美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年4月14日）

美国农业部最新报告

在上周公布的供需报告中，美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度美国大豆结转库存数字上调５４．４万吨，增至４３５万吨。另外，美国农业部还将２００７－２００８年度的出口预测上调１３６万吨，增至２９３０万吨，将压榨量上调１３．６万吨，将豆种使用量上调１６．３万吨，从而为２００８年度播种面积的扩大提供了依据。但是，上述使用量的增加还不够抵消２００７－２００８年度２１０万吨剩余使用量的下调量和１０．９万吨进口量的上调量。剩余使用量之所以下调是因为３月１日的库存高于预计，从而明显表明，美国农业部低估了２００７年度国内大豆产量，但是美国农业部要等到９月份公布谷物库存报告时才会做出调整。美国农业部公布的２００７－２００８年度大豆结转库存虽然略高于市场预计，但市场观察人士预计，由于美国目前待出口大豆数量达到纪录水平，且巴西和阿根廷的出口因国内连续罢工而受阻，因此在今后几个月中，美国农业部肯定会进一步上调２００７－２００８年度的出口预测。

至于大豆产品，美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度的豆粕出口量上调了１３．６万吨，将豆油出口量上调了１３．６万吨，同时还将用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量上调了６．８万吨，但豆油使用量的上升与传统非生物柴油使用量的下降大体相当，因为２００７－２００８年度的豆油库存仅下降了２．０４万吨，目前是１２７万吨。美国农业部对世界其它国家的大豆预测基本没有改变，比如，对阿根廷和巴西的大豆产量预测仍为４７００万吨和６１００万吨，对中国２００７－２００８年度的大豆进口量预测仍为３４００万吨。　

普查局的报告表明生物柴油产量有望上升

普查局已将２月份的豆油库存数量调整为１４０万吨，比压榨报告中的库存数字低１．１３万吨。普查局曾对１月份用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量作过更大幅度的调整，当时上调了２．９５万吨，达到１２．２万吨。分析人士曾预计，生物柴油中的豆油使用量从１月份起将下降，但事实却相反，２月份的豆油使用量上升到了１３．２万吨，仅次于７、８月份。２月份用于生产生物柴油的动植物油总量上升到１８．５万吨，高于１２月份的１５．３万吨和１月份调整后的１７．６万吨。

由于１月份生物柴油行业对豆油的使用量出生现了大幅上调，且２月份似乎会出现进一步上调，因此一些分析人士将２００７－２００８年度的使用量预测上调了约３４万吨，达到１７７万吨左右。１０－２月份用于生物柴油的豆油数量比上年同期上升了５０％，但豆油库存并没有下降，因为在食品行业减少反式脂肪使用量的同时，生物柴油产量的上升一直在替代食品用部分氢化豆油的消费。

巴西公布最新大豆产量预测

巴西农业部作物供应局及巴西地理统计局各自公布了４月份的最新大豆产量数字。这两个部门的预测均接近６０００万吨，其中作物供应局的预测比地理统计局的预测高４．５万吨。作物供应局对大豆播种面积的预测为２１１６万公顷，比去年高２．３％，比上一次的预测高１４万公顷。

阿根廷农场主会见总统费尔南德斯

阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯４月１１日会见了农场领导，就大豆出口税上调引发的冲突进行了讨论。据道琼斯通迅社报道，Coninagro（参与谈判的四大农场团体之一）领导对记者说，他与阿根廷乡村社团领导、阿根廷农垦联盟领导及阿根廷乡村联合会领导一同会见了费尔南德斯。

上个月农场主举行了为期２１天的罢工，他们封堵各地道路，阻断农产品运输。上周他们宣布罢工暂停３０天，并撤除路障，以备与政府谈判，但截止目前，官方还没有出面谈判。

农场主们表示，如果与政府的谈判破裂，他们将从５月１日起恢复罢工。农场主们抗议的原因在于，政府上个月宣布对谷物及谷物产品的出口税结构进行全面调整。调整后的税率采取浮动式，即出口额越高，税率越高。按目前的价格计算，大豆出口税已上升到大约３９％，高于以前的３５％。

