美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年5月19日）

美国油籽加工者协会（ＮＯＰＡ）公布４月份最新压榨报告

ＮＯＰＡ上周公布的报告显示，４月份的压榨量比行业预计低大约５．４４至８．１６万吨。另外，ＮＯＰＡ公布的豆油库存高于预计，比上个月低５．４４万吨，不过原先预计的降幅为７．２６万吨左右，行业预测也认为降幅将达７．２６万吨甚至更大。大豆榨油率继续呈季节性上升之势，使２００７年有望成为继２００５年之后大豆含油量第二高的年份。ＮＯＰＡ公布的国内豆油潜在使用量相当小，这表明２００７－２００８年度将有１４７万吨豆油用于生产生物柴油的行业预计可能是一种过高的估计。尽管ＮＯＰＡ公布的压榨量小于预计，但这仍属于正常的季节性下降。

美国商品期货交易委员会可能调查波动的农业市场

美国商品期货交易委员会（ＣＦＴＣ）暗示性地透露，由于近几个月市场波动过大，ＣＦＴＣ可能会介入农业市场。在向众议院农业委员会提供证词时，ＣＦＴＣ首席经济学家杰利夫∙哈里斯和ＣＦＴＣ市场总监约翰∙范顿说，ＣＦＴＣ将“在近期内制定几项行动方案”。他们还表示要设法更有效地监控对冲基金等大额金融参与者。

但同时，他们也强调说，“目前几乎没有经济证据表明市场价格有系统地处于投机者的驱动之下”。相反，目前市场价格的驱动力仍是“强大的总体经济走势和供求规律”。

另外，美国农业社团联合会总裁鲍勃∙斯道曼称，由于期货价格与现货价格缺乏“重叠”，期货市场“处于崩溃边缘”。他建议ＣＦＴＣ规定更多的商品交货点，以避免可能出现的市场操控。斯道曼还呼吁停止使用“交割凭证”，以便让“交易商意识到交割就意味着交付实际货物，如果把已交割的货物再拿出来进行下一次交割，将导致罚款”。斯道曼还说，“基金机构从事的交易活动肯定是导致期价走高的因素之一”。他还说，“通常情况下，这似乎对农业有利。但如果期货市场不与现货市场重叠，那么对于相关商品的生产者及消费者而言，反映现货真实价格的信息就会很少。在有重叠的情况下，即使期货价格在交货当月大幅下降，市场也会传出一些经济信号，生产者可据此做出反应”。

农业法案以足以避开总统否决权的多数票获得参众两院通过

５月１５日参议院以８１票对１５票的压倒性多数将一份预算达２８９０亿美元、为期５年的农业法案提交给布什总统。尽管布什总统曾明确表示要动用否决权，但众议院的投票结果将足以推翻总统否决权。这一法案即将成为法律，但正式立法看来还需要几天时间，因为要等布什总统从中东回来。布什曾表示要否决这一法案，理由有二，一是预算有问题，二是领取农业付款的资格限定过高。目前尚不清楚布什将在何时否决这一法案，布什有１０天的时间可以启动否决权。

新法案应该在５月２０日送达布什总统的办公桌。“我想他会当即否决这一法案，并将其直接打回，”参议员萨克斯拜∙查姆布里斯（佐治亚州共和党人）说。如果发生这一幕，国会将有足够的时间于５月２３日新的延长期到期前推翻总统的否决。但是，目前仍不清楚总统具体将在何时否决法案。　

对于即将到来的否决，参议员诺曼∙科尔曼（明尼苏达州共和党人）说，白宫如果企图获胜，那将是徒劳。“没有必要进行抗争”，他说，这项综合性法案所赢得的压倒性投票远远高于推翻否决权所需的三分之二票数。（众议院通过新法案的投票结果为３１８票对１０６票）。

阿根廷农场主延长罢工期

阿根廷那些反对上调出口税的农场主们于５月１５日（原定的罢工结束日）宣布延长罢工时间，这一举动加剧了总统克里斯蒂娜•费尔南德斯所面临的政治挑战。阿根廷农场主与政府就浮动出口税制问题目前仍处于僵持状态，农场主们称这样的税制对农产品价格有明显的抑制作用。上周农场主们停止了谷物出售，并开始在路边举行抗议，这使得全球市场对供货前景感到担心。不少农场团队一直在呼吁双方举行会谈，但政府目前在出口税问题上仍采取强硬立场。

