美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年3月24日）

食品及农业政策研究机构说：今后１０年能源将使农产品价格居高不下

食品及农业政策研究机构上周说，由于原油价格持续保持高位以及《能源独立和安全法案》等新的生物能源法规相继出台，今后１０年农产品的整体价格预计将居高不下。食品及农业政策研究机构说，尽管豆油价格不断上涨，但为了符合《能源法》的规定并满足欧洲的需求，生物柴油产量仍在上升。不过，由于生物柴油预估收益率有限，今后１０年供货量只能达到规定的水平，大量生产力将被闲置。

美国: ２００７－２００８年度至２０１７－２０１８年度期间生物柴油的供应量及使用量 (百万加仑)

美国: ２００７－２００８年度至２０１７－２０１８年度期间生物柴油的供应量及使用量 (百万加仑) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

(头年１０月至次年９月)	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18

	*生物柴油的供应量及使用量*
产量	592	618	809	933	1065	1101	1100	1106	1114	1124	1131
以豆油为原料	499	519	701	817	937	971	971	977	984	994	1000
以其它油脂为原料	93	99	109	117	128	130	129	129	130	130	131
净出口量	188	222	227	188	132	102	100	106	114	124	132
国内使用量	404	396	582	745	933	999	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000

	*燃料价格* (*美元／加仑*)
生物柴油，货架	3.84	3.99	4.22	4.61	4.81	4.92	4.96	5.06	5.50	5.33	5.50

	*成本及收益(美元／加仑*)
生物柴油价格	3.84	3.99	4.22	4.61	4.81	4.92	4.96	5.06	5.20	5.33	5.50
甘油价格	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
来源: 食品及农业政策研究机构

美元贬值帮助国外进口商抵消成本上升

就亚洲进口商而言，美元汇率的下降抵消了海运成本的上升。美元兑日元的汇率不断下降，于去年夏季１美元兑１２４日元的最高点相比，目前已下降了１９％。本周日元汇率收于１比１００．５８，为１２年来最低点。

自年初以来，墨西哥湾至日本的运价以美元／吨计算上升了３％，但以日元／吨计算，却下降了６％。从太平洋西北沿岸至日本的运价以美元计算上升了１３．５％，而以日元计算，只上升了３．７％。两条线路之间的价差更加突显了墨西哥湾航线的优势：以美元计算，运价下降了８％，以日元计算，下降了１６％。汇率的变化减轻了价格上涨给亚洲进口商带来的影响。

美国生物柴油产量中很大一部分被用于出口

在美国，豆油价格已上升到远远超过生物柴油盈亏平衡点的水平，只有一些特定市场有例外情况，在这些特定市场上，生物柴油相对于传统柴油享受着远远高于１美元消费税优惠的溢价。由于价格原因，近几个月来国内生物柴油用量始终未见起色。从１１月份到１月份，美国生物柴油总产量中近一半被用于出口，出口目的地主要集中于欧盟２７国。

欧盟的生物柴油价格明显高于美国，特别是在美元相对于欧元出现极度疲软的情况下。另外，欧盟仅凭本地区的生物柴油产量无法达到自己制定的高用量标准，部分原因在于，过去６个月来植物油价格的大幅上涨使全球生物柴油的利润率明显降低。

印度禁止出口食用油

印度上周制定了一项针对所有食用油的出口禁令，期限为一年。尽管印度对外贸易总署没有给出实施禁令的原因，但人们认为禁令是为了改善国内供货情况并抑制价格上涨（价格上涨已使印度面临通胀压力）。

印度炼油者协会执行董事梅塔（Mehta）说：“这一举措主要是为了增加市场的国内供应量，抑制价格不断攀升，不过印度的出口量非常小，因此该禁令不会给国内价格带来任何影响。”

韩国取消７０种产品的进口税

数据表明，韩国消费品价格在１月份和２月份分别比去年同期上涨了３．９％和３．６％，鉴于此，韩国政府上周宣布从４月１日起取消约７０种产品的进口税，以控制国内物价通胀。

韩国货币上周初跌至２６个月来的最低点。取消进口税的产品包括豆粕、小麦、玉米、糖浆及咖啡酪。另外，韩国也在考虑降低其它一些产品的进口税。

据韩国联合通讯社报道，总统发言人Lee Dong-Kwan表示，“作为抑制通货膨胀的措施之一，政府将降低或取消谷物、原材料、农产品、石化产品等类别中８２种具体产品的进口配额关税。政府将从４月１日起取消９０％或７０％相关产品的进口税。”他说，政府将对４０％最低收入者经常购买的约５０种日用必需品进行价格监控。

由于全球基金开始抛售商品，大豆类产品期价下跌

由于全球基金开始抛售商品，大豆类产品在３月２０日收盘时价格下跌。据场内交易商透露，今天早晨一些未经证实的报告说，中国进口商未按约定进口一批大豆，另有一两批豆油也未按约定进口。此外，阿根廷农业部长将今年国内大豆预估产量上调了５０万吨，增至４７００万吨。这一预测与美国农业部目前的预测基本一致。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１８．３７为＄４４３．４９，７月份下跌＄１８．３７，为＄４４９．００，８月份下跌＄１８．３７为４４６．８０；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄０．４４为＄３４２．０４，７月下跌＄１．３２为＄３４６．６７，８月份下跌＄４．０８为＄３４３．３７；５月份豆油期货价格下跌＄４４．０９为＄１１９９．３０，７月份下跌＄４４．０９为＄１２１５．６２，８月份下跌＄４４．０９为＄１２２０．９１。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

FAPRI: Energy To Sustain High Commodity Prices Over Next Decade

The Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) said last week that continuing high crude-oil prices and new bioenergy mandates, such as the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, are expected to sustain prices at historic highs across all agricultural commodities over the next decade. FAPRI said despite rising soyoil prices, biodiesel production increases to meet the mandate from the Energy Act and to satisfy demand from Europe. However, over the ten years projected returns were just enough to regenerate the required levels of supply, but left much capacity underutilized.

