美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年3月3日）

普查局公布１月份压榨数字

据普查局公布，１月份大豆压榨量为４３６万吨。尽管这一数字略低于４３８万吨的行业预计，但１２月份的压榨数字却上调了４．０８万吨至４４６万吨。１月底的豆粕库存降至２６．８万吨，说明１２月和１月国内豆粕消费大于预计。１月底的豆油库存为１４０万吨，也低于预计，但１２月份的库存却上调了８６２０吨至１４４万吨。迹象表明，１月份国内豆油消费似乎创下了同期最高纪录，但与之不相称的是，同期生物柴油利润却遭受重创，这种不相称可能是因为纳入２月份豆油出口计划的豆油占了１月份消费数字的很大比例。大豆榨油率季节性地上升至每吨１９２公斤，创历年同期第二高纪录，最高纪录为２００６年创下的每吨１９３．２５７公斤。

美国运输现状

就美国对亚洲的出口而言，墨西哥湾沿岸港口相对与太平洋西北沿岸港口并没有失去太多市场份额。太平洋西北沿岸港口一直在忙于向中国发运大豆，而墨西哥湾也在不停地向亚洲其它国家和地区发运玉米。谷物和大豆的一周出口检测量在本销售年度的大部分时间里均超过２７２万吨。太平洋西北沿岸因火车到港运量不均而使得出口量波动相对较大。太平洋西北沿岸冬季的天气使人们担心卡斯克德山脉会发生雪崩，但目前铁路状况依然正常，火车仍在向港口货仓运送货物。

除了有公休假日的那几周外，各周的谷物装车数均在２５０００车皮以上。以前曾有大量货物运往得克萨斯海湾和太平洋西北沿岸出口海港，但后来由于小麦出口量下降，发往得克萨斯海湾的车皮数量开始减少。迹象表明，内销商品装车数（即总装车数减去出口商品装车数）一直稳定在较高的５年平均水平。

墨西哥湾的谷物和大豆出口量预计将达到几年来的最高水平，因此谷物的驳船运输将从中受益。但是，目前货物还没有进入船闸和大坝上游的航运系统。而在圣路易斯附近Chain of Rocks船闸以及俄亥俄河５２号船闸下游一带，谷物已开始进入水运系统。

伊利诺斯河正在发洪水，货物尚未进入航运系统。密西西比河Keokuk以上的河段还有３个星期的封航期，之后才能通航。

通过重点船闸下游航运系统运往墨西哥湾的谷物数量可以通过墨西哥湾累计出口量与重点船闸货物累计通过量（见下一页的曲线图）之间的差额推算出来。这一差额体现的是在河流开阔地带进入航运系统的货物数量。２００７－２００８销售年度在开阔水域装上驳船的货物数量比５年来的平均水平多１．８４亿蒲式耳。密西西比河上洲河段一旦通航，通过船闸的货物数量将会大幅上升。

中国急需大豆

据交易商本周透露，由于豆粕需求疲软，中国压榨企业的开工率很低，从而导致本周豆油价格达到纪录最高点。黑龙江豆农目前已不再出售２００７年的大豆。“我们收购不到大豆，” 黑龙江九三油脂有限责任公司（一家国有大型压榨企业）的一位负责人说。“农民们不卖大豆。”

另外，中国当地分析人士表示，本月中国的油籽进口也下降至２００万吨左右，而正常的消费量为２５０－３００万吨。据中国国家粮油信息中心的一份报告，本月中国的大豆进口量可能会比去年同期翻一番，达到２５０万吨左右。

中国的总体经济形势也在成为一个因素。上个月在经历了几十年来最严重雪灾造成的食品供应中断之后，国内通货膨胀速度达到了１１年多来的最高点。中国国家统计局表示，消费价格在１２月份上升了６．５％之后，目前已比去年高出７．１％。

另外，中国油籽产量不佳，也使得油籽供应市场更加紧张。中国国家粮油信息中心２月１５日表示，近一半的秋／冬油籽作物因雨雪天气而受损。

高昂的大豆价格继续抑制美国生物柴油产量

美国生物柴油委员会顾问艾伦∙韦伯上周说，由于大豆类产品价格达到了纪录最高水平，豆油基生物柴油占美国生物柴油总产量的比例开始下降。“豆油基生物柴油占生物柴油总产量的比例在２００６年为９０％，２００７年平均为８０％，２００７年１２月份为６４．５％，” 韦伯说。

道琼斯通迅社说，尽管２００７年美国生物柴油总产量预计比前一年翻了一番，达到５亿加仑，但自２００７年１０月以来，创纪录的豆油价格就一直影响着生物柴油产量。

由于美元下跌且石油及贵重金属价格上升，大豆类产品期价上升

由于美元比价跌至新低且原油和贵重金属价格创下新高，大豆类产品在２月２８日收盘时价格上升。大豆和豆油市场可能出现的供货紧张非常有望使价格上涨至空前高位，在这种情况下，伴随着通胀忧虑的投机动力可能已开始推动价格的上涨。随着豆油价格的上涨，相对于普通柴油价格而言，豆油已很不适合用来生产生物柴油了，但是，生物柴油在美国和欧洲仍有一些特定需求，因此部分生物柴油还需继续生产。３月份大豆期货价格上升＄１４．５１为＄５５０．６０，５月份上升＄１３．６９，为＄５５５．７４，７月份上升＄１２．８６为５５９．８８；３月份豆粕期货价格上升＄８．３８为＄４１１．７１，５月上升＄７．６１为＄４１９．６５，７月份上升＄６．９４为＄４２２．４０；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄４３．６５为＄１４６４．９６，５月份上升＄４０．３４为＄１４８３．７０，７月份上升＄４０．７９为＄１４９８．４７。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

