美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年12月17日）

美国农业部最新报告

由于出口量和压榨量分别上升了５４．４万吨和１３．６万吨，美国农业部上周将２００７－２００８年度的大豆预估转出库存下调至５０３万吨，比１１月份的预测低６８万吨。交易商们对美国农业部预估期末库存的预测介于３９２万吨至５７２万吨之间，平均为５３６万吨。压榨量上升引起的豆粕产量上升被添加到了出口数字中。美国农业部将用于生物柴油的豆油数字下调了１８．１万吨，降至１７２万吨，同时将豆油在国内其它消费领域的用量增加了９．０７万吨。美国豆油出口数字从７０．３万吨上调至７４．８万吨。

美国农业部说，２００７－２００８年度全球油籽产量预计将达到３．９１３亿吨的纪录水平。美国农业部对巴西和阿根廷大豆产量的预测与上个月相同，分别为６２００万吨和４７００万吨，对印度大豆产量的预测比上个月上调１００万吨，达到创纪录的９２０万吨。

美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度全球油籽压榨量上调１４０万吨，主要原因在于印度、中国、巴拉圭和美国的大豆压榨量有所上升。美国农业部还对全球油籽贸易预测进行了调整，主要包括中国大豆进口量上调５０万吨，欧盟２７国的大豆进口量下调５０万吨。由于巴拉圭预估压榨量上调，美国农业部还下调了巴拉圭的大豆出口量。

由于阿根廷和美国大豆库存数字下降，美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度的全球油籽期末库存下调了１８０万吨，降至５４５０万吨。由于阿根廷２００６－２００７年度和２００７－２００８年度的大豆预估出口量均有所上调，美国农业部下调了阿根廷的大豆库存。美国农业部预计２００７－２００８年度全球油籽库存将比２００６－２００７年度下降２２％。

巴西产量最新预测

据巴西农业部作物供应司（ＣＯＮＡＢ）发布的２００７－２００８年度作物播种报告，大豆播种面积预计为２１００万公顷，比上一次的预测低２４万公顷，但比去年高１．３％。ＣＯＮＡＢ在１２月份作出的预测与最终预测之间的误差平均为３％。

另据相关消息，名为“油世界”的油籽分析机构表示，它已下调了对巴西老茬大豆（于２００７年初收割）产量的预测，另外也下调了对巴西２００８年度新茬大豆产量的预测。油世界将巴西在２００７年２月－４月期间的大豆收成预测下调了８０万吨，降至５８５０万吨。“我们已将巴西截止２００８年初的大豆产量预测下调至６１００万吨，比我们上一次的预测低７０万吨，但比去年高２５０万吨，”油世界说。新茬作物产量之所以下调，主要是因为巴西部分地区有可能出现干燥天气，另外，未来几周内亚洲锈病有可能更加严重。

有迹象表明，巴西压榨企业将无法获得足以满足需求的大豆，据此，油世界下调了老茬大豆产量预测。“巴西大豆、豆油及豆粕的出口量最终将低于２００７年１１月和１２月的预测，”油世界说。“由于老茬大豆供货不足，近几周内压榨量出现大幅下降。”

美国油籽压榨者协会公布压榨报告

美国油籽压榨者协会公布的压榨量报告显示，１１月份美国的压榨量为１．４６７亿蒲式耳，低于行业预测的下限。迹象表明，１１月份压榨量的普查数字将与去年的１．５５亿蒲式耳持平。在２００７－２００８年度的前三个里，压榨量始终比去年同期高７００万蒲式耳。尽管大豆压榨量令人失望，但油籽压榨者协会公布的豆油库存数字，经过小幅上调后，已与行业预测基本一致。

１１月份豆油榨油率出现了反季节增长。由于创纪录的老茬大豆供货即将用完，含油量更高的新茬大豆在大豆压榨中似乎正在占据更大的比例。迹象表示，１１月份国内豆粕使用量非常小，但１０月份的国内使用量却非常大，这是因为在１１月份大型出口项目开始之前，大量豆粕可能已在运输途中。