United States: Biodiesel Supply and Utilization 2007/08-2017/19 (million gallons)

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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /> United States: Biodiesel Supply and Utilization 2007/08-2017/19 (million gallons)

(October/September)	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18

	*Biodiesel supply and use*
Production	592	618	809	933	1065	1101	1100	1106	1114	1124	1131
from soyoil	499	519	701	817	937	971	971	977	984	994	1000
from other fats and oils	93	99	109	117	128	130	129	129	130	130	131
Net exports	188	222	227	188	132	102	100	106	114	124	132
Domestic disappearance	404	396	582	745	933	999	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000

	*Fuel prices ($ per gallon)*
Biodiesel, rack	3.84	3.99	4.22	4.61	4.81	4.92	4.96	5.06	5.50	5.33	5.50

	*Costs and returns ($per gallon)*
Biodiesel value	3.84	3.99	4.22	4.61	4.81	4.92	4.96	5.06	5.20	5.33	5.50
Glycerin value	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
Source: FAPRI

Falling Dollar Helps Offset Rising Costs To Foreign Buyers

For the Asian importer the high cost in ocean freight is offset with the lower exchange rate. The U.S. dollar has weakened against the Japanese Yen, down 19 percent since last summer’s peak of 124 Yen to the U.S. dollar. The Yen closed the week to a 12 year low to 100.58 Yen.

Since the start of the year the Gulf to Japan rate is up 3 percent in USD per tonne, but down 6 percent in Yen per tonne. From the Pacific Northwest the rate is up 13.5 percent in U.S. dollars per tonne and 3.7 percent for the Yen. The spread between the two routes gives the Gulf an even better advantage with it down 8 percent for the U.S. dollar and 16 percent for the Yen. The change in currency gives the Asian buyer some relief from price inflation.

Large Share Of U.S. Biodiesel Production Being Exported

Soybean oil prices have risen well above their breakeven level for biodiesel production in the U.S. with the exception of some niche markets where biodiesel is priced at a premium to conventional diesel that is well in excess of the $1 excise tax credit. As a result, domestic usage of biodiesel has been rather modest in recent months. Nearly half of all U.S. biodiesel production from November through January was exported, with basically all of the shipments going to the EU-27.

Biodiesel prices in the EU are significantly higher than those in the United States, especially with the U.S. dollar extremely weak relative to the Euro. In addition, Europe is unable to meet its ambitious biofuel usage targets with domestic biodiesel production, partially because of the substantial rise in vegetable oil prices over the past 6 months that has significantly reduced biodiesel profitability around the world.

India Bans Edible Oil Exports

India last week instituted a ban on exports of all edible oils that will run for one year. Although no reasons were provided by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, the ban is seen as a way to improve the domestic supply situation and curb higher prices, which have caused inflationary pressure in the country.

BV Mehta, executive director at Solvent Extractors Association of India, said: “This move is largely to increase the domestic availability in the market and to check spiraling prices but the export quantity is so meager that it will not have any impact on domestic prices.”

South Korea Removes Import Duties On 70 Products

In the wake of data showing that consumer prices in South Korea rose 3.9 percent in January and 3.6 percent in February compared with a year earlier, their government announced last week that it will remove import duties on some 70 products as of Apr. 1 in a bid to quell inflation in the country.

Their currency dropped to a 26-month low early last week. The removal of tariffs will come on products that include soymeal, wheat, corn, syrup, and coffee cream. The country also is mulling a reduction of import duties on other products.

“As part of the anti-inflationary steps, the government will lower or eliminate import quota tariffs for a total of 82 items in the categories of grains, raw materials and agricultural and petrochemical goods. Notably, the government will eliminate import tariffs on 90 percent, or 70, of the concerned products, effective Apr. 1,” presidential spokesperson Lee Dong-kwan said, according to the Yonhap News Agency. He said the government also will monitor prices on some 50 products that are daily necessities that consumers in the bottom 40 percent income bracket will typically purchase.

Soy Complex Lower On Global Liquidation Of Commodities By Funds

The soy complex closed lower on March 20, the result of worldwide liquidation of commodities by funds. There were unconfirmed reports this morning that a Chinese buyer had defaulted on one cargo of soybeans and that there may have also been defaults on 1-2 cargoes of soyoil according to floor traders. Meanwhile, the Argentine agriculture secretary upped the estimate of this year’s soybean crop by 500,000 tonnes to 47 million tonnes. This is in line with the current USDA estimate. May bean futures closed down $18.37, finishing at $443.49; July lost $18.37, closing at $449.00; and August was down $18.37, ending at $446.80. May meal decreased $0.44 closing at $342.04; July was $1.32 lower, finishing at $346.67; and August meal closed down $4.08, ending at $343.37. May oil decreased $44.09 to finish at $1199.30; July was down $44.09, closing at $1215.62; and August was $44.09 lower, closing at $1220.91.

周报图表
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