美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年６月２２日）
美国生物柴油委员会对环保属有关豆基燃料排放特性的分析提出质疑
美国生物柴油委员会相关人士表示，他们发现环保署针对生物柴油温室气体排放的分析存在重大缺陷。如果这一断言属实，生物柴油委员会将握有颠覆游戏规则的法宝。根据环保署的推断，豆基生物柴油与传统柴油相比，达不到温室气体减排５０％的法定要求。
环保署有权将减排底限放宽至４０％，但根据环保署分析师的评定，豆基生物柴油的减排量仅为２２％。达不到减排底限要求的生物柴油将不能获得新的年度使用量强制性保障。
但是，生物柴油委员会说，环保署在分析一氧化二氮排放量（主要产生于玉米地施加氮肥的过程中）时对大豆和玉米的处理有失公正。生物柴油委员会说，如果抛开对一氧化二氮排放的不公正的分析，那么，豆基生物柴油的碳排放量将立刻下降逾２０个百分点。也就是说，这将使豆基生物柴油相较于常规柴油的温室气体减排量超过４０％。
美国科学家联名声援生物柴油
包括两位大学院系主任在内的１００多位科学家在过去４个月内公开表示支持生物柴油，他们签署了名为“科学家支持生物柴油”的声明，摆明了科学界对这一重要替代燃料的立场。
密苏里大学副校长兼农学系主任托马斯·佩恩（Thomas Payne）认为生物柴油“今后将在美国能源及环保领域发挥重要作用。”他还说，“我很自豪能与越来越多的科学家共同表达对生物柴油的大力支持，并倡导加大投入力度，以确保生物柴油这一美国重要的能源来源充分实现其潜能。”
来自加州大学伯克利分校、德州理工大学、宾州州立大学、美国可再生能源实验室、食品及药品管理局及圣地亚国家实验室等众多机构的科学家均认同可再生生物柴油的前景及加大该领域研发投资的必要性。
艾奥瓦州立大学农业及生命科学学院院长兼实验站主任温迪·文特斯丁（Wendy Wintersteen）强调说，科学界的齐声呼吁非常重要。“科学家们相信，通过研究和创新，生物柴油的可持续性和效能将继续得到提升，”她说。“１００多位科学家签署该声明，足见生物在科学界所受支持的力度和广度。”
４月份货运量下降８．５％
运输局的货运服务指数表明，４月份美国公路、铁路、水路及管道的商品和货物运量同比下降了８．５％。这已是货运量连续第９个月出现下降。货运指数降至１００．２，为２００２年４月以来的最低水平。２００２年，美国经济增势迅猛，带动了运输需求的上升。随着美国经济的衰退，货运需求进一步下降。但是，目前经济可能已度过最困难的时期，衰退可能已达底部，这将导致货运需求出现相应触底。
在截至６月１３日的一周里，通过密西西比河主要船闸的驳船预计共运输了８０．５万吨大豆和谷物，略高于此前一周，比去年同期高８４％。去年驳船运量较低是因为密西西比河上游的洪水使该河段在６月份基本处于停运状态。
谷物的驳船运量从现阶段至７月中下旬通常会大幅上升，因为农场主及仓库运营商会在这一期间清空谷物库存，为秋收做准备。推动今年货运上升的另一因素在于，海运线路之间的价差使得墨西哥湾比太平洋西北沿岸更具运价优势。
印度在未来３个月预计将出口３０万吨豆粕
一位资深贸易官员表示，尽管价格高企导致购买行为趋于谨慎，但印度仍将在未来３个月内以东南亚国家为主要对象，出口３０万公吨豆粕。印度豆粕加工者协会发言人拉贾什·阿格拉沃（Rajesh Agrawal）说，猪流感的爆发并没有对印度豆粕的国内外需求造成影响。截至目前，联邦政府已确认了３０例国内猪流感病例。豆粕主要用作猪饲料，因此之前人们曾担心猪流感会抑制豆粕需求。
阿格拉沃说，尽管季雨迟来，但今年的大豆单产不太可能受到影响。“印度的大豆种植区通常在６月份的下半个月迎来季雨。因此，只要季雨在６月２０日至２５日期间来临，大豆作物就不会受到任何影响。”
由于出口销售呈强劲态势，多数大豆类产品期价上升
６月１８日收盘时，多数大豆类产品期价上升，其中新茬大豆合约价出现下跌，原因在于，高于预计的一周出口销售量及本销售年度迄今最高的一周豆粕出口量导致新老茬大豆之间的市场价差再次拉大。豆油期价随能源市场一同走低。尽管大豆基差水平趋于坚挺，但压榨利润仍具有吸引力，因此压榨量继续保持高位。如果美国农业部在６月３０日的谷物库存报告中没有给出令市场吃惊的高库存数字（截至６月１日），那么市场将需要进一步用价格来调节美国大豆的使用量。南美供应量的迅速销售一空丝毫没有减缓美国老茬大豆和豆粕的出口节奏，似乎还促进了美国新茬大豆的出口前景，因为今年秋季和冬季的竞争将有所减少。由于市场在寻找足以抑制美国老茬大豆使用量的水平，预计未来数周及数月市场会出现波动。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄２．８５为＄４４５．９７，８月份上升＄３．２２为＄４２２．６４，９月份上升＄０．１８为３９７．７５；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄５．５１为＄４４６．８７，８月份上升＄４．７４为＄４１６．０１，９月份上升＄１．１０为＄３８５．３６；７月份豆油期货价格下跌３．３１为＄８１４．６０，８月份下跌＄２．８７为＄８１８．１３，９月份下跌＄２．６５为＄８２１．８７。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
Biodiesel Board Disputes EPA’s Analysis of Soy Fuel Emissions
The folks at the National Biodiesel Board say they’ve found a key flaw in EPA’s Agency’s greenhouse-gas analysis of their fuel. If the board is right, they could have a game-changer. By EPA’s reckoning, soy-based biodiesel doesn’t come close to meeting the legal requirement that the fuel reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent when compared with conventional diesel.
