美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年５月１８日）
《全球农产品供需预测》综述
上周美国农业部发布了一季度《全球农产品供需预测》，对２００９－２０１０年度作物的供需走势进行了预测，同时还首次更新了自２月份以来的前景展望。２００８－２００９年度老茬大豆的评估数据也得到更新。
在中国购买力保持强劲而阿根廷预估收成不断下降的形势下，美国老茬大豆库存发挥了牛市主要推动力的作用。美国农业部预计２００８－２００９年度美国大豆库存将降至３５４万吨的极低水平，２００９－２０１０年度的库存将达到６２６万吨。基于２００９年８７００万吨的预期产量（按每公顷２．８６吨的单产推算）和压榨量及出口量稳中有升的走势，美国农业部预计大豆库存将增长２７２万吨。
美国农业部说，２００９－２０１０年度全球油籽产量预计将比上一年度上升近２６００万吨，达到纪录高点。２００９－２０１０年度包括大豆和油菜籽在内的全球油籽产量预计将达到创纪录的４．２２１亿吨，比上一年度的预估产量高２５９０万吨，其中大豆的全球产量预计将比上一年度上升１４％，达到２．４１７亿吨。
阿根廷尽管遭遇严重旱灾，但由于收获面积扩大且单产回升到较高的趋势水平，预计大豆产量仍将比２００８－２００９年度的调整后预估产量高１７００万吨，达到５１００万吨。
巴西由于收获面积上升３％，预计大豆产量将达到６０００万吨，比２００８－２００９年度高３００万吨。
中国由于播种面积下降（美国农业部预计中国２００９－２０１０年度的产量为１５６０万吨），预计大豆产量将比２００８－２００９年度下降４０万吨。
尽管油籽预估产量上升，但由于期初库存的下降抵消了其它方面的上升，预计全球供应量将仅上升４％。
预计２００９－２０１０年全球蛋白粕消费量将上升３％，其中中国的消费量将上升４％，占全球蛋白粕消费总量的３２％。
另外，全球大豆贸易量预计将达到７５３０万吨，比２００８－２００９年度上升２１０万吨。美国农业部说，中国的进口量预计将达到３８１０万吨，超过全球交易总量的一半。
经济学家预计美国农民将放弃玉米而改种大豆
一位农业经济学家上周说，由于反季节性的凉爽和多雨天气继续抑制美国春播进度，约２００万英亩（８０．９万公顷）原定播种玉米的农田现在可能会改种大豆或其它作物。分析人士认为，雨水天气将导致美国玉米播种面积下降１００万英亩（４０．５万公顷），美国农场局联盟经济学家特里·佛朗科（Terry Francl）说，如果雨水天气持续下去，玉米面积的“降幅可能高达１５０万至２００万英亩［６０．７万至８０．９万公顷］。”
美国农业部说，截至５月１０日，美国玉米的播种进度为５０％左右，明显慢于往年同期７１％的平均进度。在伊力诺依和印第安纳这两个玉米主产州，玉米的播种进度仅为１０％。
与此同时，大豆播种面积也明显落后于原定计划，预计美国农民仅完成了１４％的大豆播种，相当于通常进度的一半。
美国农业部预计２００９－２０１０年度用于生产生物燃料的玉米将达到１．１２亿吨，高于本销售年度（截至８月３１日）的１．０２亿吨。
伊力诺依州立大学农业推广经济学家达瑞尔·古德（Darrel Good）在其分析中说，“随着玉米地带东部玉米播种的持续推迟．．．．．．已开始有人预计，部分玉米地将改种大豆。”
美国农业部的单产预测“可能有些乐观，”古德说，“除非夏季的天气和去年一样有利。玉米价格似乎仍有进一步上升的空间。”
美国油籽加工者协会公布４月份压榨数字
美国油籽加工者协会公布的４月份压榨量为３６５万吨，比行业预计高大约２．７２万至５．４４万吨。油籽加工者协会公布的豆油库存数字比上个月上调了５．３１万吨。这使得普查局的油籽库存数字稳高于１３６万吨，并意味着在生物柴油利润极为不利的形势下，本销售年度迄今出现了月度消费量的同比最大降幅。相比之下，豆粕的国内消费量则表现为本销售年度较小的一次同比降幅。
美国农业部：印尼的大豆进口量预计将上升
据美国农业部农业专员报告，印尼在本销售年度（自１０月１日开始）的豆粕进口量预计将比上一年度增长６％，达到２６０万吨。报道说，“尽管面临全球金融危机，但印尼的经济预计仍将保持约４％的增长，因此牲畜用蛋白粕的消费量将上升。”报道还说，豆粕在印尼主要用于家禽业和养鱼业。２００９－２０１０年度大豆进口量预计也将上升至１８０万吨，高于２００８－２００９年度的１４０万吨。报道说，进口大豆主要用于加工豆腐、天贝等大众化食品，因此印尼的大豆消费未受全球经济危机的影响。
受老茬大豆供应紧张及出口和压榨形势的影响，多数大豆类产品期价上升
由于老茬大豆供应紧张、一周出口销售呈坚挺态势且美国油籽加工者协会４月份的压榨数字高于预计，多数大豆类产品在５月１４日收盘时价格上升。本销售年度下半年大豆出口因中国需求旺盛而保持强劲势头，此外，大豆压榨量也因豆粕出口急剧上升而得到促进。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄７．１６为＄４２１．６３，８月份下跌＄４．９６为＄４０３．６３，９月份上升＄４．９６为３８２．３１；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１０．８０为＄３９９．３６，８月份上升＄１０．５８为＄３７８．２０，９月份上升＄１０．２５为＄３５６．３７；７月份豆油期货价格下跌７．０５为＄８５６．２７，８月份下跌＄７．２８为＄８５９．７９，９月份下跌＄７．５０为＄８６３．１０。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
WASDE Report Recap
Last week, USDA released its first seasonal WASDE look at 2009-10 crop supply and demand prospects, and the first outlook update since February. Old-crop 2008-09 estimates were updated as well.
