美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年７月６日）
读者提示：由于美国独立日期间员工放假，下周《每周快报》将暂停发行，
７月１７日恢复发行。
美国农业部公布最新播种面积和库存报告
６月３０日美国农业部发布了有关美国春播作物的６月份指导意见，另外还对美国谷物和大豆截至６月１日的现有库存进行了评估。对播种面积的评估包含了可供进一步深入核查播种面积的勘测数据和实地测量数据，这是美国农业部３月份进行播种意向调查以来的首次全面核查。
２００９－２０１０年度的大豆预估面积在３月份的基础上上调５９．１万公顷，达到３１４０万公顷，但仍比市场预期低大约２４．３万公顷。２００９－２０１０年度的大豆预估产量为８８７０万吨，比上一年度高８３３万吨。美国农业部报告说，本年度９１％的豆田播种了转基因大豆，上一年度的比例为９２％。由于老茬大豆期末延期库存量非常有限，且２００９－２０１０年度需求预计将呈强劲态势，因此大豆市场目前仍面临收益的不确定性及随后的潜在风险。
普查局公布５月份压榨报告及动植物油报告
普查局公布的５月份压榨数字低得令人吃惊，仅为３９８万吨，比市场参照美国油籽加工者协会压榨数字所做的预测低近８．１６万吨。４月份的压榨量也略有下调。普查局５月份的压榨数字还表明，尽管日压榨率比前两个月略有上升，但５月份的压榨量仅比美国油籽加工者协会公布的数字高１０．６万吨，仅相当于后者的１０２．８％。这两项比值均创２００３年夏季以来的最低水平。５月份普查压榨数字之所以显得异常小，原因还在于５月份豆粕和豆油的理论产出率不同寻常地高。
普查局的数字显示，豆粕和豆油产量小于预计，而豆粕和豆油库存则大于预计，这表明，在美国油籽加工者协会的报告公布后，国内消费量的提升幅度小于之前的预计。由于５月份最后一天为周末，原本预计豆粕库存将达到较高水平，但实际公布的数字竟然比预期高出５３．９万吨，几乎创下销售年度的最高纪录。国内理论使用量比去年及５年来平均水平低６％，不过当６月份消费量进一步接近正常水平时，消费量的提升可能会使局面得到改观。５月底豆油库存达到１４５万吨，创销售年度的新高，表明５月份的国内使用量比去年同期低１０％，比５年来平均水平低８％。
普查局还公布了２００８年动植物油年度总结报告。２００８年各月份用于生产甲酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的动植物油预估量均有所上调，其中不少月份的上调幅度十分明显。经过上调，普查局对生物柴油行业２００７－２００８销售年度动植物油总用量的预测上升了２６．７万吨。２００７－２００８年度生物柴油中豆油的预估用量上调１２．４万吨至１４７万吨，２００８－２００９年度一季度上调２．８６万吨。
美国农业部称：美国农民青睐转基因作物
美国农业部最新发布的一份报告显示，美国农民为实现单产及盈利最大化而普遍青睐转基因作物。该报告显示，美国２００９年播种的大豆中预计９１％为转基因品种，尽管这一比例低于去年的９２％，但却是三种主要研究作物中转基因比例最高的一种。不同地区的转基因比例也存在差异，俄亥俄州和密歇根州为８３％，南达科他州为９８％，最大的产豆州艾奥瓦和伊力诺依分别为９４％和９０％。美国使用的所有转基因大豆均具备抗除草剂特征。
棉花是转基因比例第二高的作物，２００９年美国播种的棉花中，转基因品种的比例创下８８％的新高，其中加利福尼亚州为７３％，密苏里州为９８％，主要产棉州得克萨斯的比例为８１％。
生物技术行业组织（Biotechnology Industry Organization）负责食品和农业的执行副总裁莎伦·伯玛·劳瑞琛（Sharon Bomer Lauritsen）说“自１９９６年以来，这些作物已表现出亩产高、生产成本低、耕作环保性能好的特点。”劳瑞琛还说：“全球农民的选择倾向反映出，生物技术和现代耕作方式正在不断被采用。２００８年，２５个国家的１３３０万农民播种了３．０９亿英亩转基因作物。目前美国及全世界正就不断上升的食品和燃料需求寻找可持续的科学解决方法，值此之际，转基因的发展趋势可能会继续下去。”
环保署延长拟定可再生燃料２号标准细则的评议期
美国环保署宣布将可再生燃料２号标准拟定细则的评议期延长６０天，目前评议期将截至９月２５日。此举将使环保署获得更多可供分析的信息，但也使一些机构（比如国家生物柴油委员会）更加担心可再生燃料２号标准的实施会被进一步推迟。
国家生物柴油委员会在一份声明中表达了对延长公开评议期的顾虑：“人人都同意，需要对环保署拟定的可再生燃料２号标准细则进行彻底的公开审核，而且评议期限应足够长，以便吸纳公众意见。显然有多种方式可以改进拟定细则，”国家生物柴油委员会说。“不过，需要重点指出的是，可再生燃料２号标准应该在今年年初实施，评议期的延长可能会进一步推迟该标准的实施。美国生物柴油行业将因此而面临更多困难。”
中国购买更多美国大豆
上周中国再次订购了两批定于今年夏季交货的美国大豆，交货时中国压榨厂可能已处在因大豆供应不足而被迫关闭的边缘。美国农业部确认，世界最大的大豆进口国中国订购了１１．３万吨美国大豆，定于２００９年大豆收割前交付。在确认这一消息的当天，美国农业部还发布了截至６月１日的大豆库存数字，数字表明，目前正值多年来国内供应最紧张的时节。
