美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年12月3日）

中国推动美国大豆出口

美国农业部最近公布的对华大豆出口量表明，截止１１月中旬美国对中国的大豆签约出口量已达创纪录的７１０万吨，高于此前任何一年。尽管美国对中国的签约出口量及待履约出口量达到纪录高点，但累计出口检验数量却低于过去４年来的平均水平。对中国的出口进度之所以滞后，是因为今年秋季阿根廷大豆的主要出口对象是中国。９－１１月份中国的进口需求看来比去年的纪录水平高２１％。

由于美国对其它地方的出口量较低，因此自本销售年度开始以来，美国的大豆出口进度总体上一直落后于去年，但是对欧盟和中国的出口量却超过了许多分析人士的预测。基于这一因素以及中国对美国大豆的大幅增购，一些分析人士将２００７－２００８年度美国对非欧盟国家５０万吨的预计出口增幅划转至中国，因此２００７－２００８年度美国的大豆出口量预计约为２７２０万吨。美国的签约出口量及待履约出口量表明，当南美的出口量在１２月－２月期间出现下降时，美国的出口进度将逐步加快。

中国有望进一步下调大豆进口关税

一些新闻报道援引亚洲交易商的话说，中国有可能将大豆１％的进口关税的执行时间进一步延长，并下调豆油进口税。另外，中国还有可能免除进口大豆和豆油１３％的增值税。有报道说，为了抑制国内价格上涨，中国政府正在设法增加大豆进口量。

根据中国海关总署的统计数字，中国在１０月份进口了２８５万吨大豆。中国在今年的前１０个月里共进口了２４５４万吨大豆，比去年同期高４．５％。

“由于今年国内大豆产量下降，目前大豆进口增幅已达２００４年以来的同期最高水平，”南华期货分析师李洪雷（音译）对国际文传电讯社说。“尽管进口量迅速增长，但国内大豆价格仍有可能继续上涨，因为目前国际大豆价格也比较高。”对于仅次于美国的世界第二大产豆国巴西而言，大豆价格的回升可能来得太迟了，无法明显促进来年巴西大豆播种面积的增长。

美国农业部预计今年国内农业净收入将达纪录水平

美国农业部上周预测，由于美国商品价格持续上涨，今年美国的农业净收入将达到创纪录的８７５亿美元，明显高于２００６年的约５９０亿美元。以前的农业净收入最高纪录是２００４年创下的８５９亿美元。美国农业部的最新数据显示，美国２００７年的净现金收入预计将达到８５７亿美元，比２００６年高１７８亿美元，比过去１０年来的平均水平高２０３亿美元。这一数字仅仅略微低于２００５年创下的８５８亿美元的纪录。

美国农业部说，净现金收入和净农业收入年度增长的主要区别在于，２００７年的库存总额增加了５８亿美元，其中５７亿美元来自作物库存的增长，这说明产量和平均价格均有所增长。产量的上升可能会给运输设施和销售渠道造成过大压力，使商品价格受到抑制，使商品上市时间推迟到年底供货高峰过后。净现金收入在２００６年曾跌至接近１０年来平均值的水平，不过到了２００７年，由于现金收入增幅明显高于预计的支出增幅，因此净现金收入预计会达到最高水平。

“美国农民之所以能享受到更高售价，主要是因为国内生物柴油行业及国外购买者的需求强劲。因此许多农产品可以高价售出，”美国农业部在其农业收入报告中说。据农业部分析，美国农产品需求上升的部分原因有三方面：一是其它国家降雨量偏低，二是全球消费出现上升，三是美元的疲软使“农场产品售价的增长超过了生产成本的增长。”

美国农业部预计，２００７年农场的产值增长将超过３００亿美元，达到１４８５亿美元，创１９８４年以来的年度最高增幅，其中许多田间作物都将创下现金收入最高纪录。美国农业部说，作为收入最高的两种作物，玉米和大豆预计都会出现收入增长，其中玉米收入将达到近３３０亿美元，大豆收入将达到２１０亿美元。

印度在２００７－２００８年度可能会提高食用油进口量

印度一位高级官员说，为了填补产量和需求之间日益扩大的差距，印度明年可能会扩大植物油进口量。在接受《大众公志》采访时，印度炼油企业协会执行董事梅塔说，据他初步预计，２００７－２００８年度印度的食用油进口量将达到５９０万吨，比上一年度的５５９万吨高５．５％。

去年国内食用油产量约为７００万吨，而全年消费量为１２６０万吨，不过据《大众公志》报道，梅塔告诫说，由于油籽播种面积下降，进口量必须增加。“很多耕地都改种了小麦等现金收益更具吸引力的作物，”梅塔说。

印度炼油企业协会预计，在需求每年增长４％的情况下，目前需求和产量之间的差距为７０万吨。梅塔说，最终预测要等到作物收割时才能做出，但早期的预测表明，产量将低于原先的预计。“初步预测表明，国内产量将会供不应求，因此只能通过进口来弥补，”梅塔说。

由于油价下跌且美元走强，大豆类产品期价有升有降

由于大豆期价和原油期价一样，未能保持早些时候的涨势，１１月２９日收盘时大豆类产品期价有升有降。美元的继续走强也对期价构成抑制。美元的进一步走强以及能源价格的疲软可能会继续影响大豆类产品期价。１月份大豆期货价格上升＄０．４６为＄４０３．４４，３月份上升＄０．５５，为＄４０９．６９，５月份上升＄０．９２为４１２．３５；１２月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄０．１１为＄３２１．９８，１月下跌＄１．１０为＄３２５．８４，３月份下跌＄０．２２为＄３３２．３４；１２月份豆油期货价格上升＄１．５４，为＄１０１８．５３，１月份上升＄１．３２为＄１０２８．２３，３月份不变，仍为＄１０４１．６７。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

China Driving U.S. Soybean Exports

Recent USDA reports of soybean sales to China have pushed U.S. export commitments to China to a record 7.1 million tonnes through mid-November. Export commitments to China have been running above any previous year. While U.S. export commitments and outstanding sales to China are record large, cumulative export inspections to China are smaller than the previous 4 years. The lagging shipment pace to China is because of large Argentine exports this fall that are dominantly going to China. Chinese import demand during September/November looks to 21 percent above the previous year’s record.