Old-crop U.S. soybean stocks have been a major bullish market driver amid continuing Chinese purchases and declining Argentine crop estimates. USDA sees 2008-09 U.S. soybean stocks at a minimal 3.54 million tonnes, and projected 2009-10 stocks at 6.26 million tonnes. With an expected 2009 production of 87 million tonnes on a yield of 2.86 tonnes per hectare, and firmer crush and exports, stocks were projected to rise 2.72 million tonnes.
World oilseed output is expected to hit a record high in 2009-10 climbing nearly 26 million tonnes year on year, according to USDA. Global oilseed production, including soybeans and rapeseed, is projected at a record 422.1 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 25.9 million from the 2008-09 estimate. Of the total, international soybean production is pegged to climb by 14 percent year on year to 241.7 million tonnes produced globally.
Despite heavy drought the Argentine crop is projected to climb 17 million tonnes from the revised estimate for the 2008-09 crop, to 51 million tonnes as a result of increases in the harvested area and a return to higher trend yields.
The Brazilian soybean crop is projected at 60 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from 2008-09 based on a 3 percent increase in the harvested area.
Chinese soybean production meanwhile is projected down 0.4 million tonnes from the 2008-09 crop as a result of reduced plantings, the report said, pitching Chinese 2009-10 production at 15.6 million tonnes.
Despite the higher anticipated oilseed production, world supplies are thought to be up by just 4 percent with lower beginning stocks offsetting any other gains.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3 percent in 2009-10, with China’s consumption increasing by 4 percent and accounting for 32 percent of the world’s total protein meal consumption.
Meanwhile, global soybean trade is projected at 75.3 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from 2008-09. Chinese imports are projected to account for just over half of world trade at 38.1 million tonnes, the report said.
Economists See Some U.S. Farmers Shifting From Corn To Soybeans
As unseasonal cool and rainy weather continues to slow spring plantings in the United States, around 2 million acres (809,000 hectares) originally intended for corn are now likely to be planted with soybeans or other crops, an agricultural economist said last week. Analysts believe that the country’s corn acreage will drop by as much as 1 million acres (405,000 hectares) due to rain and “could drop by as much as 1.5 million to 2 million acres [607,000-809,000 hectares]” if the wet weather continues, said Terry Francl, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.
As of May 10 around half of the U.S. corn crop had been planted according to the USDA, far behind the average for this time of year of 71 percent of total crop planted. In Illinois and Indiana, two major corn-growing states, only a tenth of the crop has already been sown.
Meanwhile soybean plantings are also considerably behind schedule with U.S. farmers thought to have planted just 14 percent of their soybeans, which equates to half the usual rate.
USDA projects 112 million tonnes of corn will be used in 2009-10 to make biofuels, up from 102 million tonnes this marketing year, which ends on August 31.
Darrel Good, a University of Illinois extension economist, said in his analysis: “Ongoing corn planting delays in the eastern Corn Belt...are resulting in some expectations of a modest shift from corn to soybean acreage.”
USDA’s yield estimate “may be a little optimistic,” Good continued, “unless summer weather is as favorable as last year’s weather. There appears to be some room for additional advances in corn prices.”
NOPA April Crush Recap
The NOPA crush for April was 3.65 million tonnes, about 27,200 to 54,400 tonnes more than trade expectations. NOPA’s soybean oil stocks increased 53,100 tonnes from the previous month. This puts Census oil stocks solidly above 1.36 million tonnes and implies the biggest year-over-year reduction in monthly domestic disappearance so far this marketing year amid extremely negative biodiesel margins. Soybean meal domestic disappearance, on the other hand, posted one of its smaller year-over-year declines of the marketing year.
USDA: Indonesia Soybean Imports Expected To Increase
Indonesia’s soybean meal imports are expected to increase 6 percent on year to 2.6 million tonnes in the marketing year beginning October 1, according to a USDA attaché report. “Despite the global financial crisis, Indonesia’s economy is forecast to grow about 4 percent, so consumption of protein from animals will grow,” said the report. The report added Indonesia uses soy meal mostly in the poultry and fisheries sector. Soybean imports too are expected to rise to 1.8 million tonnes in 2009-10 compared with 1.4 million tonnes in 2008-09. The report said the global economic crisis hasn’t affected soybean consumption in Indonesia, as imported soybeans are used for popular food items such as tofu and tempe.
Soy Complex Mostly Higher On Tight Old Crop Supplies, Exports And Crush
The soy complex closed mostly higher on May 14 reflecting support from tightening old-crop supplies, solid weekly export sales, and a larger-than-expected NOPA crush in April. In addition to strong soybean exports during the second half of the marketing year largely due to robust Chinese imports, the soybean crush has gotten a boost from a surge in soybean meal exports. July bean futures were up $7.16, finishing at $421.63; August gained $4.96, closing at $403.63; and September was up $4.96, ending at $382.31. July meal increased $10.80, closing at $399.36; August was $10.58 higher, finishing at $378.20; and September meal closed up $10.25, ending at $356.37. July soyoil was $7.05 lower, finishing at $856.27; August was down $7.28, closing at $859.79; and September lost $7.50, closing at $863.10.
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