US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年８月３日）

南美库存量的迅速减少意味着2009-10年度美国大豆出口量的增加

巴西在大豆出口上一直保持着快速的节奏。7月份的装运量有望达到360万吨，与往年的同月相比，出口量已经连续第5个月创纪录。两个主要原因造成了巴西出口量的增加，一个是由于阿根廷作物歉收而造成出口供应量的减少，另一个是由于大豆市场逆市价差较大。

巴西大豆大量的出口以及阿根廷大豆收成较少，大大减少了南美用来压榨的大豆供应量以及9月1日以后的出口量。这将使美国在2009-10市场年度的上半年成为世界上占统治地位的大豆供应者。由于巴西大豆出口将延续其创记录的进度，预计分析家们会将巴西2009－10年度（2月/1月）的消耗量更多地从其下半年度的压榨消耗转到7月到9月的出口消耗方面。2009年9月1日，南美大豆库存预计为3940万吨，比去年同期低了1340万吨，是2004年以来的最低水平。

与此同时，中国大豆的进口量预计将在2009-10年度下降，除非中国继续增加其大豆储备。

 

普查局6月份压榨量概述

普查局将6月底的库存量略微上调到155万吨，从而证实豆油库存已经升至2008年1月以来的最高水平。用于生产甲酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油用量从五月的3.76万吨增长为6月的4.94万吨。然而，由于动物脂肪的用量从5月的6.94万吨降为6月的4.94万吨，导致用于生产生物柴油的动植物油的用量下降，从5月的13.5万吨降为6月的12.1万吨。由于利润有所改善，大豆油在生物柴油生产原料的份额有所反弹，从5月份较低的28%升至6月的41%。生物柴油的产能利用率下降到一个15%的新低。

 

生物质作物援助计划给农场主提供了增收的机会

根据农业部农场局提出的一项新的计划，为能源生产商提供生物质材料的农场主可以增加一倍的收入。如果生物质的生产者或经营实体给指定的生物质能源转换厂提供用于生产热力、电力、生物基产品或生物柴油的合格材料，那么生物质作物援助计划就可以向这些生产者或经营实体提供经济支持。据该机构称，援助将有助于降低与原料发运有关的收集、收割、储存和运输的成本。

生产者或经营实体将生物质运送到指定生物质能源转化厂，就可按照生物质材料价值获得等值的财政支持，每干基吨最高可得45美元。例如，如果能源转换厂付给生产者每干基吨生物产品30美元，那么生产者将可以获得该计划下每干基吨30美元的相关成本的款项。

生产者将可以获得长达两年的付款支持。

该机构表示，此项计划预计将通过使用新一代的清洁且可持续的生物质能源，有益于生产者、生物质行业、普通公众和环境。

 

巴西大豆压榨商对采购亚马逊河流域产品的禁令延期

巴西的大豆压榨商对从亚马逊流域森林砍伐区购买大豆的禁令延期一年。此禁令的设立是为了应对来自于保护世界最大热带雨林的活动组织以及买家的压力，适用于2006年10月以后种植的大豆。现在，该计划将以前并不包括在内的100公顷以下的农田资产也要进行监控。

在庆祝该项目三周年的活动上，国家环境部长卡洛斯·明茨说：“大豆已经不再是破坏亚马逊流域的一个相关因素了。” 他补充说，亚马逊森林砍伐的数字仍然是“不能接受的”。  

该计划联合了所有在巴西经营的主要谷物加工商，例如ADM、嘉吉、路易·达孚和邦基。

 

中国： 7月大豆进口量可能创历史新高

据商务部7月29日发出一份报告称，中国7月份的大豆进口量可能会创下新高达到482万吨。中国6月份进口了471万吨大豆，与去年6月相比增长了31%，为单月最高记录量。根据商务部网站发布的报告指出，预计7月份植物油进口量也会提高。此项预估是根据7月1号至15号期间进口商的报告做出的。通常预测量会低于实际进口量，因为预测量不包括所有批量的货物。

据有关新闻报告，由于拍卖底价定得太高，中国政府7月29日再次没能从库存中销售出大豆。政府计划向北方和东北主要产区出售50.27万吨大豆，但过高的价格抑制了投标的兴趣。其结果符合市场预期，并有助于支撑大豆期货的价格。只要政府无法售出其大豆，当地的大豆供应就将持续吃紧。上周，在另一拍卖活动上中国政府仍未能售出任何大豆。

 

由于美国农业部宣布中国购买了美国大豆，大豆类产品期价上升

美国农业部通过其每日报告系统宣布，中国已经购买了192万吨的美国大豆，其中180万吨在2009-10市场年度装运，因此，大豆类产品在7月30日收盘时价格上升。此外，由于市场越来越意识到对美国大豆新作物的强大需求，以及因大部分玉米带区域出现较为干燥的情况使得作物前景不那么乐观，导致价格仍然很高。 8月份大豆期货价格上涨了26美元，收于414.56美元; 9月上涨23.88美元，收于378.09美元;11月上涨20.21美元，为356.78美元。 8月份豆粕上涨19.07美元，收于392.2美元; 9月上涨20.72美元，收于358.58美元;10月豆粕上涨17.42美元，收于333.78美元。 8月豆油上涨41.01美元，收于770.07美元; 9月上涨41.23美元，收于774.48美元;10月上涨了41.45美元，收于778.22美元。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Rapid Depletion Of South American Stocks Points To Large 2009-10 U.S. Soy Exports

Brazil continues to export soybeans at a brisk pace. July shipments are on track to reach 3.6 million tonnes, marking the fifth consecutive month that exports have been record large compared with the same month in previous years. The two main reasons for Brazil’s record export pace are the shortfall in Argentina’s exportable supplies due to its crop shortfall, and the steep inverse in the soybean market.

