美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年5月5日）

美国环保局局长说生物柴油补贴不是全球食品短缺的主要原因

美国环保局局长斯蒂芬∙约翰逊说，美国政府认为生物柴油补贴不是造成全球食品短缺的主要原因。随着玉米、大豆及其它作物越来越多地被用于生产生物柴油，欧洲及其它地区的许多评论人士声称，这一倾向既造成欧洲食品价格大幅上涨，又使得发展中国家食品供应短缺，因为农业生产者们开始改种高价格的燃料作物。在经济合作与发展委员会于巴黎召开的为期两天的环境政策会议结束时，美国国家事务出版公司就上述评论人士的观点采访了约翰逊，约翰逊表示不赞同这种观点。

“我认为就目前而言，生物柴油行业正在导致食品短缺的说法有些言过其实，”约翰逊说。评估食品短缺的农业经济学家们正在考查各种因素，“生物柴油在众多［导致食品短缺的］的主要因素中只是极其次要的一项。”
　　　
阿根廷围绕大豆及大豆产品出口税的争议仍未解决

阿根廷农场主承诺的３０天罢工暂停期已经结束，尽管农场主们与政府就牛肉和小麦的出口达成了部分共识，但大豆及大豆产品的出口税问题仍未解决。据通迅社上周报道，农场主们计划从５月３日开始在路边举行抗议，他们将拒绝买卖农产品，但不会像３月份罢工时那样阻断交通。阿根廷大豆及大豆产品出口运输的再次延误将进一步促进美国大豆在本销售年度下半年的出口。　

上周，农场领导们会见了内阁部长艾伯特∙费尔南德兹和农业部部长贾维尔∙德∙乌奇兹。道琼斯通迅社报道说，这次初步会谈过后，阿根廷农业联盟技术顾问乔戈∙索米表示，在小麦和牛肉问题取得进展后，会谈已上升到内阁一级。但是，他也说，谷物出口税问题仍未讨论。

普查局调整３月份的压榨数字

５月２日，普查局将３月底的豆油库存数字调整为１３１万吨，比压榨报告中公布的数字低６３５０吨。普查局还将２月份用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量大幅下调至９．８４万吨，比最初报告的数字低３．３１万吨。据普查局报告，３月份用于生物柴油的豆油数量为１０．６万吨，这一数字远远低于分析人士根据２月份最初数字做出的预测。３月份用于生产生物柴油的动植物油总量从２月份调整后的１５万吨上升到了１７．２万吨。

美国大豆开始播种

据美国农业部报告，截止４月２７日，美国的大豆播种已完成２％，玉米播种仅完成１０％。由于玉米播种进展缓慢，且多雨天气还将继续阻碍玉米地带核心地区的播种，因此，美国农业部３月份公布的高达３０３０万公顷的大豆意向播种面积越来越有可能成为现实了。

但是，今年制约美国大豆播种面积的一个因素可能会是优质豆种的供应。“很难满足（去年）冬季签订的豆种合约的要求，”先锋 Hybrid公司的布伦特∙佛洛伊德说。他说，豆种出芽率通常为９０％或更高，但由于去年夏末及秋季的不利天气影响了豆种皮层，迫使种子公司使用更多大豆来生产优质豆种，因此今年将销售一些出芽率仅为７５％的豆种。

豆种的质量是通过出芽率或百粒种子的存活率来判断的。在大多数年份中，大豆的出芽率都在９０％以上，标准出芽率为８０％。

印度预计会大幅增加食用油进口

印度是仅次于中国的世界第二大食用油进口国。为了缓解国内价格上涨并抑制通货膨胀，印度政府决定取消未加工的食用油的进口税，受这一决定的影响，今年印度的食用油进口量可能会上升１６％。这一预测是Godrej International董事道罗布∙米斯奇在接受彭博新闻社采访时做出的。他还预测，印度在２００８年度（于１０月份结束）的植物油进口量将达到６５０万吨，高于上一年度的５６０万吨。

“廉价的进口食用油进入印度市场后将促进国内消费，由于国内食用油价格过高，人们会更加青睐进口食用油，”米斯奇说。“而且印度市场上的油籽供应也不景气。” Godrej International是Godrej Industries Ltd.(总部位于孟买)的分公司，同时也是印度最大的植物油进口企业之一。

米斯奇说，５月份和６月份印度的食用油（特别是豆油和棕榈油）进口量可能会高达５７万吨，从７月份开始，预计会达到７０万吨。这一数字明显高于３月份４２．１６８６万吨（来自印度炼油者协会的数字）的植物油进口量。印度炼油者协会在其最新的月度报告中说，印度在本年度前５个月中的食用油进口量已达２２６万吨，比去年同期上升了３８％。

“在今后两三周里，你也许会看到棕榈油的份额略有下降，随着高产周期的结束，价格会上升，”米斯奇说。“７月份和８月份是美国大豆的生长期，这一时期的天气状况将成为影响豆油和棕榈油价格的关键因素。”

由于美元走强导致大规模投机性销售，大豆类产品期价下跌

由于美元走强引发了一轮大规模的投机性销售，５月１日收盘时大豆类产品期价下跌。如果美元继续走强，大豆类产品期货将面临投机性销售带来的更多压力，如果美元走强导致能源市场进一步下挫，并使得用于生物柴油的豆油价格低于目前的盈亏平衡点，那么这种压力将更加明显。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１５．８０为＄４６２．５１，７月份下跌＄１５．８０为＄４６７．０１，８月份下跌＄１５．８０为４６２．９７；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１４．５５为＄３５６．４８，７月下跌＄１４．００为＄３６３．２１，８月份下跌＄１３．７８为＄３５９．９０；５月份豆油期货价格下跌＄２０．０６为＄１２５１．３３，７月份下跌＄４３．６５为＄１２４２．２９，８月份下跌＄４２．９９为＄１２４９．５７。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

EPA Administrator Says Biofuel Subsidies Not Chief Cause of Global Food Shortages

The U.S. government does not believe that subsidies for biofuels are responsible for global food shortages, says EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson. As corn, soybean, and other crops are increasingly used to produce biofuels, many commentators in Europe and elsewhere have asserted that this phenomenon contributes both to soaring food prices in Europe and shortages in the developing world, as agricultural producers shift their production to higher-priced fuel crops. Johnson disagreed with this assessment in an interview with the Bureau of National Affairs at the end of a two-day meeting here of the environment policy committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development in Paris.

