美国大豆协会－国际项目每周快报
2009年08月31日
新季大豆作物出口销售继续增加
不断增加的新季作物出口销售量正支撑着一些分析师的观点，即美国大豆出口量在2009－10年度的上半年创下记录。南美大豆供应的缺乏促使人们得出这样的预期，而不断上升的新季作物销售量以及今秋出口码头的出口装运量已经预订一空的传闻也不断证实南美大豆供应短缺的情况。
美国农业部所报告的大豆新季作物出口合同为1100万吨（4.05亿蒲式耳），在截止8月13日那一周的销售报告数量为58.31万吨。在接下来一周，新季作物出口销售超过了一百万吨，因为美国农业部宣布（通过其当日报告体系）8月20日的这一周共有89.6万吨2009－10年度的大豆销往中国 。
除新季大豆作物销售单不断上升外，老茬作物的销售也在增加，到8月13日，尚有330万吨的大豆尚待出运。本销售年度只剩18天，因此，这些绝大部分尚待出运的大豆将转至2009－10销售年度来执行。随着2009－10销售年度的来临，这将进一步提高新季作物出口履约的数量。
预计2009－10年度，美国大豆出口量将集中在前几个月装运，因为今年的秋冬时节没有南美供应的竞争，但在此之后预计南美来年因面积扩大且单产恢复到趋势水平而出现产量复苏。
七月普查局压榨量概述
普查局报告，七月大豆压榨量为352万吨，比市场预期高出近2.72万吨，但仍然比六月份低了近29.9万吨。豆粕库存31.8万吨，虽压榨量增加但仍与各方预期一致。这意味着七月份的国内使用量好于预期，但仍然比去年同期下降4％，也比五年平均数低6％。
国内豆油的使用量符合各方预期，库存减少到151万吨，与上月相比的减少量小于预期。在本销售年度前十个月，非生物柴油的豆油使用量看起来比去年同期减少5％，比五年平均数低10％。
阿根廷农民开始抗议以反对农业援助法案遭部分否决，
一项农业紧急援助法案遭部分否决，引发了又一次新的抗议活动，阿根廷政府愿意与农民开展对话，但不会撤销部分否决的决定，内阁首席部长阿尼拔·费尔南德斯（Anibal Fernandez） 8月26日说。“恕我直言，罢工毫无意义。其目标也明显地让人不可理解，”阿尼拔·费尔南德斯说。
阿根廷一个大豆行业团体说，罢工可能会伤害一些大豆出口商，而豆油和豆粕生产者兴许有充足的大豆库存以安然度过长达一周的罢工。8月27日，农民发起了为期一周的罢工，在全球最大的玉米和大豆供应国之一的国家，冻结了谷物销售。
此次罢工目标是抗议政府的农业政策，再次引发长期存在的争议，在过去两年搅乱了当地的金融市场，并考验了克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯的执政能力。
Coninagro农场团体的领导人卡洛斯·伽莱托（Carlos Garetto）在一个记者招待会上说，罢工表明了“生产者的不安和该省危急的形势，而这还在不断加剧和恶化之中。”
去年农民们封锁了公路并停止了谷物销售达数月之久。农民们批评了议会上周进行的一项表决，该表决延长了总统制定谷物出口税的权利，这是此次冲突的焦点。
上周，在费尔南德斯总统否决了一个农业法律的部分条款时，农民们的愤怒情绪再次被激发起来。该条款免除了布宜诺斯艾利斯省遭受干旱的部分地区种植者和大农场主的作物出口税。该项农业紧急法律也包含对遭受严重干旱农民的补贴和免税条文，在议会获得一致通过，但是政府说误将免税含在该条文内，且也不太可能实施。
季候风较弱毁坏了印度的大豆作物
交易商和行业官员说，由于雨季降水不足，印度新季大豆产量可能减少多达19％，豆粕的出口交易少之又少。
大豆作为印度主要的夏播油料作物，其今年的播种延迟了，原因是六月到九月的雨季降水很晚才出现在印度中部，该地区是世界上最大的食用油买家的主要生产区域。雨季的延迟使得农民们只能在该地区80％的农田种植晚熟品种。
“我们预计产量大约为800到900万吨，”桑迪普·巴约里亚（Sandeep Bajoria）说。他曾是许多行业机构的负责人，包括“中部油业及贸易组织”。与此相比，美国农业部本月早些时候估计的印度产量为1000万吨。（印度估计的产量）意味着将比去年960万吨的产量下降9到19％之间。
老茬作物供应紧张的局面因天气良好得以缓解，大豆类产品涨跌不一
大豆老茬作物供应紧张的状况及现货市场支撑的力量因不会出现危害性气温的天气预报而抵消，大豆类产品期货合约8月27日收市时涨跌互现。玉米带北部区域的气温预计下周前几天会低于正常年份，但是低温还不足以对作物形成危害。尽管如此，在作物将近成熟之前，市场可能都将对任何低温保持敏感。随着来年春季南美开始供应并在2009－10年度下半年逐渐削弱美国的出口，在此之前，该销售年度上半年，美国大豆和大豆产品创记录的出口量预计会抑制价格下滑。九月大豆期货价格上涨8.73美元，结于409.41美元；十一月期价跌去0.18美元，收于365.96美元；而一月期价下降0.09美元，结于366.51美元。九月豆粕期货价格增长17.64美元，收于417.77美元；十月期价降低0.11美元，结于340.06美元；而十二月豆粕期价收低2.20美元，结于326.83美元。九月豆油期货价格降低5.51美元，结于798.29美元；十月期价降5.51美元，收于802.69美元；而十二月跌去5.73美元，收于811.95美元。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
New-Crop Export Sales Of Soybeans Continue To Mount
Mounting new-crop export sales are bolstering some analysts’ contention that U.S. soybean exports will be record large during the first half of 2009-10. This expectation has been driven by the dearth of South American soybean supplies that are being borne out by escalating new-crop sales and anecdotal reports of export port capacity being sold out for this fall.