由于商品及金融市场普遍疲软，大豆类产品期价下跌
受节日前夕周末市况及商品和金融市场普遍疲软的影响，大豆类产品在７月２日收盘时价格下跌。７月份大豆期货价格下跌＄５．７０为＄４５６．７２，８月份下跌＄２．３９为＄４２４．０２，９月份下跌＄２．７６为３８９．８５；７月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄７．７２为＄４５３．２７，８月份下跌＄２．２０为＄４２１．３０，９月份下跌＄０．４４为＄３８４．４８；７月份豆油期货价格下跌１４．１１为＄７７５．５８，８月份下跌＄１４．９９为＄７７９．１１，９月份下跌＄１１．６８为＄７８６．１６。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
NOTE TO READERS: The Soy Export Weekly will not be published next week as staff will be out for the U.S. Independence Day Holiday. Publication resumes July 17.
USDA Acreage And Stocks Report Recap
USDA released its June guidance on U.S. spring planted crop acreage on June 30, along with its estimates of U.S. grain and soybean stocks inventories on hand as of June 1. The planted acreage estimates incorporate survey and field measurement data for a more robust examination of plantings, and the first since its March acreage intentions survey.
Soybean planted area for the 2009-10 crop increased 591,000 hectares from the March estimate to 31.4 million hectares, but this was about 243,000 hectares below market expectations. Soybean production for 2009-10 is forecast at 88.7 million tonnes, which is 8.33 million tonnes above last season. USDA reported that 91 percent of this season’s soybean acreage is planted with biotech varieties versus 92 percent last season. The soybean market still faces yield uncertainty and consequent risk due to minimal old-crop carryover and expected strong 2009-10 demands.
Census May Crush Report And Annual Fats And Oils Report Recap
The Census Bureau pegged the May crush at a surprisingly small 3.98 million tonnes, nearly 81,600 tonnes smaller than the trade were expecting given the NOPA crush. The April crush also was revised slightly lower. The May crush as reported by Census still reflected a slight increase in the daily crush rate from the previous 2 months, but was just 106,000 tonnes larger than the NOPA crush and just 102.8 percent of the NOPA crush. Both comparisons are the lowest since the summer of 2003. Also making the May Census crush look curiously small were the unusually high meal and oil yields implied for the month.
