美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年11月19日）

＊ ＊＊由于感恩节的到来，１１月２６日的《每周快报》将暂停一期，１２月３日恢复正常＊＊＊

ＮＯＰＡ公布最新压榨数字

据美国油籽加工者协会（ＮＯＰＡ）最新公布的数字，１０月份美国大豆压榨量为４２２万吨，比行业预计低２．７２万吨。１０月份的豆油出油率与往年同期相比创下第二高纪录，仅次于２００５年１０月。ＮＯＰＡ公布的１０月底豆油库存比上个月高５．３５万吨，比去年同期高１．９１万吨。这意味着普查局的豆油库存数字将超过１３６万吨，同时也说明用于生物柴油的豆油数量继９月份大幅下降后，１０月份进一步下降。

市场似乎希望借助生物柴油生产商将豆油库存维持在更接近１３６万吨的水平上。另外，还有迹象表明，由于近来开始对中国出口，美国的豆油出口量可能会超过分析人士预计的６３．５万吨。

尽管２００７－２００８年度初期出口进度缓慢，但全年出口量预计仍将达到２７２０万吨

本销售年度到目前为止，美国对欧盟２７国和中国的大豆出口检查量，无论是合计还是分别计算，均低于往年，但是本销售年度的累计检查量仍足以确保全年出口总量达到预计的２７２０万吨。

造成美国大豆出口量同比下降的原因并非全球需求萎缩，而是南美竞争力有所加强。９月份和１０月份美国的出口量比去年同期下降了２０％，巴西的出口量比去年同期下降了６％，但阿根廷的出口量却是去年同期的三倍。阿根廷的出口大豆绝大多数销售到了中国，就本销售年度截止目前而言，阿根廷对中国新增的出口量已超过美国对中国减少的出口量。

由于美国对中国的预订出口量达到最高纪录，这意味着当阿根廷的大豆出口进度逐渐放慢时，美国对中国的出口量将开始上升，但就目前看来，阿根廷的出口量在１１月份会继续保持强劲势头。尽管欧盟２７国及世界其它国家的大豆进口需求未见起色，但这些地区本年度的豆粕进口量却明显上升。　

美国农业部１１月份对预估单位产量的调整幅度非常小

在过去三个月里，美国农业部均没有上调自己对大豆单位产量的预测，本月只是将每公顷的单位产量下调了０．００６７吨，降至每公顷２．７７吨。美国农业部在３月份的作物前景预测会议上预计，２００７年美国大豆的单位产量为每公顷２．７９吨，自那时以来，美国农业部基本没有调整过这一预测。美国农业部在５月份、６月份和７月份的供需报告中均维持了３月份的单产预测，这一预测与美国农业部统计局（NASS）８月份基于调查的首次单产预测相同。NASS在９月份和１０月份公布的基于调查的单产预测为每公顷２．７８吨，１１月份公布的预测为每公顷２．７７吨。

美国农业部对２００７年单位产量的预测保持稳定，这一点是值得注意的，因为将过去５年来的基本预测放在一起，就可以看出，今年的情况恰好延续了去年的趋势。８月至１１月，美国农业部对单位产量的调整幅度为每公顷０．０１３４吨，这是自１９９７年（当年的调整幅度为０．００６７吨）以来同期调整幅度最小的一次。１９９７年，美国农业部于９月份将预估单产下调了０．０２０１吨，１０月份又上调了０．０１３４吨。过去２０年来，８月份到９月份预估单产的调整幅度平均为每公顷０．１２７７吨，过去５年来的平均调整幅度为每公顷０．２３５３吨。

美国农业部如果在１１月份对玉米的预估单产进行调整，通常预示着１月份也会做出相同方向的调整，但１１月份大豆预估单产的调整却和１月份的预估单产没有关系。因此，目前基本没有理由推断美国农业部在１月１１日公布的年度作物报告中会上调还是下调预估产量。１１月份到１月份预估单产的调整幅度通常为每公顷０．０３３６吨或更小，但也有可能比较大，就像有些年份那样，因先前调整幅度过小而加大调整幅度。　

