美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年12月24日）

＊＊＊为迎接新年的到来，《每周快报》在１２月３１日将停发一期，１月７日恢复正常＊＊＊

布什签署能源法案

上周布什总统签署了一项全面的能源法案，使这项国会为之努力了两年之久的法案成为法律。国会中的民主党派很快做出承诺，表示将于２００８年初提出更多能源立法，以解决新法案中没有包含的问题。

新法案规定，２００９年的生物柴油使用量必须达到５亿加仑，２０１２年必须达到１０亿加仑。这一规定意味着２００９年的动植物需求量势必达到３７．５亿磅左右，２０１２年的需求量势必达到７５亿磅。由于生物柴油预估年产量自５月份以来始终保持在５亿加仑或以上的水平，２００９年的最初目标看来要翻一番，但如果国外对生物柴油的规定用量过高，９、１０月份美国生物柴油预估年产量将会下降，且２０１２年的目标也将很难实现。尽管生物柴油用量规定的影响在２００９年前还不能充分体现，但是对乙醇用量要求更高的可再生燃料标淮(RFS)将于２００８年生效，这使得即将完成的新增乙醇产能不得不很快投入运营。这并不一定预示着玉米的需求会高于分析人士目前的预测，但却为玉米潜在需求的上升创造了可能性，同时也使得大豆播种面积的上升更加困难。

新能源法包含以下要点：

 到２０２０年燃料效率必须提高４０％，从目前的每加仑２５英里提高到每加仑３５英里；
 到２０２２年可再生燃料的使用量必须达到３６０亿加仑，其中玉米基乙醇的使用量在２０１５年必须达到１５０亿加仑；
 到２０１２年生物燃料的使用量必须达到１０亿加仑。

另据相关消息，最近刚刚通过的参议院农业法案也包含一些有关可再生能源的重要规定，其中包括：

 生物柴油税费减免：将１．５美元的生物柴油税费减免优惠延期两年（延至２０１０年１２月３１日）。对于年生产能力不超过６０００万加仑的生产商首次生产的１５００万加仑生物柴油，每加仑１０美分的税费减免期延长四年（延至２０１２年１２月３１日）。成本：１０年共计２．６７亿美元。

 可再生柴油激励措施：针对通过热解过程制造的柴油以及单个工厂年生产能力不超过６０００万加仑的生产商，将１美元的税费减免优惠延期两年（延至２０１０年１２月３１日）。成本：１０年共计２．１１亿美元。

美国出口进度加快

本销售年度初期，由于遭遇南美大豆竞争压力，美国大豆出口曾一度滞后。但目前美国的出口进度已开始赶超南美，因为美国有大量待售货物正等待装船。尽管从目前的发货进度还不能断定２００７－２００８年度２７９０万吨的出口预测能够实现，但从预订出口量的总体水平来看，实现预测出口量不成问题。目前看来，南美大豆产量低于预计的可能性更大了。阿根廷正在经历拉尼娜现象造成的典型干燥天气，这种天气已使阿根廷的大豆播种被迫推迟，并对大豆的单位产量构成威胁。在出现拉尼娜现象的年份，阿根廷的大豆单产通常低于趋势产量，而且伴随而来的雨量不足会造成４００万吨的损失。

据公布，到目前为止巴西大豆总体进展顺利，播种工作已基本完成。但是，巴西政府机构预计，大豆播种面积的增幅将不足２％。在播种面积大幅增长的年份，巴西政府的作物研究机构通常会将面积增幅少报３％。去年巴西的大豆产量似乎多报了２－３百万吨，因此就目前的出口和压榨前景来看，今年的预估单产可能不得不有所保留。据公布，去年大豆的状况非常良好，如果下调去年的大豆产量，就会使去年的单位产量低于目前对今年单产的预测。

普查局公布的１１月份压榨量高于预计

据普查局报告，１１月份的压榨量为４２６万吨，比行业预计高出大约４．０８万吨，这意味着普查局和国家油籽加工者协会有关压榨量预测的差距进一步加大。普查局确认，豆油库存仍保持在１３６万多吨，这说明豆油库存量的反季节增幅比国家油籽加工者协会在报告中的预测还要大。１１月份的豆粕总产量和单位产量均大得令人吃惊，１０月份和１１月份的豆粕单产均略高于国家油籽加工者协会的预测。由于压榨量和豆粕单产的上升，１１月份国内豆粕使用量并没像以前预想的那样出现中断，从而使得目前高价格正在抑制豆粕需求上升的迹象越来越不明显。

中国取消粮食出口优惠

为了确保国内食品供应并控制食品价格的上升，中国取消了对一系列食品出口税的减免。据中央政府网站一项声明，大豆、小麦、大米、玉米、棉花、大麦、燕麦以及用这些谷物加工的面粉等农产品的出口税优惠已于１２月２０日起取消。豆粕没有被包含在取消之列。上个月中国的食品成本上升了１８．２％，使通货膨胀率达到了１１年来的最高点。政府已开始调用国家储备的玉米、小麦和植物油，并要求当地有关当局加大紧急储备力度。

大豆类产品期价有升有降－大豆期价创新高　

大豆类产品在１２月２０日收盘时价格有升有降，其中大豆期货收盘价创下新高。由于老茬大豆合约的持有进一步扩大，且本月新、老茬大豆经过大幅反向变化后开始进一步产生影响，因此上周延期合约继续表现出最强势头。豆粕期价在大豆期价的带动下也呈上升之势，豆油期价则因石油价格下跌而承受压力。１月份大豆期货价格上升＄０．６４为＄４２６．５０，３月份上升＄０．７３，为＄４３３．４８，５月份上升＄１．１０为４３９．３６；１月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１．５４为＄３５８．３６，３月上升＄２．３１为＄３６５．８５，５月份上升＄１．６５为＄３６９．７１；１月份豆油期货价格下跌＄４．４１为＄１０２８．００，３月份下跌＄３．０９为＄１０４１．４５，５月份下跌＄１．９８为＄１０５４．９０。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

***The Soy Export Weekly Will Not Be Published On December 31 In Recognition Of The New Year Holiday. Publication Will Resume On January 7.***

Bush Signs Energy Bill

President Bush last week signed into law the omnibus energy bill that Congress has been laboring over for the past two years. Congressional Democrats immediately promised they would introduce additional energy legislation early in 2008 to address issues not covered in the latest bill.