USDA-reported new-crop soybean export commitments were 11.0 million tonnes (405 million bushels) with 583,100 tonnes reported during week ended August 13. This following week’s new-crop export sales were in excess of 1 million tonnes with USDA announcing (via its daily reporting system) the week of August 20 a total of 896,0000 tonnes of 2009-10 sales to China.
In addition to mounting new-crop soybean sales tallies, old-crop sales are accumulating as well with 3.3 million tonnes outstanding as of August 13. With only 18 days left in the marketing year, the vast majority of these will be carried into the 2009-10 marketing year. This will further boost new-crop export commitments as the 2009-10 marketing year gets underway.
It is expected that 2009-10 U.S. exports will be quite front loaded due to the lack of competing South American supplies this fall and winter, which is expected to be followed by a resurgence in South American production next year because of increased area and rebound in yields to trend levels.
July Census Crush Recap
The Census Bureau reported a July soybean crush of 3.52 million tonnes that was nearly 27,200 tonnes higher than the market had anticipated, but still was down nearly 299,000 tonnes from June. Soybean meal stocks of 318,000 tonnes were in line with expectations despite the larger crush. This implies that domestic use was better than expected in July, but still was down 4 percent from last year and 6 percent below the 5-year average.
Domestic use of soybean oil was in line with expectations as stocks declined less than expected from the previous month to 1.51 million tonnes. Through the first 10 months of the marketing year, non-biodiesel use of soybean oil looks to be off near 5 percent from last year and 10 percent below the 5-year average.
Argentine Farmers Begin Protest In Response To Partial Veto Of Farm Aid Bill
Argentina’s government is open to dialogue with farmers but will not back down on the partial veto of an emergency farm aid bill, which set off renewed agricultural sector protests, Cabinet Chief Anibal Fernandez said on August 26. “With all due respect, the strike makes no sense. The objective isn’t clearly understandable,” Anibal Fernandez said.
A soybean industry group in Argentina said the strike could hit some soybean exporters, though producers of soya oil and meal probably have enough stocks to ride out a week-long strike. Farmers launched a weeklong strike on August 27, freezing grain sales in one of the world’s biggest suppliers of corn and soybeans.
The strike, aimed at protesting the government’s farm policy, revives a long-running dispute that has rattled local financial markets and tested President Cristina Fernandez over the past two years.
Carlos Garetto, leader of the Coninagro farm group, told a news conference that the strike expressed “producers’ unrest and the critical situation in the provinces, which is growing and worsening.”
Farmers, who blocked highways and halted grains sales for months last year, have criticized a congressional vote last week that extended the president’s powers to set grain export taxes, which are at the center of the conflict.
The farmers ire was raised again last week when President Fernandez vetoed part of a farming law that exempted growers and ranchers from paying the export levies in drought-hit parts of Buenos Aires province. The emergency farm law, which also contained subsidies and tax breaks for farmers hit by a severe drought, was passed unanimously in Congress, but the government said the exemption was included by mistake and was impossible to implement.
Weak Monsoon Devastates India’s Soybean Crop
India’s soybean output may drop as much as 19 percent in the new season following failed monsoon rains, reducing soymeal export deals to a trickle, traders and industry officials said.
The planting of soybeans, India’s main summer-sown oilseed crop, was delayed this year as the June to September monsoon rains arrived late in central India, the main producing region in the world’s top edible oils buyer. The delay encouraged farmers to sow late-maturing varieties across 80 percent of the area.
“We expect about 8 million to 9 million tonnes output,” said Sandeep Bajoria, former head of many trade bodies including the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade. This compares with the USDA’s estimate of 10 million tonnes earlier this month. That amounts to between a 9 and 19 percent decline from last year’s 9.6 million tonnes produced.
Soy Complex Mixed As Tight Old Crop Supplies Were Offset By Good Weather
The soy complex closed mixed on August 27 as tight old-crop soybean supplies and strength in the cash market bolstered were countered by a lack of threatening temperatures in the forecast. Temperatures in the northern portion of the Corn Belt are expected to be below normal through the early portion of the week, but not cold enough to pose a threat to the crop. Nevertheless, the market likely will remain sensitive to any threat of cold temperatures until the crop is close to maturity. Record-large U.S. exports of soybeans and products during the first half of the marketing year are expected to limit the downside for prices until South American supplies become available next spring and undermine U.S. exports during the second half of 2009-10. September bean futures were up $8.73, finishing at $409.41; November lost $0.18, closing at $365.96; and January was down $0.09, ending at $366.51. September meal increased $17.64, closing at $417.77; October was $0.11 lower, finishing at $340.06; and December meal closed down $2.20, ending at $326.83. September soyoil was $5.51 lower, finishing at $798.29; October was down $5.51, closing at $802.69; and December lost $5.73, closing at $811.95.
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