美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年５月４日）
美国大豆出口上升，供应紧张态势隐现
今年美国大豆的出口前景正延续着去年创纪录的出口走势。但是，由于阿根廷旱灾导致大豆收成下降，过去两个月来美国大豆出口量出现上升。阿根廷产量的下降致使２００８－２００９年度的大豆出口业务再次向美国靠拢，预计美国２００８－２００９年度的大豆出口量将达到３４４０万吨，２００９－２０１０年度将达到３６１０万吨。过去两个月来，美国２００８－２００９年度的大豆出口量上升了１７７万吨，２００９－２０１０年度的出口量上升了２７２万吨。
中国政府最近表示，为了促进本种植年度的国内豆价，政府将在６月底之前继续向国内豆农收购大豆，用以增加国家储备。由于美国２００９年度的大豆需等到秋季才能出口，而在此之前中国却保持旺盛需求，因此２００８－２００９年度美国大豆结转库存的潜在紧张程度将取决于需要压榨和出口多少老茬大豆才能弥补南美供货的短缺。今年南部产区大豆播种延迟，这有可能加剧老茬大豆的供应紧张态势。
另外，美国农业部在其《预期播种面积》报告中似乎低估了总播种面积，大豆相对于玉米的经济回报率已有所改善。因此，如果美国农业部６月３０日公布的大豆播种面积超过其之前预计的３０８０万公顷，也并不令人意外，尤其是在多雨天气导致玉米播种推迟进而致使部分玉米地改种大豆的情况下。此外，如果南美的收成小于目前的预计或中国明年继续增加大豆储备，那么２００９－２０１０年度美国的大豆出口量有可能比分析人士的预计还要大。
美国普查局公布３月份最新压榨数字
普查局上周将截至三月底的豆油库存数字下调２７２０吨至１３９万吨。普查局还报告说，用于生产甲酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量从２月份的６.３５万吨锐减至３.７６万吨。生物柴油行业使用的动植物油总量从２月份的１２.３万吨下降至３月份的１０.３万吨，而除豆油外其它原料的总用量却上升了５４４０吨。鉴于２月份生物柴油产量下降且目前利润仍极其微薄，行业对２００８－２００９年度生物柴油中豆油用量的预测似乎有些过高，但尽管如此，近期生物柴油产量的任何下降均需在２０１０日历年度结束之前通过产量的提高来弥补，因为只有这样才能达到２００９年和２０１０年１１.５亿加仑的强制用量标准。
明尼苏达州推出５％生物柴油强制令；艾奥瓦州增量强制令推迟实施
明尼苏达州新出台的５％生物柴油（B５）强制令已于5月1日生效，这标志着它成为第一个强制实施这一比例的州。尽管人们担心可再生燃料在明尼苏达州寒冷的冬季会遇到问题，但２００５年还是推出了添加２％生物柴油的强制令。此后至今，人们发现，生物柴油与常规２号柴油具有基本相同的特征，即当天气变冷时，生物柴油也会凝结。因此在冬天使用生物柴油混合燃料时，可按类似于２号柴油的方式处理生物柴油混合燃料。
明尼苏达州大豆农场主、美国生物柴油委员会主席艾德·海格兰德（Ed Hegland）说，他“所在的州不仅倡导能源创新，而且参与生物柴油等有价值的解决方案，为此他感到自豪。”明尼苏达州针对生物柴油的强制性混合比例将在２０１２年提升至１０％，２０１５年提升至２０％。
另外，艾奥瓦州有关强制本州柴油添加５％生物柴油的法案因审议时间不充分而被推迟到明年实施。该法案（编号为SF ４６４）于４月１５日以３１票对１９票获得州参议院通过，目前正等待州众议院筹款委员会的审议。
但是，艾奥瓦州生物柴油委员会执行董事兰迪·奥尔森（Randy Olsen）说，艾奥瓦州两年期立法会第一年的休会期已定于４月２５日开始，因此法案的审议将推迟到２０１０年１月。奥尔森说，众议院立法委员告诉他，他们要到明年１月才会审议该法案。明年参议院复会后必须修订的其中一项内容就是该法案的生效时间。根据目前法案的规定，B５强制令的生效时间为７月１日。
艾奥瓦州有关生物柴油规定的法案与明尼苏达州目前的法案类似。该法案要求艾奥瓦州销售和使用的所有柴油燃料必须添加５％的生物柴油。添加比例将在２０１２年７月１日提升至１０％，２０１５年７月１日提升至２０％。该法授权艾奥瓦州农业厅厅长在特定情况（包括出现供应问题时）下取消强制令。
去年美国生物柴油产量接近７亿加仑。华盛顿、俄勒冈、宾夕法尼亚、路易斯安那、新墨西哥和马萨诸塞等州也出台了有关生物柴油的规定。
菲律宾针对转基因产品实施的省级禁令对饲料行业构成危害
西内格罗省（Negros Occidental）兽医师４月２９日告诫说，菲律宾对转基因产品实施的省级禁令可能导致本地牲畜业和家禽业陷入瘫痪。兽医师瑞纳特·迪赛纳（Renante Decena）说，西内格罗省家禽及牲畜饲料原料中近９０％来自进口，其中大部分为转基因产品。饲料的日均需求量为１４０吨，原料分别为大豆、玉米、小麦、鱼粉、维生素及矿物质。
迪赛纳说，菲律宾需要进口转基因产品，因为牲畜行业需要通过进口产品来满足行业对大豆、高粱、小麦粕以及大部分饲料玉米的需求。
受强劲出口销售和投机性购买的影响，大豆类产品期价上升
The Soy Export Weekly Update
U.S. Soybean Exports Improve, Tight Supplies Could Be On The Horizon
This year’s U.S. soybean export outlook follows a record program from the previous year. However, the U.S. export program has improved the past two months as Argentina’s drought is leading to a smaller soybean crop. The cut to Argentina’s production brings export business for soybeans back to the U.S. for 2008-09, which is forecast at 34.4 million tonnes and 36.1 million tonnes for 2009-10. Over the past two months soybean exports have been raised 1.77 million tonnes for 2008-09 and 2.72 million tonnes for 2009-10.
