美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年3月10日）

中国政府将“鼓励”大豆进口

中国的一些政府高级官员目前已开始建议中国进口大豆。中国商务部副部长魏建国说，中国将鼓励豆油进口，以满足国内需求。魏建国在政协会议间隙期间说：“我们将鼓励进口那些需求量很大的农产品，包括豆油。”他还说，中国将在“适当政策”下鼓励这一类进口，但未详细阐述。

另外，为了抑制通货膨胀，中国财政部决定将大豆及大豆产品１％的进口税保持到２００８年９月底。原先执行的税率为３％，２００７年１０月下调至１％。同时，油菜籽和菜籽油的进口税率仍为９％，因此与大豆相比，油菜籽的销售将处于劣势。

中国的需求也在影响美国国内市场。由于有传闻说中国将大量购买大豆和豆油，豆油期价在交易日的晚些时候继续升高。豆油价格已上升到远远高于生物柴油成本／回报平衡点的水平，从而与石油价格走势基本脱钩。近几周中国的豆油和菜籽油现货价格也出现大幅上涨。从价格上涨的节奏来看，２００８年之前中国植物油价格的上涨至少在一定程度上受到了芝加哥期货交易所大豆期价的支配。但是，进入２００８年后，中国的现货价格对大豆期价的推动作用似乎变得更加突出。

市场之所以坚信中国会进口大量植物油，一定程序上是从三方面来推断的：第一，中国２００７年的油菜籽产量远远低于原先预计；第二，１月下旬的雪灾对２００８年度的油菜籽作物造成了严重伤害；第三，奥运会将成为推动食用油需求上升的一个动力源。但是，在本销售年度的前４个月里，中国的大豆、油菜籽、棕榈油进口总量与去年同期相比，并没有明显增幅，１２月和１月反倒低于去年同期的水平。

普查局调整１月份的豆油库存

上周普查局将１月份的豆油库存从１４０．３４万吨下调至１３９．３万吨，同时将１２月份的豆油库存从１３９．５７万吨小幅上调至１３９．６６万吨。１月份用于甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量为９２０７９吨，１２月份的用量从９７５２２吨下调至９１６２６吨。迹象表明，１月份用于生物柴油以外的豆油数量相当大，这可能是因为２月份的豆油出口项目已开始大量耗用库存。

欧洲越来越重视非转基因大豆

法国布列塔尼地区委员会国际网络经理莱诺德∙雷亚迪（Renaud Layadi）上周在一次发言中强调了非转基因大豆对非转基因地区欧洲网络成员的重要性。他对网络成员代表们说，继续生产非转基因饲料和食品对食品生产商至关重要，而起主导作用的就是大豆产品。

雷亚迪说，大豆是欧盟最重要的进口农产品，每年进入欧盟的大豆数量占全球大豆交易总量的３０％，相当于１亿吨，其中大部分（８５％）来自美国、巴西和阿根廷。在这１亿吨中，只有４００万吨用于食品，其余均以不同方式用于饲料。他说，各个农业领域都需要大豆及大豆产品，今后非转基因大豆的选择及供应将成为严峻挑战。

彼特森说农业法案修订细节正在成形

众议院农业委员会主席柯林∙彼特森（明尼苏达州民主党人）说，立法委员们正在就新法案中的政策调整和拨款数额确定具体细节。彼特森对新法案包能含以下内容报以乐观：１）肉类及肉类产品必须附有原产国标识；２）经过州级检测的货物可以在不同州之间运输；３）制定一项长期的农业灾害援助计划；４）调整补贴基数限制，根据经济情况调查结果，对于那些调整后三年平均收入总额超过５０万美元的个人，取消其接受补贴的资格。

但是，尽管最近已取得了一些进展，彼特森仍认为国会将再次延长２００２年农业法案的期限，从目前制定的３月１５日延长至４月１５日。

上周，政府发布了一份报告，简要叙述了政府表示要坚持的农业项目改革方案。彼特森说，国会不会同意白宫提出的所有改革建议。但是，彼特森还说，尽管政府的多项农业改革建议缺乏国会的支持，但“他们毕竟是政府，我们希望共和党在我们需要推翻政府的否决时能够支持农业法案。”

“我们需要配合白宫，我们需要向共和党表明，我们正在努力配合政府，”彼特森说，但同时他又尖锐地指出，“政府不会采纳我们在农业法案中的全部提议。”

由于马来西亚棕榈油及中国豆油期货市场崩盘，大豆类产品期价下跌

由于马来西亚棕榈油及中国豆油期货市场崩盘，大豆类产品在３月６日收盘时价格下跌。崩盘发生之前有传闻说，中国将向国内市场出售大量储备豆油，还有传闻说，以前购买的南美豆油目前正在返销海外市场。豆油期价的暴跌与石油期价的上涨形成相反走势，但豆油期价已经远离了受能源市场支配的价位。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１７．４５为＄５３０．２１，５月份下跌＄１８．２８，为＄５３５．９９，７月份下跌＄１７．８２为５４０．４９；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄９．７０为＄４０４．５４，５月下跌＄１２．９０为＄４０８．１８，７月份下跌＄１１．１３为＄４１２．０４；３月份豆油期货价格下跌＄６２．８３为＄１４０４．３３，５月份下跌＄４４．０９为＄１４４０．２７，７月份下跌＄４４．０９为＄１４５６．１４。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Chinese Government Will “Encourage” Import Of Soy

Senior government officials in China are becoming vocal about the country’s need for soybeans. Wei Jianguo, China’s vice commerce minister, said the government will encourage the import of soyoil in a bid to meet domestic demand. Jianguo told the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference meeting: “We will encourage the import of agricultural products that are in great need, including soyoil.” He added that China will import goods with “proper policies”, without elaborating further.

