美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年1月28日）

普查局公布的１２月份压榨数字低于预计

据普查局报告，１２月份大豆压榨数字为４４２万吨，比预计压榨量低大约５．４４－８．１６万吨，另外普查局还将１１月份的压榨量数字下调了２．７２万吨，降至４２４万吨。普查局１１月份的压榨数字经过下调后已与油籽加工者协会公布的压榨数字更加接近，但普查局１２月份的压榨数字似乎仍远远低于油籽加工者协会的预测。豆油库存也低于预计，比上个月下降５９００吨，降至１３７万吨。相比之下，豆粕库存因有所积累而高于预计，为３６．７万吨。１２月份的豆油产油率从上个月的每蒲式耳１１．５６磅（这一数字从油籽加工者协会对１１月份的预测来看似乎多算了０．１３磅）降至每蒲式耳１１．４５磅。

研究表明大豆蛋白对健康有益

据《肥胖评论》最近发表的一项研究，食品中的大豆蛋白有利于增进骨骼健康、保护心血管系统、降低胆固醇含量、帮助体重下降。另外，还有迹象表明，大豆蛋白可以降低短期内的食欲和热量摄入。该研究结果还证实了有关大豆能降低胆固醇、减少妇女骨损失的报道。

“总体而言，目前的数据表明，大豆食品具有与其它蛋白源同样有效的减肥效果，此外大豆食品还具有其它一些好处，不过这些研究结果需要详加说明，而且在得出有关大豆食品及其减肥效果的最终结论之前尚需更多支持，”亚拉巴马大学（位于伯明翰）首席作家马克∙库伯写道。

大豆蛋白和大豆肽因具有减少脂肪、抑制胆固醇、降低血压、疏通动脉、改善动脉内皮、抗胰岛素、降体重等功能而倍受关注。

库伯与亚拉巴马大学（位于伯明翰）的大卫∙阿里森和依利诺伊大学（位于Champagne-Urbana）的约翰∙艾德曼共同收集了体外研究、动物研究、流行病研究、临床研究等多项研究结果。这篇包含有８项人体研究结论的文章指出，大豆蛋白具有与其它蛋白类似的减肥效果，在有些情况下，当摄入相同热量的大豆蛋白、乳制品替代物、牛肉或猪肉时，其减肥效果完全相同。

印度炼油者协会预计食用油进口量将增加

印度最大的一家贸易团体说，由于国内油籽产量下降，印度为增加供货量，今年可能会多进口５％的大豆。《大众公志》的一篇报道说，印度炼油者协会总裁阿萨克∙赛瑟亚对协会成员说，到２００８年１０月为止，本年度的食用油进口量可能会达到５９０万吨，超过上一年度的５６０万吨。

赛瑟亚说，由于农民减少了芥菜籽播种面积，冬季油籽产量可能会从去年的９５０万吨下降到今年的９００万吨。油籽播种面积也将从去年的８９３万公顷下降到８１０万公顷。他还说，印度今年的油籽产量可能只有２６００万吨，比政府预定的３０００万吨低１３％。

“由于国内产量和期末库存下降，我们可能只有加大（植物油）进口量才能弥补需求和供应之间的缺口，” 赛瑟亚说。“食用油价格的高涨会在一定程度上抑制需求，但食用油的进口总量可能仍会从５６０万吨上升到５８０－５９０万吨。”

印度炼油者协会说，截止１２月底，２００７－２００８年度前两个月的食用油进口已达６２．４１０２万吨，高于去年同期的６１．９６３万吨。

中国国家粮油信息中心说，中国在２００８年可能会进口更多大豆

中国的行业官员上周表示，中国对食用、肉类、生物柴油的需求正在不断上升，在２００７年国内出现收成不佳的状况之后，需求更加明显，为此，作为世界头号大豆进口国的中国可能会在２００８年进口更多大豆。中国国家粮油信息中心预计，中国在本销售年度（于２００７年１０月开始）的大豆进口量可能会达到３３００万吨，比上一年度高出１５％。