农业法案已提交两院协商委员会

上周参议院通过了自己的农业法案，这意味着参众两院协商会议作为一场真正的战斗终于拉开序幕。会议上布什政府将与美国农业部官员展开前所未有的争辩。会议的主要议题将围绕农业法案的拨款方案进行：如果白宫决定将增税措施包含在内，布什总统的顾问将会建议总统否决该措施。众议院农业委员会主席柯林∙彼特森（明尼苏达州民主党人）说，他已制定了一项处理拨款问题的策略。

农业部代理部长查克∙克纳上周明确表示，布什政府有关否决农业法案的表态是认真的。克纳说，参众两院的农业法案都“处在一个错误的轨道上，”需要在布什总统签署之前进行实质性修订。观察人士说，民主党和共和党中都有一些人认为总统对法案的否决对自己的政党有利。民主党认为，否决农业法案将有助于他们在２００８年大选时赢得更多农村选票并在一些农业州胜出。一些共和党人认为，如果会议报告决定通过提高税率来筹集农业法案中增加的支出款项，那么布什总统及其他共和党人最终会发现，这样做根本无法抵消在其它方面多出的开支。

布什政府说，参议院和众议院的农业法案在税务和预算方面暗含不确定性，缺乏充分革新。关键的政治问题在于布什是否愿意在大选年度否决一项在共和党各州广受欢迎的法案，以及民主党派是否能说服足够多的共和党员推翻总统的否决。如果最终的农业法案包含税率提高措施，大部分观察人士认为布什总统在是否要动用否决权的问题上会犹豫。而且，否决含有增税措施的法案以取悦共和党选民，这是即使农业州的一些共和党人都可能已忘却的事情。

由于美元坚挺且能源市场疲软，多数大豆类产品期价下跌

由于美元呈现挺势且能源价格出现下跌，多数大豆类产品在１２月１３日收盘时价格下跌。１月份大豆期货价格下跌＄２．０２为＄４２１．０８，３月份下跌＄１．７５，为＄４２８．４３，５月份下跌＄１．３８为４３３．３９；１２月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１．８７为＄３５４．０６，１月下跌＄０．９９为＄３５４．５０，３月份下跌＄０．５５为＄３６１．２２；１２月份豆油期货价格下跌＄５．５１为＄１０１４．１２，１月份下跌＄９．４８为＄１０１９．８５，３月份下跌＄１０．１４为＄１０３３．３０。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Report Recap

USDA last week lowered its 2007-08 soybean carryout to 5.03 million tonnes, which is down 680,000 tonnes from its November estimate, on a 544,000 tonne boost to exports and a 136,000 tonnes increase in the crush. Trade expectations for USDA’s ending stocks projection had ranged from 3.92 million tonnes to 5.72 million tonnes, with an average of 5.36 million tonnes. The increased soybean meal production resulting from the larger crush was added to exports. USDA’s projected usage of soyoil in biodiesel was cut by 181,000 tonnes to 1.72 million tonnes, while 90,700 tonnes was added to other domestic usage of soybean oil. U.S. soyoil exports were increased from 703,000 tonnes to 748,000 tonnes.

Global oilseed production for 2007-08 is projected at a record 391.3 million tonnes, USDA said. USDA’s soybean production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina were unchanged from last month at 62 million tonnes and 47 million tonnes, respectively. Projected soybean production for India increased 1 million tonnes from last month to a record 9.2 million tonnes, USDA said. 

Global oilseed crush for 2007-08 is up 1.4 million tonnes due mainly to higher soybean crush for India, China, Paraguay, and the United States. Major changes by USDA in its global oilseed trade forecast include a 0.5-million tonne increase in China soybean imports and a 0.5-million tonne decrease in EU-27 soybean imports. Paraguay soybean exports also declined reflecting a higher projected crush, according to USDA.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2007-08 are reduced 1.8 million tonnes to 54.5 million tonnes, reflecting lower soybean stocks for Argentina and the United States. Argentina stocks were reduced by USDA because of a projected increase in soybean exports for both 2006-07 and 2007-08. Global oilseed stocks for 2007-08 are projected by USDA to be down 22 percent from 2006-07.