The energy bill mandates 500 million gallons of biodiesel usage in 2009 that expands to 1 billion gallons in 2012. This locks in roughly 3.75 billion pounds of vegetable oil and animal fat demand during 2009 and roughly 7.5 billion pounds of demand in 2012. It appears that the initial target for 2009 is doable as biodiesel production has been running at an annual rate of 500 million gallons or better since May, but that rate has declined in September and October and the target for 2012 could be hard to reach if mandates elsewhere in the world are too large. While the biodiesel mandate does not kick in until 2009, a higher RFS schedule for ethanol goes into effect for 2008 and beyond that ensures that most all of the new ethanol production capacity slated to be completed will have to operate. This does not necessarily portend higher corn demand than analysts currently project, but is does provide a higher floor for prospective corn usage and may make it harder for soybeans to attract acreage.

Key features included in the latest energy law:

• A mandated 40 percent increase in fuel efficiency by 2020, from the current 25 miles per gallon to 35;
• A mandate that 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels be used by 2022, with 15 billion gallons being corn-based ethanol by 2015; and
• A mandate that 1 billion gallon biodiesel be used mandate by 2012.

In related news, the recently passed Senate farm bill also has major renewable energy items. They include:

• Biodiesel tax credits: Extends for two years (through December 31, 2010) the $1.00 and 50-cent production tax credits for biodiesel. Extends for four years (through December 31, 2012) the 10-cent per-gallon tax credit on the first 15 million gallons of biodiesel production for producers with annual capacity of not more than 60 million gallons. Cost: $267 million over ten years.

• Renewable diesel incentives: Extends for two years (through December 31, 2010) the $1 tax credit for diesel created through a thermal depolymerization process and caps, on a per facility basis, the $1 credit at 60 million gallons per year. Cost: $211 million over ten years.

U.S Export Pace Picking Up

U.S. soybean exports got off to a slow start this marketing year due to stiff South American competition. The U.S. export pace now is picking up with South American shipments diminishing as the U.S. has a huge book of outstanding sales to ship against. While the shipment pace to date does not suggest that a 2007-08 export forecast of 27.9 million tonnes can be attained, the overall level of export commitments suggest that it can be easily reached. It appears that the odds are becoming greater that South American soybean production will fall short of current forecasts than exceed them. Argentina is experiencing dry weather that typically is associated with La Nina conditions, which has delayed soybean plantings and threatens to undermine soybean yields there. In La Nina years, Argentine soybean yields typically are no better than trend and resulting moisture shortages can cause losses of up to 4 million tonnes.

The Brazilian soybean crop generally has been treated favorably thus far and planting is nearing completion. However, Brazilian government agencies see soybean area increasing by less than 2 percent. Also, Brazil’s CONAB typically understates area increases by 3 percent in years of sizable increases. Yield ideas for this year’s crop also may have to be trimmed in light of last year’s crop appearing to be overstated by perhaps 2 to 3 million tonnes given what Brazilian exports and the crush are looking to be. Last year’s crop was treated very favorably and a downward revision in that crop could reduce its yield below what currently is forecast for this year’s crop.

Census Reports Larger Then Anticipated November Crush

The Census Bureau reported a larger-than-anticipated November crush of 4.26 million tonnes that was about 40,800 tonnes above trade expectations as the difference between the Census and NOPA crush widened further. The Census Bureau confirmed that soybean oil stocks remained just above 1.36 million tonnes and reflected an even large contra-seasonal increase in the soybean oil yield than was implied by the NOPA report. Soybean meal production and the meal yield were surprisingly large for November with the meal yield in October and November running slightly above what the NOPA report would suggest. As a consequence of the larger crush and meal yield, November domestic soybean meal usage is not off nearly as much as previously thought, undermining indications that current high prices may be reining in ongoing soybean meal demand.

China Cancels Grain Export Incentives

China has eliminated export tax rebates on a range of food commodities as part of a series of measures to secure domestic supplies and control rising food prices, according to. The tax incentives on exports of crops including soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, barley and oats, as well as flour milled from these grains, was eliminated beginning December 20, according to a statement on the central government’s Web site. Soybean meal was not included in the statement. China’s food costs gained 18.2 percent last month, pushing inflation to the highest in 11 years. The government has sold corn, wheat and vegetable oil from state reserves and asked local authorities to boost emergency stockpiles.

Soy Complex Mixed – Beans Hit New High

The soy complex closed mixed on December 20 with soybean futures closing at new highs. The deferred contracts continued to exhibit the most strength last week as the carries in the old-crop contracts expanded and the new-crop/old-crop inverse eroded further after widening considerably this month. Soymeal futures also posted gains on higher soybean prices and at the expense of lower soyoil prices that were under pressure from lower petroleum prices. January bean futures closed up $0.64, finishing at $426.50; March gained $0.73, closing at $433.48; and May was up $1.10, ending at $439.36. January meal increased $1.54 closing at $358.36; March was $2.31 higher, finishing at $365.85; and May meal closed up $1.65 ending at $369.71. January oil decreased $4.41 to finish at $1028.00; March was down $3.09, closing at $1041.45; and May was $1.98 lower, closing at $1054.90.