Meanwhile, in an effort to curb rising inflation China’s Ministry of Finance has decided to keep the import tax on soybeans and soybean products entering the country at 1% until the end of September, 2008. The tax was originally reduced from the usual 3% in October, 2007. Meanwhile, the import tax on rapeseed and rapeseed oil into China remains at 9%, putting rapeseed sales at a disadvantage to soybeans.

China’s demand is also influencing the domestic market. Soybean oil futures have continued to charge higher lately amid talk of large ongoing Chinese soybean and soybean oil purchases. Having risen well above their breakeven level for biodiesel production, soybean oil prices largely have separated themselves from the petroleum markets. China’s soybean oil and rapeseed oil cash prices also have risen sharply in recent weeks. Based on the timing of price increases, China’s vegetable oil prices appear to have been led higher by CBOT soybean futures prior to 2008, at least to some degree. However, it looks like China’s cash prices have been more of a leader for the escalation in soybean futures since the beginning of this year.

The market’s excitement about large Chinese vegetable oil imports is due in part to thoughts that China’s 2007 rapeseed crop was much smaller than reported, worries that a late-January winter storm severely damaged the 2008 rapeseed crop, and ideas that the Olympics will be a source of additional edible oil demand. However, China’s combined imports of soybean, rapeseed and palm oil through the first 4 months of the marketing year have not exceeded last year’s level by a substantial amount and actually were below year-ago levels in December and January

Census Bureau Revises January Soyoil Stocks

The Census Bureau last week revised lower January soyoil stocks from 1.4034 million tonnes to 1.393 million tonnes and slightly increased December soyoil stocks from 1.3957 million tonnes to 1.3966 million tonnes. Soyoil used in methyl esters (dominantly biodiesel) production was 92,079 tonnes during January and December usage was increased from 97,522 tonnes to 91,626 tonnes. Implied soyoil non-biodiesel domestic disappearance was quite large during January, likely reflecting the pipelining of supplies for February’s large soyoil export program.

GM-Free Soybeans Increasingly Important To Europe

The importance of GM-free soybeans to members of the GMFree Regions European Network was highlighted by Renaud Layadi, international network manager at the Brittany Regional Council in France in a speech last week. He told delegates of the network that the continuation of GM-free feed and food products was vital to food producers, and that a major role was played by soy products.

Layadi said that soybeans are the most important import in the EU, with 30% of the globally traded soybeans, equivalent to 100 million tonnes, coming into the EU each year. Most of that (85%) is from the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Of that 100 million tonnes only 4 million tonnes is for food use - the rest goes to feed use in one form or another. Soybeans and soy products are needed by all farming systems and choice and availability of non-GM soybeans will be major challenges for the future, he said.

Peterson Says Revised Farm Bill Details Taking Shape

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) says legislators are making progress on nailing down details on both the changes in policy and the spending levels that will be included in the next farm bill. Peterson is optimistic that the final bill will include: 1) implementation of mandatory country-of-origin labeling for meat and meat product; 2) a provision allowing for the interstate shipment of state-inspected meat; 3) a permanent agricultural disaster program; and 4) payment limit reforms that would include a means test that would eliminate eligibility for individuals whose three-year average adjusted gross income is greater than $500,000.

However, and in spite of the progress that has been made in recent days, Peterson still predicts that it will be necessary for Congress to extend the 2002 farm bill once again, to April 15 from its currently scheduled March 15 expiration.

Last week, the administration issued a statement outlining the farm program reforms that it said it would insist upon. Peterson said that Congress will not agree with all of the proposals put forward by the White House. However, Peterson added that despite a lack of support in Congress for a number of the administration’s farm reform ideas, “they are still the administration and we want GOP support for the farm bill if we need a veto override.”

“We need to work with the White House and we need to show the Republicans in Congress that we are trying to work with the administration,” said Peterson, noting pointedly that “the administration will not dictate what we have in the farm bill.”

Soy Complex Lower As Malaysian Palm Oil And Chinese Soyoil Markets Collapse

The soy complex closed lower on March 6 reflecting a collapse in the Malaysian palm oil and Chinese soybean oil futures markets. The collapse occurred amid talk that China was selling large quantities of soybean oil from its reserves into its domestic market and amid rumors that previous purchases of South American soybean oil are being sold back into the overseas market. Collapsing soybean oil futures are moving contrary to surging petroleum futures, but soybean oil futures had far outrun levels that could be justified by the energy markets. March bean futures closed down $17.45, finishing at $530.21; May lost $18.28, closing at $535.99; and July was down $17.82, ending at $540.49. March meal decreased $9.70 closing at $404.54; May was $12.90 lower, finishing at $408.18; and July meal closed down $11.13 ending at $412.04. March oil decreased $62.83 to finish at $1404.33; May was down $44.09, closing at $1440.27; and July was $44.09 higher, closing at $1456.14.