美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年７月２７日）
美国新茬大豆销售量预示着２００９－２０１０年度出口量将达到极高水平
最近的出口销售报告表明，新茬大豆对中国的销售量目前已达３２９万吨，比前些年中国代表团访美时的礼仪性订购量还大，这一数量已占新茬大豆早期销售量的很大一部分。往年的礼仪性订购并不一定真正代表中国对美国大豆的实际进口，但今年稳定的订购据信将意味着２００９－２０１０年度美国对中国的出口量将达到极高水平。定于２００９－２０１０年度交付的美国大豆签约出口量也达到创纪录的６１７万吨，其中２２９万吨的出口目的地尚不清楚，一部分可能销往中国。由于南美供应不足，今年秋冬季节美国将成为世界上占主导地位的大豆供应国，据此美国农业部预计２００９－２０１０年度美国大豆出口量将达到３４７０万吨。
《油世界》预计美国大豆出口量将大幅上升
总部位于汉堡的油料行业专刊《油世界》本周预计，由于竞争对手南美各产豆国的大豆库存较低，未来数月美国大豆出口量可能会大幅上升。“美国大豆出口量将从２００９年９月底开始呈现极大幅度的上升，”该刊物说。“首要原因在于，南美供应量的不足将使全球进口需求逐渐转向美国。”《油世界》说，由于阿根廷和巴西近期的大量出口导致大豆库存处于极低水平，７、８月份这两个国家的大豆出口量将会下降。“到今年１０月和１１月，全球对美国大豆及大豆类产品的进口需求（将）有可能超过美国的实际出口能力，”《油世界》说。
大豆种植者对缴款公投兴趣冷淡
根据联邦法律的规定，美国农业部每５年应进行一次针对豆农的民意调查，以判断豆农是否希望农业部就大豆缴款计划开展一次全面公投。豆农显然满足于现有的计划，因为全国５８９１８０户豆农中只有７５９户近期向美国农业部表示公投是件好事。美国农业部开展缴款公投的前提条件是，必须由１０％的合格豆农提出请求。根据缴款计划，农户应将得到的每蒲式耳价格的０．５％支付给缴款体系。所缴款项将用于大豆及大豆产品的研究、宣传及促销。
美国和加拿大指责欧盟推迟转基因审批流程
美国和加拿大上周对欧盟连续推迟审批转基因产品在欧洲的销售提出批评。国家事务局报道说，尽管７月１５日达成的协议结束了他们在世贸组织有关欧洲推迟审批的争议，但加拿大在世贸组织争端解决机构的一次会议上说，欧盟成员国对转基因产品栽培和销售的限制“依然令人担忧。”
美国官员在争端解决机构的这次会议上说，转基因产品中待审批申请的数量已从２００３年（当年美国就欧盟的限制措施向世贸组织提出争议解决请求）的约２５项上升到目前的约５０项。
环保署计划对草甘膦的登记情况进行核查
环保署将对广泛使用的农用及家用除草剂的登记情况进行核查，并就其在核查期间拟将解决的卫生与环境问题征求公众意见。草甘膦是一种广谱内吸除草剂，可用于家用和农用目的，针对的植物包括杂草、莎草、阔叶草及木本植物。草甘膦是Pondmaster、Rodeo、Roundup等产品中的一种有效成份。国家事务局表示，环保署定期审核杀虫剂的登记情况，以确保每种农药都能发挥其应有的功效，同时不对人体健康及环境造成不合理的负面影响。
环保署在一份联邦注册通知中说，草甘膦“与口腔、皮肤、呼吸道发生接触后表现出的毒性较低，”另外根据动物试验结果，草甘膦属于E组农药，也就是说，其“对人类不具致癌性。”但是，环保署在这份有关人类健康的文件中说，“由于作为新型家用产品而申请登记的数量”高于以前的预估，因此需要重新进行一次针对家用目的的接触性风险评估。
国会监管委员会告诫说，针对农场领域的信贷有可能紧缩
国会监管专门小组在一份报告中说，农业领域的表现强于其它经济领域，但同时告诫说，农场可能会面临日趋紧张的信贷状况。报告称，由于未获得足够数据，因此无法就商业性农业信贷市场以及为取代政府援助下金融机构的止赎权而采取的贷款结构重组下结论，不过在可供信贷日趋紧张、农业贷款违约及坏账不断增加的情况下，“其它经济领域所受到的压力可能会逐渐在农业领域中显现。” 国会监管专门小组表示，如果农业经济领域的这一不利趋势持续下去，那么作为一项解决方案，可以考虑针对目标资产救济计划项下领取补助的银行修订有关农业贷款的强制性规定。但商业银行仅持有农业债务总额的４５．４％，而且目标资产救济计划项下领取补助的银行也仅持有农业不动产银行贷款中商业银行部分的２７．５％及农业贷款总额的１０％。国会监管专门小组提请国会制定一项有关农业贷款执行报告的规定。
国会监管专门小组由国会创立于２００８年１０月，当时国会还授权美国财政部拨款７亿美元以稳定美国经济。国会监管专门小组的使命是“审核金融市场和监管体系现状”、举办听证会、审核官方数据、起草有关财政部和金融机构举措及其经济效果的报告。
由于出口强劲且中国储备大豆拍卖未果，大豆类产品期价上升
