美国大豆协会－国际项目 每周快报
美国农业部九月份供求和作物产量报告概要
人们普遍估计美国农业部会在其九月份的作物报告中提高美国大豆作物产量的预测。报告并没让人失望，所报告的大豆单产较高，为每公顷2.845吨。美国大豆产量定在8,830万吨，与业界估计相符。随着需求从八月份预计的8,460万吨和去年的8,350万吨增加到8,560万吨，美国巨大的产量起了主要的作用。美国农业部增加了2009－10年度54.4万吨的压榨量和40.8万吨的出口量，以此抵消了大部分的产量增量，结果使2009－10年度的结转库存增加了27.2万吨，达到599万吨。
随着世界产量也略微增加，压榨量和出口量均有增加。美国豆粕需求实际上从八月份的2,810万吨削减到2,790万吨，但仍保持了接近2008－09年度的水平，而出口量提高到871万吨。压榨量的增加弥补了较低的印度大豆产量和豆粕出口量。大豆出口的增加抵消了中国较低的产量及随之而来的大豆进口量的增加，也反映了较大的供应量和较低的价格。美国农业部称，巴西来年的大豆作物增加了200万吨，达到6,200万吨。
欧盟农业专员要求就进口中的微量（新的）转基因大豆采取宽容的态度
欧盟农业专员玛丽安·菲舍尔·伯尔（Mariann Fischer Boel）将会推动各成员国政府支持一项迅速的行动来打破大豆进口中出现未经批准的（新的）转基因成分的僵局。在上周的农业委员会会议上对欧洲议会的成员国代表们讲话时，菲舍尔·伯尔要求，在大豆货运经常受到干扰、主产区作物歉收、欧盟牲畜行业不断担心饲料供应的情况下，必须采取行动。
菲舍尔·伯尔接受了欧盟对未经批准的微量（新的）转基因成分采取“零容许度”的政策的失败，并告诉欧洲议会成员国说，全世界生产的80％的大豆都是转基因的，而这样的情况“不会改变。” “如果我们不能依靠这些具有价格竞争力的大豆，我们会毁灭自己的肉类生产，”她补充道。菲舍尔·伯尔说需要采取迅速的行动，还说这个问题下周将提交给各国的农业部长们，要求他们“负起他们各自的责任来。”
一些成员国对大豆进口中出现的未经批准的（新的）微量转基因成分的持续反对，以及欧洲委员会未能批准（新的）转基因申请，都被看作是对当前僵局起关键作用的因素。
油世界：豆油价格因供应紧张而上扬
全球豆油产量正处于下滑的危急关头，引起价格上扬，油籽分析专业机构《油世界》上周说。它估计，与去年同期相比，产量从今年七月到九月底可能下降40万吨，达到900万吨。全球产量可能在2009年4月到6月间减少了73万吨。
“大豆油的供应已经紧张，引发近几周来价格异常强劲，”油世界说。它还称，与2009年因干旱而减少的收获相比，阿根廷和巴西均有可能在来年年初收获更多的大豆作物。阿根廷2010年年初收获的2009－10年度大豆作物将从今年年初的3,220万吨增加到5,200万吨，而巴西的作物预计会达到6,200万吨，而2009年为5,760万吨。
虽然全球豆油需求较大，但是这两个国家都被迫减少了大豆压榨量，一部分原因就是2009年年初歉收之后供应的缺乏。阿根廷2009年的作物因干旱从2008年的4,620万吨急剧减少。糟糕的天气也使巴西2009年的作物比2008年的6,000万吨有所减少。
然而，当前阿根廷的天气适合大豆种植，天气预报称九月和十月的天气也较为有利，油世界说。“我们认为（阿根廷）大豆播种面积与去年的1,750万公顷相比，猛增至1,910到1,950万公顷，是有可能的，”它说。
七月到九月产量减少多数可能是阿根廷的原因，预测其豆油产量减少了30万吨。欧盟和美国也可能出现了产量减少的情况。
中国可能要求压榨行业进行整合
中国的最高计划机构警告说，大豆压榨能力远大于需要。这是最新的一个迹象，表明北京可能推动该行业整合。造船、铝业和大豆压榨行业的能力过剩令人不安，国家发展与改革委员会（NDRC）陈斌司长在一个会议上说。
政府会进一步限制这些行业的扩张并推进这些行业重组，二十一世纪经济导报引述陈司长的话说。他说，一些省份仍然在建设或计划建设新工厂。
中国已经限制了丰益国际的扩张，该企业拥有中国最大的大豆压榨能力，但国有的中粮集团仍在扩张。中粮集团上个月说，它计划在广西南部地区建造一家年加工能力120万吨的大豆压榨厂。行业官员们说去年8,000万吨的大豆年压榨能力中约有一半并没有开工，这个情况今年不可能有改善。很多停产工厂的日加工能力都在1,000吨以下。
供应紧张的情形下美国农业部报告公布之前大豆类商品期货价格大多走低
大豆类商品期货价格9月10日大多低收，反映出供应的紧张。因交易商等待9月11日美国农业部的报告，成交量很少，但是有利的天气以及对美国农业部提高大豆产量预测量的预期给大豆期货价格带来了一些轻微的压力。豆粕期货价格高低不一，而豆油期货价格窄幅收低。九月大豆期价涨4.41美元，结于357.70美元；十一月期价跌去0.73美元，收于340.43美元；而一月期价下降0.83美元，结于343.00美元。九月豆粕期价涨0.22美元，收于384.70美元；十月期价降低1.43美元，结于319.12美元；而十二月豆粕期价涨0.22美元，结于314.71美元。九月豆油期价跌0.66美元，结于742.95美元；十月期价降0.66美元，收于746.48美元；而十二月期价跌去0.66美元，收于755.08美元。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA September Supply/Use And Crop Production Report Recap
USDA was widely expected to boost its U.S. soybean crop production estimate in its September Crop report. It did not disappoint with a higher soybean yield of 2.845 tonnes per hectare. U.S. production of soybeans was pegged at 88.3 million tonnes, which met trade expectations. The huge U.S. crop is the main contributor as demand was boosted to 85.6 million tonnes from 84.6 million tonnes in August and 83.5 million tonnes last year. USDA offset most of the production increase with a 544,000 tonne increase in the 2009-10 crush and a 408,000 tonne increase in 2009-10 exports, resulting in a 272,000 tonne increase in the 2009-10 carryout to 5.99 million tonnes.