“I think that at this point it’s an overstatement to say that its biofuel production that’s causing food shortages,” Johnson said. Agricultural economists who have been evaluating the situation look at a variety of factors, “and at this point biofuels is very, very low on that list of major contributors [to food shortages].”

Argentine Soybean And Product Export Tax Dispute Not Resolved

The 30-day suspension of the farmer strike in Argentina has ended and, although farmers and the government have reached partial agreements on beef and wheat exports, the soybean and product export tax situation reportedly has not been resolved. Wire services reported last week that farmers plan to protest on roadsides beginning May 3 and will not buy or sell agricultural goods, but they do not plan to block traffic as they did during their strike in March. Another delay in Argentina’s soybean and product export shipments would further bolster U.S. soybean exports during the second half of the marketing year

Last week, farm leaders met with Cabinet chief Alberto Fernandez and Agriculture Secretariat Javier de Urquiza. Dow Jones Newswires reports that after the preliminary meeting, Argentine Agrarian Federation technical advisor Jorge Solmi said that talks had moved up to the Cabinet level after progress was made regarding wheat but that the beef sector. However, he also said the grain export tax had not been discussed.

Census Bureau Revises March Crush Figures

The Census Bureau On May 2 revised its end-of-March soybean oil stocks figure to 1.31 million tonnes, which is down 6,350 tonnes from that reported in the crush report. Census also made a sharp downward revision in its soybean oil usage in methyl ester (mostly biodiesel) production figure for February to 98,400 tonnes, which is 33,100 tonnes less than initially reported. Soybean oil usage in biodiesel during March was reported to be 106,000 tonnes, which is much lower than analysts had anticipated based on the original February figure. Total usage of fats and oils in biodiesel production increased to 172,000 tonnes in March from a revised 150,000 tonnes in February.

U.S. Soybean Planting Begins

USDA reported that 2 percent of the U.S. soybean crop had been planted as of April 27 and that just 10 percent of the corn crop has been planted. The lack of corn planting progress and the wet conditions that will continue to impede planting in the heart of the Corn Belt increases the odds that soybean plantings will be as large as USDA’s March intentions of 30.3 million hectares.

However, one constraint to U.S. soybean planting this year could be the availability of quality seeds. “It’s been really tough to fill invoices for quality soybean seeds placed in the winter,” said Brent Floyd with Pioneer Hybrid. Germination rates on soybean seeds are usually 90 percent or better, but this year there will be seeds sold tagged with 75 percent germination, as adverse weather late last summer and in the fall affected seed coats and forced seed companies to use more soybeans to make quality seeds this year, he added.

The quality of soybean seed is measured by the germination percentage, or the number of seeds per 100 that are viable. Most years, soybeans have germination rates above 90 percent, with 80 percent being the standard.

India Expects Significant Boost In Edible Oil Imports

India, the world’s second biggest importer of edible oils after China, may increase their imports by up to 16 percent this year following the government’s decision to scrap import taxes on crude edible oils in an effort to ease domestic prices and temper inflation. Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, made the claim in an interview with Bloomberg News and predicted India would purchase 6.5 million tonnes of vegetable oils in the year ending October 2008, up from 5.6 million tonnes last year.

“The availability of cheap imported oils in India will boost consumption and people will prefer imported oils to local oils, which are much more expensive,” Mistry said. “The oilseed availability in India is not all that encouraging either.” Godrej International, a unit of Mumbai-based Godrej Industries Ltd., is one of India's biggest buyers of vegetable oils.

India’s imports of edible oils, in particular soyoil and palm oil, in May and June could be as high 570,000 tonnes with 700,000 tonnes a month expected from July onwards, Mistry said. This compares with imports of 421,686 tonnes of vegetable oils in March, according to data from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEAI). Imports of edible oils in the first five months of the oil year have reached 2.26 million tonnes, an increase of 38 percent from the previous year, the SEAI said in its latest monthly report.

“You might see palm oil moving a little sideways in the next couple of weeks and as the high production cycle ends, prices could move up,” Mistry said. “Weather during the growth of soybeans in July and August in the U.S. will be key to prices for both soybean oil and palm oil.”

Soy Complex Lower As Strong Dollar Leads To Heavy Speculative Selling

The soy complex closed lower on May 1 as strength in the U.S. dollar triggered a round of heavy speculative selling. Soybean complex futures could see additional pressure from speculative selling if the dollar continues to strengthen, especially if that leads to a further setback in the energy markets and lowers the breakeven soybean oil price for biodiesel producers. May bean futures closed down $15.80, finishing at $462.51; July lost $15.80, closing at $467.01; and August was down $15.80, ending at $462.97. May meal decreased $14.55 closing at $356.48; July was $14.00 lower, finishing at $363.21; and August meal closed down $13.78, ending at $359.90. May soyoil decreased $20.06 to finish at $1251.33; July was down $43.65, closing at $1242.29; and August was $42.99 lower, closing at $1249.57.