于人们越来越担心投机者对油价上涨可能起到助推作用，ＣＦＴＣ表示将要求能源交易商提供更多信息，以便政府能够更好地评估投机者在市场上可能起到的作用。ＣＦＴＣ说，将要求能源交易商提供有关指数交易的月度报告，“以便于ＣＦＴＣ进一步明确此类交易的数量和影响。”

对ＣＦＴＣ上述表态首先做出反应的是众议院能源及商业委员会主席约翰∙丁吉尔（密歇根州民主党人）。他说，令他感到失望的是，ＣＦＴＣ没有计划弥补有些机构投资者借以规避投机限定的漏洞。“放任投机行为不仅会损害消费者，还会损害航空运输业、货车运输业、汽车制造业等行业，” 丁吉尔说。

为结束阿根廷农场主罢工而进行的谈判宣告破裂

为避免农场主因不满新税制而再次罢工，阿根廷政府与农场主进行了谈判，但上周谈判宣告破裂，无果而终。总统克里斯蒂娜的政府谈判代表与农场主领导们相互指责对方应对谈判破裂负责。

农场主领导卢西诺∙米格恩斯说，农场主们“离开谈判桌时非常失望，”连下一次谈判的时间都没有商定。内阁大臣艾伯特∙费尔而德斯说，农场主们“拒绝”在今后几周“讨论”政府税收问题。

阿根廷政府已经修改了大豆出口税的政策，一是对小规模农场主给予退税，二是在阿根廷港口离岸价高于每吨６００美元时降低９５％的边际税率。但是，这种措施基本没有对农场主起到安抚作用，因为离岸价远远低于每吨６００美元的上限。

阿根廷的罢工可能会进一步促进美国２００７－２００８年度大豆及大豆产品的出口。美国２００７－２００８年度的大豆出口量目前正朝着约３１３０万吨的行业预测迈进，如果阿根廷的罢工持续几周以上，美国的大豆出口量将会更大。美国２００７－２００８年度的期末库存将会极度紧张，并加大７月／１１月的反向价格差距；另一种可能性是，美国农业部在下次库存报告中公布的数字将大得惊人，从而暗示去年的产量被低估了２７２万吨以上。

如果阿根廷政府能够顺利实施上调后的浮动税率，那么阿根廷的大豆产量将很难继续扩大。如果单产保持正常的话，２００８－２００９年度美国及世界其它国家的大豆有望足量供应，但是到了２００９－２０１０年度，如果世界仍指望美国扩大大豆面积，而玉米种植者又无法或不愿妥协，那么大豆供应可能会极度紧张并出现问题。如果今年秋季南美大豆面积的增幅令人失望，那么对于美国２００９年的播种面积而言，今年冬季的竞争将比２００７年和２００８年更激烈。

中国考虑下调豆油进口税

行业分析人士说，中国作为世界最大的食用油进口国，为了在国内需求不断上升、国际价格创新高的情况下保证供货量，正在考虑下调豆油进口税。“我们虽没有得到任何确切消息，但面对供不应求的形势，政府很有可能通过下调进口税来提高植物油进口量，”北京东方农产品贸易咨询公司分析师陈丽娜（音译）对彭博社说。

据推测，为了确保８月份北京奥运会前供货充足，中国将会把植物油进口税下调几个月。目前除固体棕榈油外，几乎所有食用油的进口税均为９％，中国政府已将大豆进口税从以前的３％下调至１％，有效期截止今年９月底。

中国国家粮油信息中心５月２６日在一份报告中说，中国在２００８年前４个月的豆油进口量上升了２８．３％，本年度（截止９月份）的豆油进口总量将上升１６％，达到２８０万吨，高于去年的２４１万吨。

受石油行情下滑及ＣＦＴＣ新举措的影响，大豆类产品期价大幅下跌

由于石油行情大幅下滑，并导致豆油作为生物柴油原料的盈亏平衡价降至每磅约６０美分，大豆类产品在５月２９日收盘时价格下跌。临近月末流出商品市场的投机资金以及有关美国商品期货交易委员会（ＣＦＴＣ）加大能源市场审查力度的消息似乎已成为价格变动的主要动力。有人担心，投机资金从商品市场的撤出意味着市场近期可能会出现熊市。但是，如果大盘走势不发生变化，且没有证据表明供货量正在满足供货，那么商品价格将很快反弹，直至供需平衡。７月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１８．３７为＄４８６．０２，８月份下跌＄１７．４５为＄４８８．０４，９月份下跌＄１４．７９为４８５．７５；７月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１３．１２为＄３６５．７４，８月下跌＄１２．３５为＄３６８．８３，９月份下跌＄９．５９为＄３６７．４０；７月份豆油期货价格下跌＄５１．８１为＄１３２９．３７，８月份下跌＄５１．３７为＄１３３７．０９，９月份下跌＄５１．３７为＄１３４４．３７。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

CFTC To More Closely Scrutinize Commodity Index Fund Trading

The CFTC announced last week a closer scrutiny of index funds trading. CFTC’s acting chairman, Walt Lukken, said investors flooded into commodities after a credit crisis hit financial markets last summer and risky bond investments lost popularity. “There was this enormous flight to safety,” he said. “This is something we have to really drill down on in terms of where the money is coming from, and what its impact is on the markets.” He stressed the CFTC’s move to require more information from institutional investors is separate from any probes into illegal trading activity. “I don’t think anybody is indicating that index-fund investors, as a class, are causing broad illegal manipulation of the markets. It’s a different issue from the crude oil investigation,” he said. The CFTC’s chief economist testified to the Senate last week that CFTC data on large traders shows that price increases in commodities “are largely unrelated to fund trading.”