Brazil Crop Update

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture’s supply department (CONAB) issued an update for the 2007-08 crop plantings. Soybean area was estimated at 21 million hectares, which was 240,000 hectares below its previous estimate and 1.3 percent above last season. CONAB’s December area estimate has averaged a 3 percent error predicting the final.

In related news, oilseeds analysts “Oil World” said it has cut its estimate of Brazil’s old crop soybean harvest gathered in early 2007 and also its forecast for the country’s new crop in 2008. It has cut its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest in February/April 2007 by 800,000 tonnes to 58.5 million tonnes. “We have reduced our Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 61.0 million tonnes for early 2008, down by 700,000 tonnes from our previous estimate but up by 2.5 million tonnes from the last year,” it said. The reason for the new crop cut was largely concern about dry weather in parts of Brazil and fears the Asian Rust crop disease will become more severe in coming weeks.

Oil World also cut its old crop estimate following indications that Brazilian crushers cannot find enough soybeans to cover their needs. “Brazilian exports of soybeans as well as of soyoil and meal will turn out smaller than expected in November and December 2007,” it said. “Crushings have declined sharply in recent weeks due to insufficient old crop supplies.”

NOPA Crush Report

The NOPA crush for November was reported at 146.7 million bushels, below the low end of trade expectations. The implied Census crush for November looks to be equal to last year’s crush of 155 million bushels. During the first three months of 2007/08, the crush has been 7 million bushels above last year. While the soybean crush was disappointing, NOPA’s soybean oil stocks largely were in line with trade expectations as they increased slightly from the previous month.

The soyoil yield increased contra-seasonally in November. It appears that higher oil content of new-crop soybeans are making up a larger share of the crush as record old-crop soybean supplies are used up. Implied soybean meal domestic disappearance for November was rather small, but October domestic use was quite large as there may have been a large amount of soybean meal in the transportation pipeline ahead of November big export program.

Farm Bill Moves To Conference Committee

After the Senate last week passed its version of the farm bill, the real battle now begins: the House-Senate conference. That is where the Bush administration and USDA officials will have far more leverage than occurred curing floor debates. The main topic in conference will be the financing package of the farm bill: if the White House determines that it contains any tax increases, President Bush’s advisors will recommend that he veto the measure. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) says he has a conference strategy to deal with the financing issue, but has provided no details.

Acting Agriculture Secretary Chuck Conner last week made it clear that the Bush administration is serious regarding its farm bill veto threats. Conner said both the House and Senate farm bills were “on the wrong track” and need substantial changes before President Bush will sign the measure. Observers say that there are some Democrats and Republicans who both think a presidential veto would work to their party’s advantage. The Democrats think a farm bill veto would help them pick up some additional rural votes and some farm-state victories in 2008 elections. Some Republicans believe that if the conference report retains tax increases to help pay for the additional farm bill spending, President Bush and other Republicans can note that is no way to offset additional spending elsewhere.

The Bush administration says the House and Senate farm bills are packed with taxes and budget gimmicks and lack sufficient reform. The key political question is whether Bush really is willing to cast an election year veto of a bill popular in Republican states, and whether Democrats can peel away enough GOP members to overcome the president’s resistance. If the final farm bill contains tax increases, most observers believe President Bush would not hesitate to use his veto. And, vetoing bills that increase taxes plays to the Republican base voter – something even some farm-state Republicans may have forgotten.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Strong Dollar And Weak Energy Markets

The soy complex closed mostly lower December 13, reflecting a strong dollar and lower energy prices. January bean futures closed down $2.02, finishing at $421.08; March lost $1.75, closing at $428.43; and May was down $1.38, ending at $433.39. December meal increased $1.87 closing at $354.06; January was $0.99 lower, finishing at $354.50; and March meal closed down $0.55 ending at $361.22. December oil decreased $5.51 to finish at $1014.12; January was down $9.48, closing at $1019.85; and March was $10.14 lower, closing at $1033.30.