US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会－国际项目每周快报

2009年09月07日

美国农业部大豆作物状况评级跃升至1994年以来的最高水平

继大面积有利的降水之后，美国农业部对截止8月23日的大豆作物评级中的优良率比前一周跃升了3个百分点，为自1994年以来到该日为止作物得到的最佳评级。大豆作物评级远高于平均水平已经有一段时间了，现在处于罕见的水平范围，尽管人们担心作物生长进度有些延迟。大豆作物继续力争与去年的生长进度看齐，约落后于五年平均进度（这其中包括了5个生长进度最快的记录年份中的3个年份）。玉米带西部落后常年不到一周的时间，而玉米带东部落后的时间更多一些，而那里的正常初霜日期也要迟一些。

罕见的高水平的大豆作物状况证明了单产至少可以高达一些分析师的每公顷2.93公吨的预测还是有道理的。这样的单产水平比1986－2008年趋势单产每公顷要高出0.06725公吨。考虑到截止目前如此之高的作物评级，这可能是大豆今年最终单产高于趋势单产的最低的超出量。

七月份大豆压榨量的下降低于预期

普查局报告，七月份大豆压榨量为352万吨。这比市场的预期高出5.44万吨以上，但仍然反映出压榨量比六月份下降了29.9万吨。普查局七月压榨量比NOPA（全国油籽加工者协会）的329万吨要高出22.9万吨，或高7％。这个差异与上月相比相当大，但普查局在2003－04销售年度的下半年期间有数月的压榨量都比NOPA高近7％，那时由于大豆供应量极其紧张，压榨量受到限制，这与今年的情况一样。

普查局七月份豆油存货151万吨基本维持不变，并调减了六月份存货1,360吨，调低到155万吨。豆油用于生产甲基脂（主要为生物柴油）的数量从六月份的4.94万吨增加到七月份的6.8万吨。七月份用于甲基脂生产的油脂总量为15.7万吨，高于六月间的13.2万吨。随着生物柴油生产利润的改善，豆油在生物柴油原料中的份额连续第二个月增长，达到43％。虽然生物柴油生产一直在增加，但七月份它只占生物柴油总产能的19％。

豆粕库存31.8万吨，虽然压榨量较高，仍与分析师们的预测一致。这意味着七月份国内的使用量比预期要好，但仍然比去年低4％，比五年平均量低6％。

驳船运输可能在2008－09年度结束时奠定坚实的基础

如果目前的进度没有变化的话，运往南湾中部的大豆和谷物货运量在2008－09年度将以3,430万吨告终。如果保持这样的进度，通过主要船闸的谷物量在今年将以比去年总运量高出11％而告终。

由于南湾和西北太平洋口岸至日本的海洋运费差价相对较低，以及今秋出口势头强劲，往南湾的驳船运输量预计在该年度初期有很好的记录，预测从九月到二月总量会达到2,060万吨，比去年同期的出口量要多出680万吨。上一次同期运量也有这么高的年份是2003－04年度。作物年度内三分之一的谷物和大豆都在9月1日到12月中旬期间通过主要船闸运往南湾。

今年秋天，驳船市场将呈现更为典型的大豆和谷物往南运输而极少的货物北运的情形，这将要求提高驳船周转的速度。在近乎理想的航运条件下，谷物驳船运费并没有呈现出上一年的过分上扬的情形。

最近的罢工已结束，但阿根廷的农业领袖在计划更多的罢工

抗议政府土地政策的阿根廷农民如计划的那样本周将结束八天的罢工，但已经在组织新一轮的抗议活动，上周一位农民领袖说。农民们将“通过在不同省份的游行，继续抗议活动，显示农民们对这些政策未能出台的后果的担心，”阿根廷农村联盟主席马里奥·拉姆比亚斯（Mario Llambias）说。在一些强硬的农业领袖要求保持抗议活动之后，农业领袖开会决定是否延长罢工，会后拉姆比亚斯说了上述言论。

在罢工中，牧场主和种植者拒绝销售肉牛和谷物，这使得当地谷物市场陷于瘫痪，再次上演了一场在去年曾折磨该国经济的剧烈冲突。

阿根廷是全球主要的玉米、小麦和大豆的供应国。大幅增加大豆产品出口税引发了2008年3月农业经济的停顿，但农民们也不满出口限制和当地市场的价格控制。新的抗议是由总统否决干旱援助法案中的部分内容所激起的。阿根廷农业区域大部分都出现了严重的干旱，对去年谷物的收成造成严重影响，并正威胁着今年的小麦和玉米作物，加重了反政府的情绪。

农业领袖们说他们想要避免像去年爆发的那些剧烈的冲突，去年，在历时四个月的农业行业抗议政府试图提高大豆产品出口税活动后，一场政治危机打击了该国经济。

费尔南德斯总统撤回了最高的税率，但是拒绝修改对大豆征收的35％的出口税。大豆是阿根廷生产的主要作物，几乎只用于出口。（总统）称来自大豆的高额利润应该征税，为社会计划提供资金并推动其它作物在国内消化。

大豆类产品随着旧茬作物向新茬作物的市场转变而走低

市场从供应极度紧张的旧茬作物年份向丰收即将来临的新茬作物年份过渡，各方力量相互角力，现货基差随之从历史高水平突然大幅下滑，在此情形下，大豆类产品期货价格9月3日收低。因豆油价格微幅下降，这与能源市场的情况相符，从而，豆粕成为价格降幅更大的产品。九月大豆期货价格下降10.01美元，结于360.82美元；十一月期价跌去3.49美元，收于345.94美元；而一月期价下降3.22美元，结于347.41美元。九月豆粕期价减少28.77美元，收于355.38美元；十月期价下降8.93美元，结于322.09美元；而十二月豆粕期价收低6.39美元，结于316.03美元。九月豆油期价降低0.88美元，结于751.33美元；十月期价降1.10美元，收于755.08美元；而十二月期价跌去1.10美元，收于763.89美元。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA’s Soybean Condition Rating Jumps to Highest Level Since 1994

