美国大豆协会－国际项目每周快报
2009年08月17日
美国农业部报告概述
8月12日美国农业部全国农业统计局发布了其第一份2009年美国大田作物产量预估报告和小品种谷物作物最新报告。美国农业部全球农产品供求预测报告包含了这些作物产量的意见，以及当前全球作物产量、需求和贸易的变化情况。
美国农业部基于调查的首份美国大豆作物8,710万吨的预测数字连续第九年低于分析人士预测数的平均值。美国农业部把播种面积调高至9,710万公顷，收获面积调高到8,900万公顷，并把单产定在每公顷2.8公吨，这几乎比七月份平衡表上的每公顷单产低了0.0672吨。美国农业部通过出口量和压榨量各减少27.2万吨来部分抵消与上个月相比减少的166万吨产量，导致2009－10年度的结转库存为570万吨，比上个月的报告减少了109万吨。美国农业部2008－09年度的结转库存仍然保持在299万吨，因为它在出口量和压榨量上各增加了13.6万吨，这个增量由残值量的减少来抵消。
虽然美国农业部的作物产量低于市场预期，但是新作物的结转库存与行业的预测一致。低于预测的单产可能会引起人们的置疑，最终单产会高于预测水平。
美国农业部除了将阿根廷2009－10年度大豆调高30万吨、豆粕出口量调高36万吨之外，对南美的其它数据没有作任何改动。南美2010年的收获预测没有改变，分别为巴西6,000万吨、阿根廷5,100万吨。中国的作物产量预计为1,540万吨，而上个月则为1,560万吨，且进口量预测没有变化，仍为3,810万吨，低于2008－09年度的3,910万吨。
进口商青睐美国大豆
随着美国大豆价格因创纪录的作物产量预测而降低至主要竞争者巴西的价格，进口商继续偏向采购美国大豆。阿根廷作为世界第三大出口国遭受了旱灾，也有人说一些进口商将他们的采购单从价格一直上涨的巴西转向了美国。
“我们的价格便宜，”价格期货集团的副总裁杰克·斯考维尔告诉路透社说。“显然，美国的大豆比其它任何地方都便宜。这足以应付（与巴西的）任何运费（差价）。”
美国农业部上周说，中国又定购了11万吨美国大豆，在9月1日开始的新销售年度中交货。
很多分析认识将人们对美国大豆的偏爱归因于南美的天气。阿根廷和巴西在过去的这个种植季节所经历的干旱，使得只有很少的作物供出口商销售。而且，大豆价格走高使得很多南美的农民在收获前预售了比常年更多的作物，这使得他们在过去的数周里没有多少大豆可供于出口市场。
与此同时，美国中西部加工企业对大豆需求较弱，这也有助于出口量的增长。其部分原因是生物柴油生产商对豆油的需求很弱。
预计现在一直到2010年2月份美国谷物运输业将处理大量的大豆和谷物出口发货量
九月/十一月和十二月/二月的大豆和谷物出口合起来预计将达到7,170万吨，仅次于2007－08年度8,100万吨的记录水平。如果果真如此，本销售年度的上半年每周平均出口量需要达到276万吨。去年上半年的周出口量平均为235万吨。大豆出口预计为2,880万吨，每周差不多有112万吨。
根据历史数据，分析人士相信九月至二月这样大量的装运是完全可行的。2007－08年度的出口检验数基于每月四周的每周平均数超过了327万吨。从港口范围来看，整个南湾地区的出口码头每周可以轻而易举地处理163万吨到191万吨谷物，还曾偶尔超过204万吨的出运量。在西北太平洋港口，出口码头近几年来已经提高了每周的谷物处理量，由1990年代末2000年代初的40.8～54.4万吨增加到2007年和2008年的68～81.6万吨。在创纪录的2007－08年度，整个南湾港口的周出口检验数量平均为184万吨，而西北太平洋港口为69.1万吨，两者加起来，代表了该时期所有谷物和大豆出运量的84％。
预计中国的大豆需求和进口保持较高水平
国家发改委经贸司副司长刘晓楠（音译）说，中国的大豆进口量预计今年将升至4,000万吨，且中国的需求和大豆的进口将保持长期增长。
十年前，中国的大豆年进口量不到300万吨，占世界大豆进口量还不到8％。2008年大豆进口量达到3,745万吨，比上年增长21.5％，占世界（进口贸易）总量的一半。
目前没有设置配额来限制大豆进口到中国，而只是对进口征收3％的关税。
因即将除牌的八月期货价格暴跌，大豆类商品期货价格走低
即将除牌的八月大豆期货合约因增加了227张合约交割量，这个数量占未平仓合约数的一半，从而价格暴跌。8月13日收市时，大豆类商品期货价格普遍收低。新季大豆期货合约的走势受两个因素的影响――作物的生长状况和不太明朗的需求前景。作物产量和需求量可能会大于美国农业部所描述的数量，也可能大于市场交易所依据的数量。八月大豆期货价格下降10.56美元，结果于436.24美元；九月跌去10.01美元，收于391.41美元；而十一月下滑9.28美元，收报374.32美元。八月豆粕价格上涨3.2美元，收于430.89美元；九月降低5.07美元，收报370.26美元；而十月则收低6.28美元，结果于352.71美元。八月豆油价格降低20.50美元，结于827.61美元；九月下降20.72美元，收于829.81美元；而十月跌去20.72美元，收于834.44美元。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA Report Recap
USDA’s NASS on August 12 released its first estimates of 2009 U.S. row crop production and its updates of small grain production. USDA’s WASDE report incorporates those crop views as well as ongoing global crop production, demand and trade indications.