参议院农业法案仍难有进展

除非参议院多数派领导人海瑞∙雷德（内华达州民主党人）和少数派领导人米奇∙迈克耐尔（肯塔基州民主党人）出人意料地达成突破性共识，否则就本文发布之时而言，国会很可能会暂停农业法案的审议，而进入为期两周的感恩节休会期。

双方仍就有待审议的修订的数量和范围存在很大分歧。据报道，民主党派希望将各方的修订数量限定在十项在内，或最多不超过十二、三项。他们还希望规定修订内容必须与基本的农业法案密切相关。共和党派则对这两方面的限定表示不满，提出修订应以“开放程序”为基础。

目前无论从时间上还是从参议院规则上来看，农业法案都很难在２００７通过议会审议。如果这种僵局一直持续到感恩节休会期前夕，那么参议院在１２月３日结束休会期后将只有３周的时间审批这项立法。那时摆在参议员面前的将是一系列有待审议的拨款措施及其它必要议案。

因此，农业法案的审议过程看来越来越有可能会延续到２００８年。如果国会在２００８年初仍未就新法案达成一致，届时将很有可能对当前法案进行至少是短时间的延期。

由于石油价格下跌以及美元进一步坚挺，大豆类产品期价有升有降

受石油价格下跌的影响，豆粕期价上升，豆油期价下跌，因此大豆类产品在１１月１５日收盘时价格呈有升有降之势。尽管美元进一步走强、玉米期价下跌、外部市场下滑，但大豆期价仍保持稳定。大豆及豆产品期价基本没有变化。本周大豆期价相对于玉米出现了上升，这使得明年美国大豆的播种面积有可能扩大，但还要再过几个月，农民才会最终做出２００８年播种面积的决定。１月份大豆期货价格下跌＄０．２８为＄３９６．３７，３月份上升＄０．０９，为＄４０２．０６，５月份上升＄０．２８为４０３．５３；１２月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１．２１为＄３２３．５３，１月上升＄１．２１为＄３２５．６２，３月份上升＄１．６５为＄３３０．２５；１２月份豆油期货价格下跌＄８．６０，为＄９８４．５７，１月份下跌＄９．９２为＄９９３．６１，３月份下跌＄１０．３６为＄１００４．２０。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

***The Soy Export Weekly Update Will Not Be Published On November 26 Because Of The U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday. Publication Will Resume December 3.***

NOPA Crush Recap

The National Oilseed Processors Association’s (NOPA) soybean crush for October was 4.22 million tonnes, which was 27,200 tonnes below trade expectations. The October soybean oil yield was the second highest for that month, only surpassed by the record high oil yield in 2005. NOPA’s soybean oil stocks for the end of October were 53,500 tonnes above the previous month and 19,100 tonnes above last year. This implies Census soybean oil stocks back above 1.36 million tonnes and suggests that the usage of soybean oil in biodiesel production dropped further during October from September’s steep drop.

It appears that the market is putting a squeeze on biodiesel producers to maintain soybean stocks closer to 1.36 million tonnes. There also are indications that U.S. soybean oil exports could be larger than analysts’ forecast of 635,000 tonnes because of recent sales to China.

Despite Slow Start, Export Sales Still Expected To Hit 27.2 Million Tonnes In 2007-08

U.S. soybean export inspections so far this marketing year have been lagging in total and also individually to the EU-27 and China. However, cumulative marketing year inspections have been large enough to support industry export estimates of a 27.2 million tonnes for 2007-08.

The year-over-year declines in U.S. soybean exports are not because of erosion in world import demand, but because of increased South American competition. September and October U.S. exports were 20 percent below last year and Brazilian shipments were 6 percent below last year while Argentine exports tripled that of last year. The vast majority of Argentina’s soybean exports go to China, which more than offset the reduction in U.S. shipments to China so far this marketing year.