与此同时，由于罢工的出现，阿根廷一些谷物出口商已开始宣称货物发运遭遇了不可抗力。阿根廷某大型出口公司一位没有透露姓名的主管人员对道琼斯通迅社说，他预计随着谷物库存的下降，未来几周将会接连出现出口合约无法履行的问题。“有传闻说发生了不可抗力事件，一些公司无法遵守自己的出口承诺，”这位主管说。

引发阿根廷农场主罢工的浮动出口税制，从更长远的角度来看，会进一步打消阿根廷农场主扩大大豆播种面积的积极性，同时也会降低他们对大豆的投入。过去５年来阿根廷是世界上大豆面积增幅最大的国家，而巴西的大豆面积又受到财政因素的制约，因此，全球大豆能否长期以目前价格足量供应实在令人质疑。

由于２００８－２００９年度美国库存令人担心，大豆类产品期价下跌

５月１５日收盘时，大豆类产品期价下跌。除非美国农业部在接下来的库存报告中指出，去年的大豆产量被低估了２７２万吨以上（这是分析人士目前认为的低估幅度），否则２００７－２００８年度的大豆结转库存可能会非常紧张。制约２００８－２００９年度美国大豆库存增长潜力的因素在于，阿根廷过高的浮动出口税以及巴西面临的财政困难，这些因素将导致南美大豆播种面积很难扩大。老茬大豆目前是市场暴涨的潜在火药桶，除非美国农业部对２００７年大豆产量的评估存在巨大误差（这种可能性不应轻易排除）。如果市场真的变得更加关注２００８－２００９年度及之后大豆能否足量供应，那么市场上将很难购买到更多大豆，因为阿根廷农场主在边际税率从７２％上升到９５％之后，便与世隔绝。这给市场带来不祥的预感，因为阿根廷过去５年来一直是世界上大豆播种面积增幅最大的国家。７月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１１．７６为＄４９５．１２，８月份下跌＄１０．８４为＄４９４．９３，９月份下跌＄７．７２为４８７．９５；７月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄７．３９为＄３８０．２９，８月下跌＄６．１７为＄３８０．９５，９月份下跌＄４．０８为＄３７４．０１；７月份豆油期货价格下跌＄３２．４１为＄１３２３．４２，８月份下跌＄３２．１９为＄１３３０．７０，９月份下跌＄３２．１９为＄１３３７．７５。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

NOPA April Crush Report Recap

The NOPA crush for April released last week was roughly between 54,400 and 81,600 tonnes below trade expectations. On the other hand, NOPA’s soybean oil stocks were larger than expected, dropping by 54,400 tonnes from the previous month compared with expectations for stocks to drop by about 72,600 tonnes and trade expectations for a drop of that much or greater. The soybean oil yield continued to rise seasonally, solidifying the 2007 soybean crop as having the second highest oil content on record, surpassed only by the 2005 crop. Implied domestic usage of soybean oil was rather anemic, suggesting that the industry’s 1.47 million tonne projection of soybean oil used in biodiesel production during 2007-08 may be too large. Although the NOPA crush was smaller-than-expected, it reflected a normal seasonal downturn in the crush.

CFTC May Investigate Volatile Agriculture Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has given an ominous sign that it may step into the agricultural markets because of perceptions of excess volatility in recent months. Testifying to the House Agriculture committee, Jeffrey Harris, chief economist at the CFTC, and John Fenton, director of market surveillance at the CFTC, said that the group will have “several initiatives in the near future”. They also suggested they would be looking at ways to improve the oversight of large financial participants such as hedge funds.

However, they stressed: “There is little economic evidence to demonstrate that prices are systematically driven by speculators in these markets.” Rather they are being driven by “powerful fundamental economic forces and the laws of supply and demand”.

