美国大豆协会－国际项目 每周快报
2009年10月05日
The Soy Export Weekly Update
美国农业部报告概要
今天（10月2日）上午，美国农业部发布了九月一日美国谷物存货报告及小谷物产量年度报告，表明其在上周已解决了若干问题。美国农业部找到了在当前使用比率下美国大豆最低限度库存水平：376万吨，而统计学上的预测数据为288－305万吨。美国农业部还将2008年大豆产量上调了21.8万吨到8,070万吨。修改后的库存水平将加进2009年度大豆供应量之中并将提高期末库存估计数。
分析师们预计这导致2008－09年度残值使用量仅为27.2万吨。该数据还将依据普查局即将发布的八月份出口和进口数据进行微调。美国农业部所暗示的2007－08年度和2008－09年度的很少的残值使用量使人产生疑问，即，2009－10年度的预测残值量是否应该在218万吨以下，而这会使得2009－10年度结转库存预测量进一步增加。
普查局大豆压榨速度的减缓得到确认
普查局上周确认大豆压榨量在八月份进一步减少到326万吨，是自2004年来八月份的最低压榨量。这使2008－09销售年度的大豆压榨量最后定为4,520万吨。豆粕库存的减少量比分析师们预测的要少，表明国内消耗量令人失望。
新季豆粕和豆油出口销售订单量创下记录
美国大豆待出运出口销售量在2009－10销售年度开始时处于创记录的高位水平。可能并不广为人知的是，新季豆粕和豆油出口销售也处于创纪录的高水平。这些大量的出口销售支持了业内对2009－10年度美国豆粕出口量达到创纪录的966万吨以及豆油出口量将为136万吨的第二大的记录水平的预测。到9月30日的美国新季豆粕出口销售量是创记录的最高水平，高出过去十年间任何一年的同期水平的两倍多。
虽然未知目的地的数量占到今年新季作物豆粕出口销售量的一半，但是销往亚洲的数量创下最高记录，而亚洲是南美豆粕出口继欧盟27国之后的最大目的市场。这在一定程度上证实美国正在重拾一些南美丢失的出口业务。虽然欧盟由于具有大豆或豆粕被少量未经批准的转基因玉米污染的危险而在当前不能进口美国大豆或豆粕，但是销往欧盟27国的订单数量也不同寻常的大。欧盟的买家们对转基因的问题将在南美下个收获季节前得以解决，似乎心存乐观。
普度大学研究显示随着生物燃料生产的增加，玉米－大豆轮种对控制水污染水平更佳
根据普度大学的一项研究，如果乙醇需求导致更多面积种植玉米的话，用于玉米种植的化肥和杀虫剂进入周边水资源的数量将会更多。
印第安纳水资源研究发现，靠近重复种植玉米农田的水源中氮、杀菌剂和磷的含量水平高于玉米－大豆轮种的农田。由农业和生物工程副教授英德拉吉特·乔贝（Indrajeet Chaubey）和农业和生物工程系主任和教授伯纳德·恩格尔（Bernard Engel）进行的研究结果发表在《环境工程杂志》网络初版上。
“从玉米－大豆轮种地到重复种植玉米地，你会发现沉积物流失要大得多，”乔贝说。“沉积物流失增加使得更多的杀菌剂和磷进入水资源中，因为这些化学品随沉积物而移动。”
氮和杀菌剂在玉米作物中大量使用，而大豆中用量较少，在连续种植玉米的农田中发现的数量不断增加。因为在连续种植玉米的农田中常常需要翻耕，沉积物流失便更为常见，而玉米－大豆轮种地更容易成为免耕地，恩格尔说。
美国农业部的数据已经显示玉米面积随着对乙醇的需求已然增加，2007年为3,760万公顷，当年增加了490万公顷。该研究由普度大学和美国农业部共同资助。
荷兰合作银行：价格波动和贸易模式增加了对油籽供货渠道的关注
非传统国家需求和集中供应的不断增长将限制如欧盟这样的净进口油籽市场对货源的选择渠道，荷兰合作银行的一项新报告说。按荷兰合作银行行业分析师韦托·马尔提利（Vito Martielli）的说法，欧盟净进口市场的地位预计将长期继续。价格波动和贸易模式的转变会进一步增加对货源的关注。“油籽商家将面临一个以更高价格波动性和贸易关系转变为特征的全球市场。这会影响油籽的可供量，”马尔提利说。“可靠的货源和供货渠道将为未来关键的成功因素。”
中国预计到2015年将成为蛋白消费的主要国家，其进口量在今后的十年中不断增长，虽然要比以前的速度稍慢一些。中国将增加豆粕需求用于饲料，使得该国超过欧盟成为首要的油籽消费国。中国和巴西之间增强的动物蛋白和油籽贸易关系将进一步限制欧盟的供货渠道选择。
美国走弱及潜在的创纪录单产使得大豆系列产品期价多数走低
大豆系列产品期价10月1日大多收低。上周大豆的价格走势多数归因于美元的不断走弱。同时，大豆单产将达到创纪录的水平也不断被人们所接受，似乎压低了大豆和豆粕期价。预计大豆期价随着进入收获期套保压力和市场对作物预期的增加而受到打压。十一月大豆期价下降3.21美元，结于337.30美元；一月期价跌去3.40美元，收于339.60美元；而三月期价下降3.22美元，结于339.78美元。十月豆粕期价上涨4.41美元，收于313.82美元；十二月期价跌5.18美元，结于309.53美元；而一月豆粕低收5.18美元，结于306.44美元。十月豆油期价涨6.17美元，结于755.08美元；十二月期价上扬5.73美元，收于762.57美元；而一月上涨5.73美元，收于771.83美元。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA Report Recap
USDA last week resolved several issues this morning in its release of September 1 U.S. grain inventories and its small grain production annual report. USDA also resolved the issue of discovering a minimum U.S. soybean stocks level at current usage rates: 3.76 million tonnes versus statistical projections of 2.88–3.05 million tonnes USDA also revised up the 2008 soybean crop by 218,000 tonnes to 80.7 million tonnes. The revised stock level will add to 2009 soybean supplies and boost ending stocks estimates.