EPA has the authority to ease that limit to 40 percent, but the agency’s analysts rated soy biodiesel at 22 percent. Biodiesel that doesn’t meet the threshold won’t qualify toward meeting the new annual usage mandates for the fuel.
However, the Biodiesel Board says the EPA analysis unfairly penalized soybeans as well as corn for nitrous oxide emissions that originate largely through the application of nitrogen fertilizer — on cornfields. Take away that nitrous oxide penalty and soy biodiesel suddenly loses more than 20 points on the carbon scale, according to the board. In other words, it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 40 percent in comparison to regular diesel.
Coalition Of U.S. Scientists Declare Support For Biodiesel
More than 100 scientists, including two University Deans, have gone on record in the past four months in support of biodiesel by signing the “Scientists for Biodiesel” declaration, putting science squarely on the side of this important alternative fuel.
Thomas Payne, Vice Chancellor and Dean at the University of Missouri School of Agriculture, sees biodiesel as playing “a key role in our nation’s future energy and environmental security.” He added, “I am proud to add my voice to the growing chorus of scientists who are singing the praises of biodiesel and advocating for an increased commitment that will ensure that biodiesel reaches its full potential as a vital U.S. energy source.”
Scientists from U.C. Berkeley, Texas Tech, Penn State, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Sandia National Laboratories, to name just a few, recognize both the promise of sustainable biodiesel and the need for increased investment in biodiesel research and development.
Dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and director of the Experiment Station at Iowa State University, Wendy Wintersteen, stressed the importance of a strong voice from the scientific community. “Scientists believe that research and innovation will continue to enhance the sustainability and efficiency of biodiesel,” she said. “With over 100 signatories, this declaration demonstrates the strength and breadth of support for biodiesel within the scientific community.”
Freight Movement Drops 8.5 percent During April
The movement of goods and commodities on the Nation’s highways, rails, waterways and pipelines dropped 8.5 percent year-over-year in April according the Bureau of Transportation’s Freight Transportation Services Index. This was the ninth consecutive month that freight was lower. Freight movement fell to an index of 100.2, the lowest level since April 2002. In 2002 the US economy was surging and pushing demand higher for transportation services. With the United States languishing in recession, demand for freight services continues to fall further behind. However, the economy has probably endured its most difficult period and has perhaps bottomed and that should lead to a corresponding bottom in the demand for freight.
The weekly movement of soybeans and grain by barge through the key locks on the Mississippi River System is projected to total 805 thousand tonnes through June 13. This will be slightly better than the previous week and 84 percent greater than the same week last year. Last year’s barge movements were slowed because of flooding on the Upper Mississippi River that essentially closed that stretch of the river for the month of June.
Grain barge movements firm up from this time forward through mid- to late-July as farmers and elevators clean out grain inventories in preparation for the fall harvest. This year’s movements are also benefiting from an ocean freight spread that provides a more favorable situation for exports out of the Center Gulf rather than through PNW elevators.
India Expects To Export 300,000 Tonnes Of Soymeal Over Next Three Months
India will export 300,000 metric tons of soybean meal over the next three months, mainly to Southeast Asian countries, despite cautious buying due to high prices, according to a senior trade official. Rajesh Agrawal, spokesman for the Soymeal Processors Association of India, the swine flu outbreak has not impacted demand for Indian soymeal locally or overseas. So far, the federal government has confirmed 30 cases of swine flu in the country. Soymeal is used as hog feed and swine flu was feared to hit feedmeal demand.
Agrawal said the late arrival of monsoon rains was unlikely to impact soybean yield for the season. “Traditionally, the soybean growing regions of India receive monsoon rains in the later part of June. So, as long as the monsoon arrives June 20-25, there should not be any impact.”
Soy Complex Mostly Higher On Strong Export Sales
The soy complex mostly higher on June 18 with the new-crop contracts posting losses as the market widened back out the oldcrop/new-crop inverses following stronger-than-expected weekly export sales and marketing-year high weekly soybean meal exports. Soybean oil futures were lower along with the energy markets. The crush continues to be strong amid attractive crush margins despite high soybean basis levels, which have strengthened. Unless USDA surprises the market with larger-than-expected June 1 stocks in its June 30 Grain Stocks report, the market needs to accomplish more rationing of the usage of US soybeans. The rapid depletion of South American supplies has not appreciably slowed old-crop US exports of soybeans and soybean meal and looks to boost US new-crop export prospects because of reduced competition this fall and winter. Volatility should be expected in the coming weeks and months as the market seeks a level that sufficiently will restrain the usage of old-crop US soybeans. July bean futures were up $2.85, finishing at $445.97; August gained $3.22, closing at $422.64; and September was up $0.18, ending at $397.75. July meal increased $5.51, closing at $446.87; August was $4.74 higher, finishing at $416.01; and September meal closed up $1.10, ending at $385.36. July soyoil was $3.31 lower, finishing at $814.60; August was down $2.87, closing at $818.13; and September lost $2.65, closing at $821.87.
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