但是，阿根廷经济部长马丁·路斯托（Martin Lousteau）可能并不准备向抗议的农场主让步，尽管大豆出口税上调上个月引发了为期三周的破坏性罢工，但目前路斯托仍无意改变这一措施。路斯托的一位助理（其要求不公开自己的姓名）对《FO Licht世界乙醇和生物燃料报告》说，路斯托“倾向于谈判。”

这位助理说，尽管新的让步可能超出小规模生产者已经拒绝的折扣和其它激励措施，但这位部长“根本不打算”改变新的大豆出口税制。在提到这项将作物出口税率与国际价格相挂钩的新税制时，这位助理说，路斯托“坚信这项措施是正确的。”

另据相关消息，路斯托没有参加总统费尔南德斯与农场主的关键会谈。经济部的一位官员说，路斯托当时在美国与美国财政部长亨利∙保尔森(Henry Paulson)会谈，会谈内容之一则是阿根廷欠巴黎俱乐部债权方的长期债务问题。

强劲的出口使大豆类产品期价上升

４月１０日收盘时大豆类产品期价上升。由于报告表明美国大豆出口量非常大且南美大豆能否及时发运令人担心，老茬大豆和新茬大豆的价差呈现反向扩大趋势，最大幅度的反弹就出现在老茬大豆合约价上。原油价格回升至１１０美元以上，马来西亚棕榈油价格也呈上升之势，这似乎对豆油价格起到了推动作用，使得豆油期价在石油行情涨势一般的情况下呈现大幅上升。由于交易所压榨利润进一步降至正常水平，大豆期价走势强于大豆类产品期价；由于玉米相对于大豆的净收益优势变得过于突出，大豆期价走势强于下滑中的玉米期价。５月份大豆期货价格上升＄１５．８０为＄４９８．２４，７月份上升＄１５．７１为＄５０４．３９，８月份上升＄１４．７０为４９９．７１；５月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２．８７为＄３８８．２３，７月上升＄３．３１为＄３９１．３２，８月份上升＄３．３１为＄３８４．７０；５月份豆油期货价格上升＄４６．３０为＄１３２６．５１，７月份上升＄４６．７４为＄１３４２．６０，８月份上升＄４６．７４为＄１３４９．８８。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Report Recap

In last week’s supply and demand report, USDA increased its 2007-08 US soybean carryout by 544,000 tonnes to 4.35 million tonnes. USDA did increase its 2007-08 export forecast by 1.36 million tonnes to 29.3 million tonnes and also nudged higher the crush by 136,000 tonnes and raised seed use by 163,000 tonnes to account for larger 2008 planted area. However, these usage increases were more than offset by a 7.1 million tonne reduction in 2007-08 residual usage and a 109,000 tonne increase in imports. The residual use reduction was warranted by larger-than-expected March 1 stocks that strongly suggest that USDA understated the 2007 US soybean crop, which USDA will not revise until the September Grain Stocks report. USDA’s 2007-08 soybean carryout is a bit larger than the market was anticipating, but market observers expect that USDA will have to increase its 2007-08 export forecast further in the coming months given record large outstanding export sales and various strikes in Brazil and Argentina that are hampering their exports.

On the product side, USDA boosted 2007-08 soybean meal exports by 136,000 tonnes and hiked 2007-08 soybean oil exports by 136,000 tonnes and also increased soybean oil use in methyl ester (mostly biodiesel) production by 68,000 tonnes, but these soybean oil usage increases were mostly offset by a cut in traditional non-biodiesel uses as 2007-08 soybean oil stocks fell by just 20,400 tonnes to 1.27 million tonnes. USDA made few changes in soybean balance sheets elsewhere in the world as Argentine & Brazil crops were kept at 47 and 61 million tonnes, respectively; 2007-08 China imports were kept at 34 million tonnes.