Meanwhile, in response to growing concerns about the role speculators may be playing in driving up oil prices, the CFTC said it will require energy traders to begin providing more information so the government can better assess what effect they may be having on the markets. The commission said it would require energy traders to provide monthly reports on their index trading “to help the CFTC further identify the amount and impact of this type of trading.”

Reaction to the CFTC announcement initially came via House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.), who said he was disappointed that the agency did not propose closing the loophole that allows some institutional investors to circumvent the speculative limits. “The failure to corral this rampant speculation is not only ravaging consumers, but harming businesses such as airlines, trucking and auto manufacturers,” Dingell said.

Talks To End Argentina’s Farmer Strike Breakdown

Talks between the Argentine Government and farmers aimed at averting another farmers’ strike over stiff new taxes collapsed last week with no resolution in sight. Negotiators representing the Government of President Cristina Kirchner and leaders of farmers blamed each other for the breakdown.

Farmer leader Luciano Miguens said the farmers “left disappointed from the negotiations”, setting no new date to resume talks. Cabinet chief Alberto Fernandez said the producers “refused to discuss” in the coming weeks the government tax.

The Argentine government has modified the soybean export tax by offering a rebate for smaller farmers and lowering the 95 percent marginal tax rate that applies when FOB Argentine ports prices are above $600 per tonne. This did little to placate striking farmers since FOB prices are well below the $600-pertonne threshold.

The strike in Argentina is likely to further boost 2007-08 U.S. exports of soybeans and products. U.S. soybean exports are on track to reach 2007-08 industry forecast of roughly 31.3 million tonnes, which could be exceeded if the strike lasts more than a few weeks. The 2007-08 carryout either will be extremely tight and widen back out the July/November inverse or USDA’s next stocks report will have to come in surprising large, suggesting that last year’s crop was understated by more than 2.72 million tonnes.

If the Argentine government is successful at imposing its high, sliding-scale export tax regime, continued expansion in Argentine soybean production will be in serious jeopardy. U.S. and world soybean supplies look to be adequate for 2008-09 assuming normal trend-type yields, but 2009-10 supplies could be extremely tight and problematic if the world has to look to the United States for increased soybean area and corn is not able or willing to accommodate. If South American soybean area expansion is disappointing this fall, the competition for U.S. acreage in 2009 could be more intense this winter than it was in either 2007 or 2008.

China Considers Reducing Import Tax On Soyoil

China, the world’s biggest buyer of edible oils, is considering reducing the import tax on soyoil in a bid to boost supplies at a time of rising domestic demand and record international prices, according to industry analysts. “We don’t have any confirmation yet, but its likely the government may choose to further boost vegetable oil imports by reducing the import duty as domestic demand seems to outstrip supply,” Chen Lina, an analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant told Bloomberg News.

There has been speculation that China would reduce its import tariff on vegetable oils for a number of months in order to secure supplies ahead of the Beijing Olympics later this year. Currently a levy of 9 percent is imposed on imports of almost all edible oils except palm oil in solid form and the government reduced the soybean import tariff to just 1 percent, from 3 percent previously, until the end of September this year.

China’s National Grain and Oils Information Centre said in a report on May 26 that soyoil imports into the country jumped 28.3 percent in the opening four months of 2008 and total imports for the oil year, ending September, could rise 16 percent to 2.8 million tonnes, up from 2.41 million tonnes last year.

Soy Complex Sharply Lower On Decline In Petroleum Market And CFTC Policy Move

The soy complex closed lower on May 29 reflecting the sharp decline in the petroleum markets that reduced biodiesel breakeven support for soyoil to around 60 cents per pound. Speculative money flowing out of commodities as month’s end approached and news emerged that CFTC has increased its surveillance of the energy markets seemed to be the main driving force behind the price action. Concerns that the exit of speculative money from commodities presents a near-term bearish risk for the market. However, if the nothing has changed in the underlying fundamentals and there is no evidence that supply is catching up with demand, commodity prices will have to quickly rebound to balance supply and demand. July bean futures closed down $18.37, finishing at $486.02; August lost $17.45, closing at $488.04; and September was down $14.79, ending at $485.75. July meal decreased $13.12 closing at $365.74; August was $12.35 lower, finishing at $368.83; and September meal closed down $9.59, ending at $367.40. July soyoil decreased $51.81 to finish at $1329.37; August was down $51.37, closing at $1337.09; and September was $51.37 lower, closing at $1344.37.