由于出口强劲且有消息说中国未能在国内市场拍卖出任何储备大豆，因此大豆类产品在７月２３日收盘时价格上升。如果天气状况保持有利，市场会在紧张的老茬大豆期末库存与２００９年可观的收成前景之间权衡利弊，因此未来两三个月大豆及豆粕期价有可能保持波动。８月份大豆期货价格上升＄１．８４为＄３７６．０７，９月份上升＄６．０６为＄３５３．２９，１１月份上升＄８．８２为３４２．４５；８月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２．２０为＄３５６．０４，９月份上升＄６．６１为＄３３１．７９，１０月份上升＄１０．５８为＄３１６．６９；８月份豆油期货价格上升３．３１为＄７６４．３３，９月份上升＄３．０９为＄７６７．８６，１０月份上升＄３．５３为＄７７１．８３。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
New-Crop Sales Point To Huge 2009-10 U.S. Soybean Exports
Recent Export Sales reports indicated that new-crop sales to China of 3.29 million tonnes now are even larger than in years when ceremonial purchases of U.S. soybeans by a Chinese delegation visiting the United States have accounted for a large share of early new-crop sales. Those ceremonial sales have not necessarily been a good predictor of China’s actual imports of U.S. soybeans, but this year’s steady buying is presumed to indicate that U.S. exports to China will be quite large in 2009-10. Total U.S. soybean export commitments for 2009-10 delivery also are record large at 6.17 million tonnes and include 2.29 million tonnes to unknown destinations, a portion of which likely is to China. USDA is forecasting 2009-10 soybean exports at 34.7 million tonnes, based on a lack of South American supplies that will leave the United States as the world’s dominant supplier of soybeans this fall and winter.
Oil World Predicts Surge In U.S. Soybean Exports
U.S. soybean exports are likely to rise strongly in coming months largely because of low stocks in rival South American suppliers, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast this week. “U.S. exports of soybeans will increase very sharply from end-September 2009 onwards,” it said. “This is due first of all to the shortfall in South America which will increasingly swing world import demand to U.S. origin.” Unusually low soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil following recent heavy export sales will cut the countries’ soybean exports in July and August, it said. “It is possible that in October and November 2009, world import requirements of U.S. soybeans and products (will) exceed what the U.S. can physically export,” says Oil World.