USDA’s first survey-based estimate of the U.S. soybean crop of 87.1 million tonnes, below the average analyst estimate for the ninth consecutive year. USDA revised planted area up 97,100 hectares and harvested area up 89,000 hectares and pegged the yield at 2.80 tonnes per hectare, nearly 0.0672 tonnes per hectare below the July balance sheet yield. USDA offset part of the 1.66 million tonne decline in production from last month with reductions of 272,000 tonnes each in exports and the crush, resulting in a 2009-10 carryout of 5.7 million tonnes that is down 1.09 million tonnes from last month. USDA’s 2008-09 carryout remains at 2.99 million tonnes as USDA added 136,000 tonnes each to exports and the crush, which were offset by a reduction in residual use.
Although USDA’s crop was smaller than the market was looking for, the new-crop carryout was in line with trade expectations. The smaller-than-expected yield may call into question expectations for a higher eventual yield.
USDA did not make any changes in South America except for a 300,000 tonne increase in Argentine 2009-10 soybean exports and a 360,000 tonne increase in Argentine 2009-10 soybean meal exports. South American 2010 harvest prospects were not changed at 60 million tonnes and 51 million tonnes respectively for Brazil and Argentina. China’s crop was projected at 15.4 million tonnes versus 15.6 million tonnes last month and forecast imports were not changed at 38.1 million tonnes down from 39.1 million tonnes in 2008-09.
Importers Favoring U.S. Soybeans
Importers are continuing to favor U.S. soybeans as prices dip below those of main competitor Brazil because of expectations of a record crop. With Argentina, the world’s third largest exporter, hit by drought, there has also been talk of some importers switching their purchases to the United States from Brazil, where prices have been rising.
“We are the cheap ones,” Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group told Reuters. “Apparently, beans in the U.S. are cheaper than anywhere else. That is enough to take care of any freight (difference with Brazil).”
USDA said last week that China booked another 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery during the new marketing year, which starts on September 1.
Many analysts are attributing the favoritism of U.S. soybeans to the weather in South America. The drought that Argentina and Brazil experienced this past growing season has left exporter with very little crop to sell. Also, high prices for soybeans caused many South American farmers to book a larger-than-usual amount of sales of their supplies before harvest, leaving them with little to provide to the export market during the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, light demand for soybeans from processors around the Midwestern United States also is helping exports receive a boost. This is due in part to weak soyoil demand from biodiesel makers.
U.S. Shipping Expected To Handle Large Soybean And Grain Export Volume Through February 2010
Soybean and grain exports for September/November and December/February combined are forecast to at 71.7 million tonnes, second only to record volume in 2007-08 that totaled 81 million tonnes. If realized, weekly exports will need to average 2.76 million tonnes for the first half of the marketing year. Last year exports averaged 2.35 million tonnes during the first half. Soybean exports are forecast at 28.8 million tonnes or nearly 1.12 million tonnes weekly.
Based on history, analysts believe a shipping program this large during September-February is wholly feasible. Export inspections during 2007-08 averaged s on a weekly basis with four weeks exceeding 3.27 million tonnes. By port range, elevators across the Gulf can readily handle 1.63 million to 1.91 million tonnes weekly, with rare occurrences exceeding 2.04 million tonnes. In the PNW, elevators have handled increased volumes on a weekly basis in recent years, increasing from 408,000 to 544,000 tonnes during late 1990s and early 2000s to 680,000 to 816,000 tonnes 2007 and 2008. During the record 2007-08 year, weekly export inspections across the Gulf averaged 1.84 million tonnes and the PNW 691,000 tonnes, which when combined, represented 84 percent of all grain and soybean elevation during that time period.
China Expects Soybean Demand And Imports To Remain High
China’s soybean imports are expected to rise to about 40 million tonnes this year, and China’s demand and import of soybean will keep growing in a long term, said Liu Xiaonan, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission’s economic and trade department.
Ten years ago, China’s annual soybean imports were less than 3 million tonnes, accounting for less than 8 percent of world soybean imports. In 2008, soybean imports reached 37.45 million tonnes, up 21.5 percent year-on-year and standing as half of the world’s total.
No quotas are currently erected to prevent soybean imports from entering China, instead the imports are protected by a 3 percent tariff.
Soy Complex Lower As Expiring August Contract Collapses
The soy complex closed lower on August 13 as the expiring August soybean contract collapsed amid increased deliveries of 227 contracts that represented nearly one-half of open interest. Direction for new-crop futures is being influenced by 2 factors – the development of the crop and looming demand prospects. The crop and demand could be bigger than USDA has portrayed and bigger than the market is currently trading. August bean futures were down $10.56, finishing at $436.24; September lost $10.01, closing at $391.41; and November was down $9.28, ending at $374.32. August meal increased $3.2-, closing at $430.89; September was $5.07 lower, finishing at $370.26; and October meal closed down $6.28, ending at $352.71. August soyoil was $20.50 lower, finishing at $827.61; September was down $20.72, closing at $829.81; and October lost $20.72, closing at $834.44.
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