据路透社报道，由于货运价格从去年年底的最高点开始狂跌，中国压榨商自１月１８日以来，已从南美预订了１０批大豆，共计５００万吨，定于４月－７月发货。

另据相关消息，中国海关总署的数据显示，中国在２００７年的豆油和菜籽油进口量出现大幅上升。海关总署报告说，中国在去年１－１２月期间进口了２８２．３万吨豆油，比上一年度的１５４万吨高出８２．９％。

菜籽油进口增幅最大，２００７年共进口了３７．４７７６万吨，比２００６年的４．３９９５万吨高出７９４．６％。２００７年的棕榈油进口量稳定在５０９．５万吨，比上一年度略增０．２％。

股票市场的复活推动大豆类产品期价上升

普查局的压榨报告虽有些令人失望，但美国及其它一些国家股票市场的复活却更令人注目，受其影响，大豆类产品在１月２４日收盘时价格上升。投机商借势返回市场成为买主。还有报道说，由于海洋运价及大豆期价下跌，中国已成为大豆的购买大户。大盘走势似乎再次得到证实。２００８－２００９年度玉米、大豆、小麦的结余量似乎都将呈现紧张态势，其中的一种或多种（具体取决于这三种作物在２００８年度的播种面积比例）在２００８－２００９年度甚至会达到难以承受的紧张程度。由于今年农民不愿将玉米改种成大豆，因此大豆可能会成为供应短缺的作物。巴西大豆目前进展良好，但巴西大豆的播种面积是否会扩大还有待观察。３月份大豆期货价格上升＄１５．０６为＄４５２．１３，５月份上升＄１５．４３，为＄４５８．９２，７月份上升＄１５．８０为４６４．３４；３月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２．８７为＄３６６．１８，５月上升＄９．０４为＄３７２．５８，７月份上升＄７．１６为＄３７５．８８；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄４４．０９为＄１１３９．３４，５月份上升＄４３．８７为＄１１５３．８９，７月份上升＄４３．８７为＄１１６７．１２。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

December Census Crush Below Expectations

The Census crush report pegged the December soybean crush about 54,400 to 81,600 tonnes bushels below expectations at 4.42 million tonnes and revised lower the November crush by 27,200 tonnes to 4.24 million tonnes. The November revision puts the Census crush more in line with the NOPA crush, but the December crush looks unusually low compared with NOPA indications. Soybean oil stocks also were lower than expected, dropping 5,900 tonnes from the previous month to 1.37 million tonnes. In contrast, soybean meal stocks were larger than expected at 367,000 tonnes as stocks accumulated. The December soybean oil yield dropped to 11.45 pounds per bushel from the previous month’s 11.56 pounds, which looks too high by 0.13 pounds given NOPA indications for November.

Study Supports Health Benefits Of Soy Proteins

According to a new study published recently in Obesity Reviews, soy proteins in food have the added benefits of boosting bone health and aiding overall cardiovascular health, reduce cholesterol levels, and aid weight loss. Moreover, there was a suggestion that soy protein also may decrease short-term appetite and calorie intake. The study results also supported reports of the cholesterol-lowering benefits of soy, and that soy may reduce bone loss in women.

“Overall, the current data suggest that soyfoods are as good as other protein sources for promoting weight loss and there is a suggestive body of evidence that soyfoods may confer additional benefits, but results must be carefully interpreted and additional evidence is needed before making firm conclusions concerning soyfoods and weight loss,” wrote lead author Mark Cope from the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Soy proteins and soy peptides have received attention for their hypolipidaemic and hypocholesterolaemic properties, as well as their ability to lower blood pressure, improve arterial compliance and endothelial function, insulin resistance and weight loss in obesity.