The Census Bureau’s smaller-than-expected meal and oil production combined with larger-than-expected meal and oil stocks indicated less improvement in domestic disappearance than thought following the NOPA report. Soybean meal stocks were anticipated to be large because May ended on a weekend, but reported stocks of 539,000 tonnes exceeded expectations and nearly were a marketing year high. Implied domestic use was 6 percent below last year and the 5-year average, which likely will be offset by better disappearance in June when stocks should decline to more normal levels. End-of-May soybean oil stocks were a marketing-year high at 1.45 million tonnes, implying May domestic use that was down 10 percent from last year and 8 percent below the 5-year average.
The Census Bureau also released the 2008 annual summary for its fats and oils report. Estimated usage of fats and oils in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production was revised higher for each month of 2008, in many cases by a significant amount. These upward revisions increased the Census Bureau’s estimate of the biodiesel industry’s total usage of fats and oils by 267,000 tonnes for the 2007-08 marketing year. Estimated soybean oil use in biodiesel increased by 124,000 tonnes to 1.47 million tonnes for 2007-08 and by 28,600 tonnes for the first quarter of 2008/09.
USDA: U.S. Farmers Favor GM Crops
U.S. farmers are massively favoring genetically modified (GM) crops as they seek to maximize yields and profitability, a new report from the USDA has shown. The report shows that an estimated 91 percent of U.S. soybeans are biotech in 2009 and, although this was a drop from 92 percent a year earlier, it represents the highest proportion of the three key crops studied. The proportions vary from 83 percent in Ohio and Michigan to 98 percent in South Dakota. Top soybeans growing states Iowa and Illinois used 94 percent and 90 percent, respectively. All biotech soybeans used in the United States are herbicide tolerant.
Cotton has the second highest proportion of biotech use, rising to a new high in 2009 of 88 percent across the United States, ranging from 73 percent in California to 98 percent in Missouri. Key state Texas has a level of 81 percent.
Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, executive vice president of food and agriculture for the Biotechnology Industry Organization, said: “Since 1996, these crops have proved to yield more per acre and reduce farmers’ production costs with more environmentally friendly farming practices.” Lauritsen added: “The move to biotechnology and modern farming practices is reflected in the choices of farmers around the world. In 2008, 309 million acres of biotech crops were planted in 25 countries by 13.3 million farmers. At a time when the United States and the world are looking for sustainable, science-based solutions to rising food and fuel demands, this trend is likely to continue.”
EPA Extends Comment Period For Proposed RFS-2 Rule
Comments on the Renewable Fuels Standard-2 (RFS2) proposed rule will now be due September 25 after a 60-day extension of the comment period was announced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The move will give the EPA more information to work with but has raised concern with some (like the National Biodiesel Board) that this could further slow implementation of RFS-2.
The NBB released a statement which expressed concern about the extension of the public comment period: “Everyone agrees with the need for a thorough public review of the EPA’s proposed RFS2 rule and a comment period of sufficient duration to accommodate public input. There are clearly ways to improve the proposed rule,” the NBB said. “With that said, it is important to note that RFS2 was supposed to be in place at the beginning of this year, and extension of the comment period could further delay the implementation of the program. This will provide additional hardship to the U.S. biodiesel industry.”
China Buys More U.S. Soybeans
China last week booking another two cargoes of American soybeans for delivery this summer at a time crushing plants may have to shut down for lack of beans. Confirmation by the U.S. Agriculture Department that China, the world’s top soy buyer, booked 113,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery before the 2009 crop is harvested came the same day the government issued its June 1 soybean stocks, a number that underscored domestic supply is the tightest in years.
Soy Complex Lower On Broad-Based Weakness In Commodity And Financial Markets
The soy complex closed lower on July 2 reflecting pre-holiday weekend positions and broad-based weakness in commodity and financial markets. July bean futures were down $5.70, finishing at $456.72; August lost $2.39, closing at $424.02; and September was down $2.76, ending at $389.85. July meal decreased $7.72, closing at $453.27; August was $2.20 lower, finishing at $421.30; and September meal closed down $0.44, ending at $384.48. July soyoil was $14.11 lower, finishing at $775.58; August was down $14.99, closing at $779.11; and September lost $11.68, closing at $786.16.
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