Soybean Growers Show Little Interest in Checkoff Referendum
Federal law requires USDA to poll soybean farmers every five years to determine whether they want the department to conduct a full-fledged referendum on the soybean checkoff program. Farmers evidently are satisfied with the program because only 759 of the nation’s 589,180 soybean growers recently told USDA they thought a referendum would be a good thing. For the department to go ahead with a checkoff referendum, 10 percent of the eligible farmers would have had to petition for the action. Under the program, farmers pay one-half of 1 percent of the price per bushel they receive into the checkoff system. That money is then used for research, education and promotion of soybeans and soybean products.
United States And Canada Condemn Delays In EU GMO Approval Procedures
The United States and Canada both criticized the EU last week for continued delays in the approval and marketing of biotech products in Europe. The Bureau of National Affairs reports that despite reaching an agreement July 15 ending their WTO dispute over the EU delays, Canada told a meeting of the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) that it “continues to be concerned” about EU member state restrictions on the cultivation and marketing of biotech products.
U.S. officials told the DSB meeting that the backlog of pending applications for approval of biotech products has grown from around 25 products in 2003 — when the United States initiated its own WTO dispute case against the EU restrictions — to approximately 50 today.
EPA Plans to Review Glyphosate Registration
EPA will review the registration of glyphosate, a widely used agricultural and residential herbicide, and invited public comment on the health and environmental issues it will address during the review process. Glyphosate is a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide used for residential and agriculture applications on plants including grasses, sedges, broad-leaved weeds, and woody plants. It is an active ingredient in products such as Pondmaster, Rodeo and Roundup. According to the Bureau of National Affairs, EPA periodically reviews pesticide registrations to ensure that each chemical can perform its intended function without unreasonable adverse effects on human health or the environment.
In a Federal Register notice, EPA said that glyphosate “is of low toxicity following oral, dermal and inhalation exposure,” and also is ranked as a Group E chemical, meaning that it exhibits “evidence of non-carcinogenicity for humans,” based on animal studies. However, the EPA human health document said that a new residential exposure risk assessment is needed “due to the registration of a new residential-use product” that is applied at a higher rate than previously assessed.
Congressional Panel Warns Of Possible Tightening Of Credit For Farm Sector
The agricultural sector is doing better than the rest of the economy but warned that farms might face tightening credit, according to a report by the Congressional Oversight Panel. Saying it did not get enough data to reach conclusions about commercial farm credit markets and the use of loan restructuring in lieu of foreclosure by financial institutions receiving government assistance, the panel report says “the stresses of the rest of the economy may be catching up to the farm sector,” with credit availability tightening and farm loan delinquencies and charge-offs rising. If the negative trends in the farm economy continue, one option would be to make modifications on farm loans mandatory for banks receiving Targeted Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds, the panel said. But commercial banks hold only 45.4 percent of overall farm debt, and TARP recipient banks hold only 27.5 percent of the commercial bank portion of total farm real estate bank loans and 10 percent of all farm debt. The panel called on Congress to create a farm-loan performance reporting requirement.
The Congressional Oversight Panel was created by Congress in October 2008 when it also provided the U.S. Treasury with the authority to spend $700 million to stabilize the U.S. economy. The mission of the COP is to “review the current state of financial markets and the regulatory system,” and to hold hearings, review official data, and write reports on actions taken by Treasury and financial institutions and their effect on the economy.
Soy Complex Higher On Strong Exports And Chinese Reserve Soybean Auction Failure
The soy complex closed lower on July 23 reflecting strong export sales and news that China was not able to auction any reserve soybeans in the domestic market. Soybean and meal futures likely will remain volatile over the next couple of months as the market wrestles between a tight old-crop carryout and prospects for a large 2009 crop if the weather remains favorable. August bean futures were up $1.84, finishing at $376.07; September gained $6.06, closing at $353.29; and November was up $8.82, ending at $342.45. August meal increased $2.20, closing at $356.04; September was $6.61 higher, finishing at $331.79; and October meal closed up $10.58, ending at $316.69. August soyoil was $3.31 higher, finishing at $764.33; September was up $3.09, closing at $767.86; and October gained $3.53, closing at $771.83.
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