Brazil’s huge soybean exports and Argentina’s small crop are significantly reducing the supply of South American soybeans available to crush or export after September 1. This will leave the United States as the world’s dominant supplier of soybeans during the first half of the 2009-10 marketing year. Due to the continuation of its record soybean export pace, analysts are expected to shifted more of Brazil’s projected 2009-10 (Feb./Jan.) soybean disappearance to exports for July through September away from the crush during the second half of its marketing year. September 1, 2009, South American soybean stocks are now seen at 39.4 million tonnes, down 13.4 million tonnes from last year and the lowest since 2004.

Meanwhile, China’s soybean imports are expected to decline in 2009-10 unless it continues to add to its soybean reserves.

June Census Crush Recap

The Census Bureau confirmed that soybean oil stocks have risen to the highest level since January 2008, revising end-of-June stocks up slightly to 1.55 million tonnes. Soybean oil use in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production increased from 37,600 tonnes during May to 49,400 tonnes in June. However, total fats and oils used in biodiesel production declined from a downwardly revised 135,000 tonnes in May to 121,000 tonnes in June as animal fat usage fell from an estimated 69,400 tonnes in May to 49,400 tonnes in June. Soybean oil’s share of biodiesel feedstock rebounded from a low of 28 percent in May to 41 percent in June as margins for soybean oil based biodiesel improved. Biodiesel production capacity utilization declined slightly to a new low of 15 percent.

Biomass Crop Assistance Program Provides Farmers With Income Opportunities

Farmers who provide biomass material to energy conversion facilities could double their income through a new program from the Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. The Biomass Crop Assistance Program provides financial assistance to producers or entities that deliver eligible material to designated biomass conversion facilities for use as heat, power, bio-based products or biofuels. Assistance will be for the collection, harvesting, storage and transportation costs associated with the delivery of materials, according to the agency.

Producers or entities will be eligible for as much as a dollar-for-dollar match up to $45 per dry ton for the value of the biomass that is delivered to a designated biomass conversion facility. For example, if the conversion facility pays a producer $30 per dry ton for the biomass, the producer would be eligible for a program payment of $30 per dry ton for the associated costs.

Producers will be eligible for up to two years’ worth of payments.

The agency said the program is expected to benefit producers, the biomass industry, the general public and the environment through generation of clean and sustainable biomass energy.

Brazilian Soybean Crushers Extend Ban On Purchasing Product From Amazon Basin

Soybean crushers in Brazil have extended their ban on purchasing soybeans from recently deforested areas of the Amazon basin for another year. The moratorium, which was set up as a response to pressure from activist groups and buyers to preserve the world’s largest rainforest, applies to soybeans planted after October 2006. The initiative will now include the monitoring of properties with less than 100 hectares, which so far not been a part of the initiative.

“Soy is not a relevant factor in Amazon destruction anymore,” said Carlos Minc, the country’s environment minister, during an event to celebrate the project’s third anniversary but he added that Amazon deforestation figures were still “unacceptable.”

The initiative joins all major grain processors with operations in Brazil, such as ADM, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Bunge.

China: July Soybean Imports Likely A Record High

China’s soybean imports in July will likely set a new record high of 4.82 million tonnes, according to a report by the Ministry of Commerce issued July 29. China imported 4.71 million tons of soybeans in June, up 31 percent compared with last June – and the highest recorded volume for a single month.  The ministry expects July vegetable oil imports to also be higher on month, according to the report posted on the ministry’s Web site.  The estimate was based on importers’ reports during the July 1-July 15 period. The forecast is usually lower than actual imports as it doesn’t include all cargoes.

In related news, China’s government failed to sell soybeans from its reserves again on July 29, as the base auction price was set too high. The government planned to sell 502,700 tonnes of soybeans to north and northeast major producing areas, but high prices curbed bidding interest. The result is in line with market expectations and helped support soybean futures, as local soybean supply will remain tight as long as the government is unable to release its soybeans. Last week, the government failed to sell any soybeans in another auction.

Soy Complex Higher As USDA Announces Purchases Of U.S. Soybeans By China

The soy complex closed higher on July 30 as USDA announced via its daily reporting system that China had bought 1.92 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, 1.8 million tonnes of which were for 2009-10 marketing year shipment. Prices also are being supported by the market becoming more cognizant of the robust new-crop demand for U.S. soybeans and perhaps less optimism about crop prospects with drier conditions emerging in much of the Corn Belt.  August bean futures were up $26.00, finishing at $414.56; September gained $23.88, closing at $378.09; and November was up $20.21, ending at $356.78. August meal increased $19.07, closing at $392.20; September was $20.72 higher, finishing at $358.58; and October meal closed up $17.42, ending at $333.78. August soyoil was $41.01 higher, finishing at $770.07; September was up $41.23, closing at $774.48; and October gained $41.45, closing at $778.22.

周报图表