Both crush and exports were raised as the world crop was also raised slightly. U.S. soymeal demand was actually cut 27.9 million tonnes from August’s 28.1 million tonnes, but remains near 2008-09 levels, while exports were raised to 8.71 million tonnes. The crush increase was to compensate for lower Indian soybean production and soybean meal exports. The soybean export increase offsets lower Chinese production and an accompanying increase in China’s soybean imports and also reflects larger supplies and lower prices. Brazil’s upcoming soybean crop was increased by 2 million tonnes to 62 million tonnes, USDA said.
EU Farm Commissioner Calls For Leniency With Respect To Traces Of GM Soy In Imports
EU farm commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel will push member states to support rapid action to break the deadlock over unauthorized presence of genetically modified (GM) organisms in soy imports. Addressing Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) at last week’s Agriculture Committee meeting, Fischer Boel called for action in the face of recurrent interruptions of soybean shipments, poor harvests in major growing regions, and rising feed supply fears among the EU’s livestock sector.
Accepting the failures of the EU’s ‘zero tolerance’ policy for unauthorized GM dust, Fischer Boel told MEPs that 80 percent of soybeans produced around the world are GM and this bias “is not going to change.” “If we can’t rely on it at competitive prices we’ll kill our meat production,” she added. Fischer Boel said rapid action is needed, adding that the issue will next week be brought to the attention of agriculture ministers, who will be asked to “take on their responsibilities”.
The continued opposition of some member states to the presence of unapproved GM traces in soybean imports, and failure to approve GM applications at European Council level, are seen as key contributing factors to the current deadlock.
Oil World: Soyoil Prices Increase On Tight Supplies
Global soyoil production is falling against the odds, causing a rise in prices, oilseeds analyst Oil World said last week. Production from July to the end of September this year is likely to fall by 400,000 tonnes to 9 million tonnes from the same period in 2008, it estimated. This would be down by 730,000 tonnes on global production between April and June 2009.
“Soya oil supplies have tightened, triggering remarkable price strength in recent weeks,” Oil World said, adding that both Argentina and Brazil are likely to achieve much larger soybean crops at the beginning of next year than their drought-reduced 2009 harvests. Argentina’s 2009-10 soybean crop for harvesting in early 2010 will rise to 52 million tonnes from 32.2 million tonnes harvested earlier this year, and Brazil’s crop is forecast to reach 62 million tonnes from 57.6 million tonnes in 2009.
Despite high global demand for soyoil, both countries have been forced to reduce soybean crushings, partly due to a lack of supplies following their poor harvests in early 2009. Argentina’s 2009 crop had been sharply reduced by drought from 46.2 million tonnes in 2008. Poor weather also cut Brazil’s 2009 crop from 60 million tonnes in 2008.
However, the current weather in Argentina is suiting soybeans and weather forecasts for September and October are favorable, Oil World said. “We consider it likely that (Argentine) soybean plantings will be boosted to 19.1 million to 19.5 million hectares compared with 17.5 million hectares planted last year,” it said.
Most of the July to September output reduction is likely in Argentina where a 300,000 tonne fall in soyoil production is forecast. Declines could also take place in the EU and the United States.
China May Call For Consolidation In Crushing Sector
China’s top planning body has warned that soybean crushing capacity was far larger than needed, the latest suggestion that Beijing could push for consolidation in the sector. Overcapacity in the shipbuilding, aluminum and soybean crushing industries were worrisome, Chen Bin, department director at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told a conference.
The government would further curb such expansion next and push forward restructuring of those industries, Chen was quoted by the 21st Century Business Herald as saying. He said some provinces were still building or planning to build new plants.
China has already restricted expansion by Wilmar International, which has the largest soybean crushing capacity in the country, but state-owned COFCO was still expanding. COFCO said last month it planned to build a soybean crushing plant with annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes in the southern region of Guangxi. Industry officials said that about half of 80 million tonnes of annual soybean crushing capacity were not operating last year, and the situation was unlikely to improve this year. Many of the closures were plants with daily capacity below 1,000 tonnes.
Soy Complex Mostly Lower Just Ahead Of USDA Report Release On Tight Supplies
The soy complex closed mostly lower on September 10 reflecting tight supplies. Volume was light with traders awaiting the September 11 USDA reports, but favorable weather and expectations for USDA to boost its soybean production forecast brought mild pressure to soybean futures. Soymeal futures were mixed, while soyoil futures closed narrowly lower. September bean futures were up $4.41, finishing at $357.70; November lost $0.73, closing at $340.43; and January was down $0.83, ending at $343.00. September meal increased $0.22, closing at $384.70; October was $1.43 lower, finishing at $319.12; and December meal closed up $0.22, ending at $314.71. September soyoil was $0.66 lower, finishing at $742.95; October was down $0.66, closing at $746.48; and December lost $0.66, closing at $755.08
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