China’s government indicated recently that it will continue buying domestic soybeans from its farmers and putting them into state reserves until the end of June to support local prices through its planting season. How tight the 2008-09 U.S. carryout gets likely will be determined by how many old-crop soybeans have to be crushed and exported to compensate for a shortfall in South American supplies amid strong Chinese demand before the 2009 crop begins to reach the export pipeline this fall. The slow start to southern soybean planting has the potential to exacerbate the tightness in old-crop supplies.
Meanwhile, USDA appears to have understated overall acreage in its Prospective Plantings report and the economics have improved for growing soybeans relative to corn. Thus, it would not be a surprise to see soybean area in USDA’s June 30 Acreage report exceed its planting intentions estimate of 30.8 million hectares, especially if wet conditions delay corn plantings enough that some acreage is shifted to soybeans. On the other hand, 2009-10 U.S. exports could be ever larger than analysts’ forecasts if the South American crops are smaller than current estimates or if China continues to add to its soybean reserves next year
March Census Crush Recap
The Census Bureau last week revised end-of-March soybean oil stocks 2,720 tonnes lower to 1.39 million tonnes. Census also reported that soybean oil usage in methyl ester (mostly biodiesel) production plunged to just 37,600 tonnes in March from 63,500 tonnes in February. The industry’s total usage of fats and oils dropped to 103,000 tonnes in March from 123,000 tonnes in February as combined usage of feedstocks other than soybean oil increased by 5,440 tonnes. Although the industry forecast for soybean oil used in biodiesel during 2008-09 appears too high given the drop in production during February and current margins that are deeply negative, any reduction in biodiesel production in the near term will need to be offset with more production before the end of calendar year 2010 for the combined mandated usage level of 1.15 billion gallons for 2009 and 2010 to be met.
Minnesota Adopts Five Percent Biodiesel Mandate; Iowa’s Mandate Increase Delayed
Minnesota’s new 5 percent biodiesel (B5) mandate took effect on May 1 becoming the first state at that level. A 2 percent mandate was enacted in 2005 despite concerns the renewable fuel would have problems in the cold Minnesota winters. Since that time it has been found biodiesel has much the same characteristics as regular Number-2 diesel, when it gets cold, it gels. In the same manner, biodiesel blends can be treated for winter use in similar ways that Number-2 diesel is treated.
Ed Hegland, a Minnesota soybean farmer and Chairman of the National Biodiesel Board says he is, “[P]roud to live in a state that is leading energy innovations and taking part in valuable solutions like biodiesel.” The Minnesota mandate will move to 10 percent in 2012 and 20 percent by 2015.
Meanwhile, an Iowa bill that would mandate a 5 percent biodiesel blend into diesel used in the state has been delayed until next year because of a lack of time for debate. The bill, SF 464, had passed the state Senate on April 15 in a 31 to 19 vote, and was waiting for discussion in the Ways and Means Committee of the state House of Representatives.
However, with the first year of Iowa’s two-year legislative session scheduled for adjournment on April 25, action was delayed until January 2010, said Randy Olsen, executive director of the Iowa Biodiesel Board. Olsen said he was told by the house legislators that they won’t act on the bill until January. One part of the bill that will have to be changed when the House returns next year is when the legislation should take effect. The current bill set a July 1 effective date for the B5 mandate.
The Iowa bill is similar to the current Minnesota law for biodiesel. It calls for mandating a 5 percent biodiesel blend with all diesel fuel sold and used in the state of Iowa. The percentage goes up to 10 percent on July 1, 2012, and 20 percent on July 1, 2015. The bill gives authority to the Iowa Secretary of Agriculture to waive the mandate under certain situations, including when there are supply problems.
Last year U.S. biodiesel production approached 700 million gallons. Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, New Mexico and Massachusetts have also passed biodiesel requirements.
Philippine Provincial Ban On GM Product Hurting Livestock Feed Programs
The Philippine provincial ban on genetically modified (GM) products could lead to the collapse of the local livestock and poultry industries, the Negros Occidental provincial veterinarian warned on April 29. Almost 90 percent of the ingredients for poultry and livestock feeds needed in Negros Occidental are imported, and the majority of these are genetically modified, vet Renante Decena said. The average feed requirement is 140 tonnes per day, composed of soybeans, corn, wheat, fishmeal, vitamins and minerals.
Decena said that the GM imports were needed because the livestock industry relies upon imports in order to meet all of its soybean requirements, sorghum and wheat meal, as well as most of its feed corn needs.
Soy Complex Up On Strong Exports Sales And Speculative Buying
The soy complex closed higher on April 30 reflecting strong weekly export sales of soybeans and products and speculative buying. Soybean futures could see a setback at some point soon if China’s imports moderate. However, its government indicated recently that it intends to continue buying domestic soybeans through the end of June, and said that it had raised its target for state soybean reserves to 7.25 million tonnes from 6 million tonnes. May bean futures were up $13.23, finishing at $393.15; July gained $11.02, closing at $387.64; and August was up $7.53, ending at $375.88. May meal increased $13.67, closing at $377.54; July was $11.24 higher, finishing at $364.31; and August meal closed up $7.50, ending at $348.55. May soyoil was $17.42 higher, finishing at $798.51; July was up $17.20, closing at $804.90; and August gained $17.20, closing at $808.65.
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