Following widespread beneficial rains, USDA’s rating of the soybean crop as of August 23 jumped 3 percentage points in the combined good and excellent categories from the previous week to be the best rated crop for this date since 1994. The crop has been rated well above average for some time and now is in rare territory despite concern about its delayed development. The crop continues to advance on par with last year and about 1 week behind the 5-year average (that includes 3 of the 5 fastest crops on record). The Western Corn Belt is less than 1 week behind normal, with the bigger lags in the Eastern Corn Belt where normal first frost dates are later.

The exceptionally high condition of the soybean crop justifies a yield at least as high as some analysts’ forecast of 2.93 tonnes per hectare. This yield is 0.06725 tonnes per hectare above the 1986-2008 trend, which would be the smallest amount that the final soybean yield has been above trend given a crop rated this high as of this date.

Soybean Crush Declines Less than Expected in July

The Census Bureau reported a July soybean crush of 3.52 million tonnes. This was more than 54,400 tonnes above the market’s expectation, but still reflects a decline of 299,000 tonnes from June. The Census crush for July was 229,000 tonnes, or 7 percent, above the NOPA crush of 3.29 million tonnes. This difference is rather large compared with previous months, but the Census crush was nearly 7 percent higher than the NOPA crush in several months during the second half of the 2003-04 marketing year when the crush was being rationed due to extremely tight soybean supplies, as is the case this year.

The Census Bureau left July soybean oil stocks essentially unchanged at 1.51 million tonnes and revised lower June stocks by 1,360 tonnes to 1.55 million tonnes. Soybean oil used in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production increased to 68,000 tonnes in July from 49,400 tonnes in June. Total usage of fats and oils in methyl ester production was 157,000 tonnes during July, up from 132,000 tonnes during June. Soybean oil’s share of biodiesel’s feedstock increased for the second consecutive month to 43 percent as biodiesel margins continued to improve. While biodiesel production has been increasing, it was just 19 percent of total biodiesel capacity in July.

Soybean meal stocks of 318,000 tonnes were in line with analysts’ expectation despite the larger crush. This implies that domestic use was better than expected in July, but still was down 4 percent from last year and 6 percent below the 5-year average.

Barge Movements Likely To End 2008-09 On Solid Footing

The movement of soybeans and grain heading to the Center Gulf will finish 2008-09 at 34.3 million tonnes if this current pace does not change. If the pace holds, this volume of grain through the key locks will end the year 11 percent ahead of last year’s movement total.

With a relatively narrow ocean freight spread between the Gulf and Pacific Northwest to Japan, and a strong export program this fall, barge volumes to the Gulf are expected to start the year off on a good note and are forecast to total 20.6 million tonnes from September through February, which would be 6.8 million tonnes more than last year’s program. The last time volumes were this large for this time period was 2003-04. One-third of the crop year volume of grain and soybeans moves through the key locks between September 1 and mid-December.

The barge market will display a more typical down-bound soybean and grain program with minimal northbound traffic available this fall, which will provide increased velocity in barge turns. Together with near ideal navigation conditions, grain barge freight rates are not displaying the extreme run-up of previous years.

Latest Strike Over, But Argentine Farm Leaders Plan More

Argentine farmers protesting government agrarian policies will end an eight-day strike as planned this week, but are already organizing a new round of protests, a farm leader said last week. Farmers will “keep up protests by marching in different provinces to show that farmers are worried about the consequences of these failed policies,” said Mario Llambias, president of the Argentine Rural Confederations. Llambias spoke after farm leaders held a meeting to decide whether to extend the strike after calls to keep up the protest from some hard-line farmers.

Ranchers and growers are refusing to sell cattle and grains in a strike that has paralyzed local grain markets and revived a bitter conflict that gripped the country last year.

Argentina is a top global supplier of corn, wheat and soybeans. A tax hike on soy exports triggered the farming standoff in March 2008, but farmers are also disgruntled with export curbs and price controls in local markets. The new protest was sparked by the president’s veto of part of a drought-aid law. A severe drought in much of Argentina’s farm areas badly affected the last grains harvest and is threatening this year’s wheat and maize crop, heightening anti-government sentiment.

Farm leaders say they want to avoid violent clashes like the ones that erupted last year when a political crisis hit the economy after four months of farm protests over a government attempt to raise soya export taxes.

President Fernandez backed down on highest taxes but has refused to trim the 35 percent export levy on soybeans, Argentina’s top crop produced almost only for export, saying that high profit from soybeans should be taxed to fund social programs and to promote other crops for domestic use.

Soy Complex Lower As Market Transitions From Old Crop To New Crop

The soy complex closed lower on September 3 amid a collapse in the spot basis from historically high levels as the market wrestles with the transition from extremely tight old-crop supplies to the arrival of new-crop harvest. Soybean meal was the weaker product as losses in soybean oil were slight — in line with the energy markets. September bean futures were down $10.01, finishing at $360.82; November lost $3.49, closing at $345.94; and January was down $3.22, ending at $347.41. September meal decreased $28.77, closing at $355.38; October was $8.93 lower, finishing at $322.09; and December meal closed down $6.39, ending at $316.03. September soyoil was $0.88 lower, finishing at $751.33; October was down $1.10, closing at $755.08; and December lost $1.10, closing at $763.89.

 

周报图表