Meanwhile, Bob Stallman, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, called the futures markets “bent, if not broken,” due to the lack of “convergence” between futures prices and cash market prices. He recommended that the CFTC require additional delivery points for commodities to prevent possible market manipulation. Stallman also called for an end to “certificates of delivery” so that “traders realize delivery means actual physical acceptance of the commodity, or that there will be some monetary penalty for re-tender.” Stallman also said “trading activity by funds is certainly one of the contributing factors generating high futures prices for commodities.” He continued: “Ordinarily, this would appear to be positive for agriculture. But if the futures markets do not converge with cash markets, there is little information on what real price levels should be, either for producers or consumers of the commodity in question. With convergence, even if futures market prices fall precipitously in the delivery month, there are still economic signals being sent to which producers can respond.”

Farm Bill Passes Both House And Senate By Veto-Proof Margin

The Senate overwhelmingly (81-15) voted on May 15, to send a $289 billion, five-year farm bill to President Bush, who has pledged to veto the bill, despite a veto-proof margin as well in the House. The bill will become law, but it appears permanent legislation may be invoked for a few days, awaiting President Bush’s return from the Mideast. Bush has said he will veto the bill, citing budgetary gimmicks and an unacceptably high limitation on eligibility to receive farm payments. The current unknown is when Bush will actually veto the measure – he has 10 days to do so.

The new farm bill should arrive on President Bush’s desk by May 20. “I’m assuming he’ll veto it immediately and send it right back,” said Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.). If that occurs, there would still be enough time for Congress to override the veto before the new extension expires May 23. However, it is still not clear when the president will actually veto the legislation.

Regarding the coming veto, Senator Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), said it would be futile for the White House to try to win. “There’s no need to fight this battle,” he said, given the overwhelming votes in favor of the omnibus measure, well above the two-thirds vote needed to override a veto. (The House cleared the same bill by a 318-106 vote).

Argentine Farmers Extend Strike

Argentine farmers opposed to a hike in export taxes extended their strike on the day it was due to end, May 15, deepening their political challenge to president Cristina Fernandez. Farmers in Argentina continue to be locked in a standoff with the government over a new sliding-scale export tax that farmers say effectively caps prices for their goods. They halted grains sales last week and began staging roadside protests, raising supply fears on global markets. Farm groups are calling for a meeting between the two sides, but the government is standing strong on its export tax policy for now.

Meanwhile, some Argentine grain exporters have begun to declare force majeure on shipments because of the strike. An unnamed executive from a leading Argentine export company told Dow Jones Newswires that he expects a wave of export contract defaults in the coming weeks as grains stocks dwindle. “There is talk of force majeure and some companies haven’t been able to comply with export commitments,” the executive said.

A longer-term effect of Argentina’s sliding-scale export tax that has prompted the farmer strike is that it could discourage further expansion in Argentine soybean area and also result in lower input use. With Argentina accounting for most of the world’s soybean area expansion over the past 5 years and Brazil hamstrung by financing constraints, the soybean complex has reason for to question the sufficiency of global soybean supplies on the long run at current price levels.

Soy Complex Lower, But Concerns Linger Over 2008-09 U.S. Stocks

The soy complex closed lower on May 15. Unless USDA’s subsequent stocks report indicates that USDA understated last year’s soybean crop by more than the 2.72 million tonnes that analysts currently assume, the 2007-08 soybean carryout looks to be extremely tight. Prospects for U.S. soybean stocks to build in 2008-09 are threatened by Argentina’s high, sliding-scale export tax and Brazil’s financing constraints that make it difficult to achieve any area expansion in South America. The old-crop situation is potentially a powder keg ready to explode unless USDA’s 2007 crop estimate was a huge miss, a caveat that should not be casually dismissed. If the market does become more concerned about the sufficiency of soybean supplies for 2008-09 and beyond, it will be hard for the market buy additional production because Argentine farmers are insulated from the rest of the world by a 72 percent marginal tax that escalates to 95 percent. This is quite foreboding to the market given that Argentina has accounted for most of the world’s increase in soybean area over the last 5 years. July bean futures closed down $11.76, finishing at $495.12; August lost $10.84, closing at $494.93; and September was down $7.72, ending at $487.95. July meal decreased $7.39 closing at $380.29; August was $6.17 lower, finishing at $380.95; and September meal closed down $4.08, ending at $374.01. July soyoil decreased $32.41 to finish at $1323.42; August was down $32.19, closing at $1330.70; and September was $32.19 lower, closing at $1337.75.