Record large U.S. export commitments to China suggest that U.S. soybean exports to China should pick up as Argentina’s export pace diminishes, but Argentine exports look like they will be strong again in November. While soybean import demand for the EU-27 and the rest of the world is flat, those areas are importing considerably more soybean meal this year.

USDA November Yield Adjustment Remarkably Small

For the third consecutive month, USDA did not increase its soybean yield forecast, instead trimming that yield by 0.0067 tonnes per hectare to 2.77 tonnes per hectare. USDA’s 2007 U.S. soybean yield has changed very little from the 2.79 tonnes per hectare yield that USDA first released at its March outlook conference. That yield was maintained in USDA’s May, June and July supply and demand reports and also was NASS’s first survey-based yield in the August crop report. Subsequent survey-based yields were 2.78 tonnes per hectare in September and October and 2.77 tonnes per hectare in the November crop report.

The stability in USDA’s 2007 yield forecasts, which actually extends as far back as a year ago when the 5-year baseline forecasts were put together, is quite remarkable. The 0.0134 tonnes per hectare change in USDA’s yield from August to November is the smallest since a 0.0067 tonnes per hectare change in 1997. In that year, USDA cut its yield by 0.0201 tonnes per hectare in September and took it back up by 0.0134 tonnes per hectare in October. The change from August to November has averaged 0.1277 tonnes per hectare over the last 20 years and 0.2353 tonnes per hectare over the last 5 years.

Unlike USDA’s corn yield change in November that usually portends another change in the same direction in January, there is no relationship between November and January soybean yield changes. Thus, there is little reason to have a bias one way or the other as to whether the crop will be larger or smaller in USDA’s annual crop report on January 11. Yield changes from November to January typically are 0.0336 tonnes per hectare or less, but are prone to be just as large in years when yield changes up to that point were small as when the preceding yield changes were large.

Senate Farm Bill Remains Securely Stuck

Barring an unanticipated breakthrough agreement between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), as of publication it appears Congress will break for a two-week Thanksgiving recess without reopening the farm bill debate.
 
The two sides continue to be worlds apart on both the number and scope of any amendments that would be offered as part of the debate. Democrats reportedly would like to limit each side of the aisle to offering amendments in single- or low double-digits. They also want to require that those amendments be germane to the underlying farm bill. Republicans bridle at both limited and germane amendments, calling instead for an “open process,” whatever that means.

Both the clock and Senate rules are working against moving the farm bill through that chamber in 2007. If the situation remains in gridlock before the Thanksgiving recess, the Senate will have a maximum of just three weeks to approve the legislation when Congress reconvenes Dec. 3. Competing with the farm bill for senators’ attention at that time will be a number of appropriations measures and other must-have bills.

So the farm bill debate increasingly looks like it will be continued into 2008. If Congress cannot agree on new legislation early in 2008, the possibility of at least a short-term extension of current legislation becomes increasing likely.

Soy Complex Mixed On Lower Petroleum Prices And Stronger U.S Dollar

The soy complex closed mixed on November 15, with soybean meal posting gains and soybean oil dropping on lower petroleum prices. Soybean futures managed to hold steady despite a stronger U.S. dollar, lower corn futures and lower outside markets. Soybean and product futures were little changed overnight. Soybean futures have gained on corn this week, putting soybeans in a better position to regain U.S. acres next year, but farmers are months away from finalizing their 2008 planting decisions. January bean futures closed down $0.28, finishing at $396.37; March gained $0.09, closing at $402.06; and May was up $0.28, ending at $403.53. December meal increased $1.21 closing at $323.53; January was $1.21 higher, finishing at $325.62; and March meal closed up $1.65 ending at $330.25.84. December oil closed $8.60 lower to finish at $984.57; January was down $9.92, closing at $993.61; and March lost $10.36, closing at $1004.20.