Analysts estimate that this results in 2008-09 residual use of just 272,000 tonnes. This is subject to a minor change pending Census export and import figures for August. The small residual use that USDA has implied for 2007-08 and 2008-09 calls into question whether residual use for 2009-10 should be forecast at something smaller than 2.18 million tonnes, which would further add to the projected 2009-10 carryout.
Census Soybean Crush Confirms Slowdown
The Census Bureau last week confirmed that the soybean crush declined further in August to 3.26 million tonnes, the lowest August crush since 2004. This puts the soybean crush for the 2008-09 marketing year at 45.2 million tonnes. Soybean meal stocks declined less than analysts expected, implying disappointing domestic disappearance.
Record New-Crop Export Sales on Books for Meal and Oil
U.S. soybean outstanding export sales are record large at the start of the 2009-10 marketing year. It may not be as widely known that new-crop export sales for both soybean meal and oil also are record large. These large export sales support industry forecasts for 2009-10 U.S. soybean meal exports to be a record large 9.66 million tonnes and for 2009-10 U.S. soybean oil exports to be the second largest on record at 1.36 million tonnes. U.S. new-crop soybean meal export sales through September 30 are the largest on record and more than double any of the last 10 years.
While unknown destinations account for one-half of this year’s new-crop soybean meal export sales, sales are record large to Asia, which is the biggest destination of South American soybean meal exports after the EU-27. This provides some confirmation that the United States is picking up some export business at the expense of South America. Unusually large sales also are on the books to the EU-27 despite the inability of the EU to import U.S. soybeans or soybean meal at the present time because of the risk that they could be contaminated with trace amounts of unapproved GMO corn. There seems to be some optimism on the part of EU buyers that the GMO issue will be resolved before the next South American harvest.
Purdue Study Shows As Biofuel Production Increases, Corn-Soybean Rotation Better For Water Pollution Levels
More of the fertilizers and pesticides used to grow corn would find their way into nearby water sources if ethanol demands lead to planting more acres in corn, according to a Purdue University study.
The study of Indiana water sources found that those near fields that practice continuous-corn rotations had higher levels of nitrogen, fungicides and phosphorous than corn-soybean rotations. Results of the study by Indrajeet Chaubey, an associate professor of agricultural and biological engineering, and Bernard Engel, a professor and head of agricultural and biological engineering, were published in the early online version of The Journal of Environmental Engineering.
“When you move from corn-soybean rotations to continuous corn, the sediment losses will be much greater,” Chaubey said. “Increased sediment losses allow more fungicide and phosphorous to get into the water because they move with sediment.”
Nitrogen and fungicides are more heavily used in corn crops than soybeans, increasing the amounts found in the soil of continuous-corn fields. Sediment losses become more prevalent because tilling is often required in continuous-corn fields, whereas corn-soybean rotations can more easily be no-till fields, Engel said.
USDA data have shown that corn acreage has increased with the demand for ethanol, with 37.6 million hectares in 2007, an increase of 4.9 million hectares that year. The study was jointly funded by Purdue and USDA.
Rabobank: Price Volatility And Trade Patterns Increase Attention On Oilseed Sourcing
Growing demand from non-traditional countries and concentrated supply will limit sourcing options for the net-importing oilseed markets like the EU, a new report Rabobank says. According to Rabobank industry analyst Vito Martielli, the net importer position of the EU is expected to continue in the long term. Price volatility and shifting trade patterns could further increase attention on sourcing. “Oilseed players will face a global market characterized by higher price volatility and shifts in trading relationships, which might impact oilseed availability,” Martielli says. “Secure origination and sourcing will be the key success factors going forward.”
China, predicted to become the dominant protein consumer by 2015, will see imports grow over the next decade, although at a slower pace than before. China will boost meal demand for feed use allowing the country to surpass the EU as the leading oilseed consumer. The strengthened trade relationship in animal protein and oilseeds between China and Brazil will further limit the EU’s sourcing options.
Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Weakening U.S. Dollar And Potential Record Yields
The soy complex closed mostly lower on October 1. Much of the price action in soybeans last week can be attributed to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. Also, increasing acceptance that soybean yields will reach record levels appears to be weighing on soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean futures are expected to be under pressure into harvest as hedging pressure and market expectations for the crop increase. November bean futures were down $3.31, finishing at $337.30; January lost $3.40, closing at $339.60; and March was down $3.22, ending at $339.78. October meal decreased $4.41, closing at $313.82; December was $5.18 lower, finishing at $309.53; and January meal closed down $5.18, ending at $306.44. October soyoil was $6.17 higher, finishing at $755.08; December was up $5.73, closing at $762.57; and January gained $5.73, closing at $771.83.
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