January Census Crush Recap

The Census Bureau pegged the January soybean crush at 4.36 million tonnes. While this was slightly below trade expectations of around 4.38 million tonnes, the December crush was revised by 40,800 tonnes to 4.46 million tonnes. With soybean meal stocks at the end of January dropping to 268,000 tonnes, domestic soybean meal disappearance was larger than expected to both December and January. Soybean oil stocks also were smaller than expected at 1.4 million tonnes for the end of January, but December stocks were revised up 8,620 tonnes to 1.44 million tonnes. Implied soybean oil domestic disappearance looks to have been an all-time record during January, which is hard to reconcile with the punishment that biodiesel margins have incurred, but may be explained by pipelining of stocks for February’s huge soybean oil export program. The soybean oil yield increased seasonally to 192 kg per tonne, which was the second highest on record for January after 2006’s 193.257 kg per tonne.

U.S. Transportation Update

The U.S. Gulf ports have not lost much market share to the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) for exports to Asia. The PNW has been busy loading soybeans bound for China while the Gulf is also benefiting for strong corn exports to non-Asian destinations. Total weekly grain and soybean export inspections have been running above 2.72 million tonnes for most of the marketing year. Exports through the PNW are choppier reflecting the bunching of trains. Winter weather in the PNW has led to avalanche concerns through the Cascade Mountains but the railroads continue to get cars to the elevators to load ships.

Except for the holiday weeks, grain carloadings have been running above 25,000. Movements to export position were strong to the Texas Gulf and PNW. Carloadings destined for the Texas Gulf have since slowed as wheat exports turn soft. Implied domestic carloadings (total carloadings less export carloadings) have been holding strong in line with the 5-year average.

With the Center Gulf grain and soybean export forecast to be the strongest showing in several years, grain barge movements will benefit. However, the loadings are not showing up off the reaches of the navigation system above the locks and dams. Instead grain volumes are entering the system below the Chain of Rocks Lock near St. Louis and below Lock 52 on the Ohio River.

The Illinois River is flooding and volumes are scarce coming off that system. The Mississippi River above Keokuk is still closed for another three weeks when it is scheduled to reopen to navigation for the season.

The volume of grain entering the system below the key locks and exported through the Center Gulf can be implied by looking at the difference in cumulative export volumes at the Gulf and cumulative volumes through the key locks as shown in the chart on the next page. The difference is implied to be the volume that enters the navigation system in the open river areas. Compared to the five year average, there is 184 million bushels of additional volume entering the river and being loaded into a barge in the open navigation areas during the 2007-08 marketing year. Once the Upper Mississippi River re-opens for the season more volumes will start flowing through the locks.

 
China Desperate For Soybeans

China soyoil prices hit record highs this week as crushers were running at low capacity amid weak soymeal demand, traders said this week. Farmers in Heilongjiang were holding back selling oilseed from the 2007 crop. “We cannot get hold of any soybeans,” said an official at Jiusan Oils and Fats Co Ltd, one of the country’s top state-owned crushers, based in Heilongjiang province. “Farmers are not selling any more.”

In addition, China’s imports of the oilseed were also lower in the month at around 2 million tonnes, which compared with normal consumption at between 2.5 to 3 million tonnes, according to local Chinese analysts. According to a report from the state-owned China National Grain and Oils Information Centre, China’s soybean imports might double this month to around 2.5 million tonnes compared with those of the same period last year.

The general Chinese economy is also playing a factor. Last month saw China’s inflation accelerate to its fastest pace in more than 11 years after the worst snowstorms in decades disrupted food supplies. The country’s statistics bureau said that consumer prices rose 7.1% from a year earlier, after gaining 6.5% in December.

Also, China’s poor rapeseed crop has made the oilseed market that much tighter. China’s National Grains and Oils Information Centre said on February 15 that almost half of the autumn/winter rapeseed crop has been affected by damage caused by rain and snow.

High Soybean Prices Continue To Hold Down U.S. Biodiesel Production

The share of soybean oil-based biodiesel in total U.S. biodiesel output is falling due to the record high prices of the soy complex, Alan Weber, adviser to the National Biodiesel Board, said last week. “The share of soybean oil-based biodiesel in total biodiesel production was 90% in 2006, it averaged 80% in 2007 and was around 64.5% in December 2007,” Weber said.

Dow Jones Newswires notes that U.S. biodiesel production has been affected by record high soybean oil prices since October last year, though the overall production in 2007 is estimated to have doubled on year to 500 million gallons.

Soy Complex Up On Lower Dollar, Rally In Oil And Precious Metal Markets

The soy complex closed higher on February 28 reflecting a drop in the U.S. dollar to new lows and a rally in crude oil and precious metals to new highs While the soybean and soybean oil markets face the threat of tightening supplies that provides a fundamental rationale for the relentless rally to unprecedented price levels, speculative interest in commodities amid inflationary concerns likely is at least contributing to the rally. Soybean oil prices are well above levels than can justified for making biodiesel that is priced comparably to conventional diesel; however, there is some niche premium demand for biodiesel in the U.S. and export demand from Europe that keeps some biodiesel production going. March bean futures closed up $14.51, finishing at $550.60; May gained $13.69, closing at $555.74; and July was up $12.86, ending at $559.88. March meal increased $8.38 closing at $411.71; May was $7.61 higher, finishing at $419.65; and July meal closed up $6.94 ending at $422.40. March oil increased $43.65 to finish at $1464.96; May was up $40.34, closing at $1483.70; and July was $40.79 higher, closing at $1498.47.