Although the overall U.S. export pace has lagged last year’s since the start of the marketing year, shipments to the EU and China have exceeded many analysts’ expectations with shipments going elsewhere coming up short. As a consequence of this and the surge in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, some analysts have shifted up to 500,000 tonnes of 2007-08 U.S. exports from non-EU destinations to China, keeping overall 2007-08 U.S. exports at roughly 27.2 million tonnes. U.S. export commitments and outstanding sales suggest that the U.S. shipment pace should pick up as South American exports subside in the December/February quarter.

China Expected To Extend Reduced Import Duty For Soybeans

Asian traders cited by news services said China is likely to extend the reduced import duty of 1 percent on soybeans and lower its tax on soyoil imports. China also is likely to exempt imports of soybeans and soyoil from the 13 percent value-added tax. The Chinese government is looking to increase soy imports in an effort to curb domestic price inflation, reports say.

China imported 2.85 million tonnes of soybeans in October, according to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, and 24.54 million tonnes in the first 10 months of the year - a 4.5 percent increase from the same period last year.

“The growth rate for soybean imports have reached their highest level since 2004 due to reduced domestic soybean output this year,” Li Honglei, analyst at Nanhua Futures, told news agency Interfax. “Domestic soybean prices are likely to continue rising, despite the fast growth in imports, because of the high level of international prices.” The rally in soybean prices might come too late to significantly boost acreage in Brazil, the world’s second biggest producer after the United States, for the coming year.

USDA Expects Record Net Farm Income This Year

Rising prices for U.S. commodities should propel U.S. net farm income to a record $87.5 billion this year, up sharply from about $59 billion in 2006, USDA forecast last week. The previous record high for net farm income was $85.9 billion in 2004. Net cash income is forecast to be $85.7 billion in 2007, up $17.8 billion from 2006 and $20.3 billion above its 10-year average, according to USDA’s latest update. This is only slightly below the prior record level of $85.8 billion set in 2005.

The primary difference between the year-to-year rise in net cash income and net farm income is a $5.8-billion addition to inventories in 2007, USDA said, of which $5.7 billion is from a build up in crop inventories, reflecting both higher production levels and higher average prices. Large crops tend to overload transportation and marketing facilities, depressing commodity prices and increasing incentives to delay marketing until the glut of commodities has been absorbed after the end of the year. After dropping back to near its 10-year moving average in 2006, net cash income in 2007 is now forecast to be near its record level due to a surge in cash receipts much larger than the projected increase in expenses.

“The higher prices available to U.S. farmers are principally resulting from strong demand from the domestic biofuels industry and from foreign buyers. As a result, farmers have lots of production to sell at high prices,” USDA said in its farm income report. The surge in demand for U.S. crops is partly the result of low rainfall in other countries, rising international consumption and a weak U.S. dollar that has boosted “farm-level prices to a level that more than offsets the increase in production costs,” USDA noted.

USDA forecast the value of production in the farm sector would rise by over $30 billion in 2007, the largest annual increase since 1984, to $148.5 billion, with many field crops posting record cash receipts. USDA said receipts from corn and soybeans – the top two crops in receipts – are both expected to rise, with corn receipts reaching nearly $33 billion and soybeans $21 billion.

India Expects To Increase Imports Of Edible Oils In 2007-08

India may import greater volumes of vegetable oils next year in order to bridge the growing gap between production and demand, according to a top official in the country. In an interview with the Public Ledger, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEAI), said that he has initially pegged edible oil imports for the 2007-08 season at 5.9 million tonnes, up 5.5 percent from the 5.59 million tonnes purchased in the 2006-07 season.

Domestic production of edible oils last season was around 7 million tonnes, which puts annual consumption at 12.6 million tonnes, but according to the Public Ledger, Mehta warned that extra imports are required because of the dwindling area under oilseed cultivation. “Much of the area has been diverted to more lucrative cash crops like wheat,” he said.

SEAI estimates that at present, the gap between demand and production is 700,000 tonnes with demand rising at a rate of 4 percent annually. Mehta said that a final estimate will not be made until the winter crop is harvested, but early forecasts predict a lower-than-expected crop. “Preliminary estimates indicate that there could be a shortfall in domestic production and this has to be made good by way of imports,” he said.
 
Soy Complex Mixed On Lower Oil Prices And A Stronger U.S. Dollar

The soy complex closed mixed on November 29 as soybean futures were unable to hold onto early gains as crude oil futures did the same. Also limiting gains was ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar. Further strength in the U.S. dollar and a relaxation of energy prices likely would undermine soybean complex futures. January bean futures closed up $0.46, finishing at $403.44; March gained $0.55, closing at $409.69; and May was up $0.92, ending at $412.35. December meal decreased $0.11 closing at $321.98; January was $1.10 lower, finishing at $325.84; and March meal closed down $0.22 ending at $332.34. December oil closed $1.54 higher to finish at $1018.53; January was up $1.32, closing at $1028.23; and March was unchanged, closing at $1041.67.