Cope, in collaboration with David Allison from University of Alabama at Birmingham and John Erdman from the University of Illinois at Champagne-Urbana, collected results from in vitro, animal, epidemiologic, and clinical studies. The review, including results from eight human studies, found that weight loss was equivalent and, in some cases, equal when using soy protein, dairy milk meal replacements, beef or pork at equal calorie levels.

Solvent Extractors Association of India Expect An Increase In Edible Oil Imports

India may import 5% more soybeans this year in order to boost supplies due to a decline in domestic production of oilseeds, according to the country’s leading trade body. According to a report from The Public Ledger, Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEAI), told members of his organization that purchases may total 5.9 million tonnes in the year ending October 2008, up from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous oil year.

Sethia said the winter oilseed could decline to 9 million tonnes this year, from 9.5 million tonnes last year, because farmers have planted less mustard seed crop. The area planted with oilseeds is also down to 8.1 million hectares, compared to 8.93 million hectares last year. He added that India’s oilseed production for the year could be as low as 26 million tonnes which is 13% lower than the government’s target of 30 million tonnes.

“In view of the lesser crop and carry-over stock, we may have to import a higher quantity (of vegetable oils) to bridge the gap between demand and supply,” Sethia told his audience. “The high price of edible oils will squeeze demand to some extent but the overall imports of edible oils are likely to increase from 5.6 million tonnes to 5.8 million to 5.9 million tonnes.”

Edible oil imports in the first two months of the 2007-08 season, to the end of December, were 624,102 tonnes according to the SEAI, up from 619,630 in the same period last season.

CNGOIC: China Likely To Import More Soybeans In 2008

China, the world’s top soybean importer, is likely to import more in 2008 to meet increasing demand for edible oils, meat and biofuels, particularly after a poor domestic harvest in 2007, industry officials said this week. The China National Grains and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) estimated China’s soy imports in the marketing year beginning October 2007 would reach 33 million tonnes, a rise of 15% from the previous year.

Chinese crushers have booked more than 10 cargoes from South America since January 18, totaling 5 million tonnes, for shipment from April to July after freight rates plunged from record highs late last year, reported Reuters.

In related news, China saw massive rises in its imports of soyoil and rapeseed oil in 2007, according to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) data. The GACC report said China imported 2.823 million tonnes of soyoil between January and December last year, a rise of 82.9% from the previous year’s total of 1.54 million tonnes.

Rapeseed oil saw the biggest shift in percentage terms with 374,776 tonnes of the commodity entering the country last year, up an incredible 794.6% from 43,995 tonnes imported in 2006. Palm oil purchases stayed steady at 5.095 million tonnes in 2007, a slight rise of 0.2% from the previous year.

Soy Complex Gets Boost From Resurgent Equity Markets

The soy complex closed higher on January 24 as a somewhat bearish Census crush report took backseat to a resurgence in the equity markets in the United States and elsewhere. This emboldened speculators to return as buyers of commodities. There are also reports that China as been a substantial buyer of soybeans due to the drop in ocean freight and the sell-off in soybean futures. The underlying fundamentals seem to have reasserted themselves. The 2008-09 balance sheets for corn, soybeans and wheat all look to be tight. Depending on how 2008 acreage is allocated among these crops, one or more of these balance sheets could be intolerably tight in 2008-09. Given corn’s reluctance to give acreage back to soybeans this year, it appears as if soybeans will be the crop that is short on supplies. Brazil’s soybean crop is progressing under favorable conditions, but it remains to be seen if Brazil can expand area. March bean futures closed up $15.06, finishing at $452.13; May gained $15.43, closing at $458.92; and July was up $15.80, ending at $464.34. March meal increased $2.87 closing at $366.18; May was $9.04 higher, finishing at $372.58; and July meal closed up $7.16 ending at $375.88. March oil increased $44.09 to finish at $1139.34; May was up $43.87, closing at $1153.89; and July was $43.87 higher, closing at $1167.12.