Census Report Prompts Increase in Biodiesel Production Outlook

The Census Bureau has revised February soybean oil stocks to 1.4 million tonnes, which is down 11,300 tonnes from the crush report’s stocks figure. A larger revision was made in January soybean oil usage in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production that was revised up by 29,500 tonnes to 122,000 tonnes. Contrary to analysts’ expectations for a decline from January, usage of soybean oil in biodiesel production increased further in February to 132,000 tonnes, which only trails last July and August. Total use of fats and oils in biodiesel production rose to 185,000 tonnes in February from 153,000 tonnes in December and a revised 176,000 tonnes in January.

With the biodiesel industry’s usage of soybean oil revised sharply higher for January and shown to have grown further in February, some industry analysts have boosted 2007-08 projections by roughly 340,000 tonnes to about 1.77 million tonnes. October-February soybean oil use in biodiesel is up 50 percent from a year ago, but rather than drawing down soybean oil stocks, the increased biodiesel production has been replacing the consumption of partially hydrogenated soybean oil in food as the industry moves away from trans-fats.

Brazil Updates Soybean Production Forecast

The Ministry of Agriculture’s supply department (CONAB) and Brazil’s Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE) issued their April soybean production updates. The forecasts from both agencies round to 60 million tonnes with CONAB’s estimate being about 45,000 tonnes above the IBGE estimate. CONAB’s soybean area estimate is 21.16 million hectares, 2.3 percent above last year. This estimate is up about 140,000 hectares from its previous estimate.

Argentine Farmers Meet With President Fernandez

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez met April 11 with farm leaders to discuss the conflict over increased soy export taxes. Dow Jones Newswires reports that the head of Coninagro, one of four main farm groups engaged in the negotiations, told reporters that he and the respective leaders of the Argentine Rural Society, the Argentine Agrarian Federation and the Argentine Rural Confederation, would meet Fernandez.

Farmers went on strike for 21 days last month, blocking roads across the country to prevent the transport of agricultural goods. Last week, they called a 30-day truce, lifting roadblocks to facilitate negotiations with the government, but officials have so far failed to start talks.

Farmers have said they will resume striking on May 1 if talks with the government break down. They are protesting the sweeping overhaul of the export tax structure on grains and derivative products announced last month. A sliding scale was implemented with rates increasing as export values rise. At current prices, the export tax on soybeans rose to about 39 percent, compared with the 35 percent levy previously.

However, Argentina’s economy minister, Martin Lousteau, may not be ready to offer concessions to protesting farmers and currently he has no plans to reverse the soy tax increase that prompted a destructive three-week strike last month. Lousteau is “disposed to negotiate,” an associate of the minister, who asked not to be named, told FO Licht’s Ethanol and Biofuels Report.

Although new concessions under consideration may go beyond rebates and other incentives already rejected by small-scale producers, the Minister has “no plans at all” to change the new soy export tax regime, the associate said. Lousteau is “convinced that the measure is the correct one,” he added, in reference to the new system that pegs the export tax rate to world prices for the crop.

In related news, Lousteau did not join President Fernandez in the critical meeting with farm leaders. Instead, an official at the Economy Ministry told Dow Jones Newswires that Lousteau was in the United States, where he met with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to discuss, among other matters, Argentina’s long-defaulted debt to Paris Club official creditors.

Soy Complex Up On Strong Exports

The soy complex closed up on April 10 with the biggest rally occurring in the old-crop months as the old-crop-new-crop inverse widens back out amid a strong export sales report and concerns about timely execution of South American shipments. Soyoil futures also posted strong gains despite modest gains in the petroleum markets as soybean oil appeared to be catching up with the rally in crude oil above $110 and also seemed to garner support from the rally in Malaysian palm oil. Soybean futures outperformed the products as the board crush dropped toward more normal levels and outperformed a lower corn market as soybeans let the net revenue advantage of corn over soybean become too large. May bean futures closed up $15.80, finishing at $498.24; July gained $15.71, closing at $504.39; and August was up $14.70, ending at $499.71. May meal increased $2.87 closing at $388.23; July was $3.31 higher, finishing at $391.32; and August meal closed up $3.31, ending at $384.70. May soyoil increased $46.30 to finish at $1326.51; July was up $46.74, closing at $1342.60; and August was $46.74 higher, closing at $1349.88.