美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年４月２７日）
能源信息管理局：生物柴油市场面临不确定性前景
美国能源信息管理局本周表示，美国减税措施漏洞的封堵以及欧洲进口税的实施可能抑制美国生物柴油的对外贸易，因此市场将来可能面临困境。根据可再生燃料标准，预计２００９年美国柴油燃料中生物柴油（一种用植物油或动物油加工的可再生燃料）的添加量将达到５亿加仑。预定目标是到２０１２年将添加量增至１０亿加仑。该机构表示，受这一目标及燃料价格不断上涨的推动，近年来生物柴油产量大幅上升，同时税收激励措施还导致国外生物燃料大量涌入美国。“但是，今年美国生物柴油市场的前景极具不确定性，”该机构在本周发布的《燃油市场一周回顾》中表示。
近期对美国生物柴油市场造成重大影响的美国立法及欧洲法规包括：
《２００５年能源政策法》
该法推出的可再生燃料标准规定，２００９年国内使用的柴油燃料将添加５亿加仑生物柴油，２０１２年将添加１０亿加仑。
《乙醇消费税按量减免措施》或《混合燃料税减免措施》
《混合燃料税减免措施》于２００４年出台，２００５年获准延期，规定石油燃料中每加入１加仑生物柴油即可享受１美元的减税优惠。该举措的初衷在于确保生物柴油混合燃料有能力与石油燃料竞争，从而扩大需求并刺激生物柴油加工设施领域的投资。但同时，该措施也存在“漏洞，”使进口生物柴油可借减税之机从中获利，因此生物柴油贸易量大幅上升。运营商以“瞒天过海”的方式利用这一漏洞。他们将少量石油燃料加入进口的Ｂ１００油罐中以享受混合燃料减税优惠（“瞒天”）。１０００加仑生物柴油只需加入１加仑常规柴油即可达到混合燃料减税标准。获得减税优惠之后，混合燃料往往会被出售到国外市场（“过海”）。正因如此，来自亚洲和拉美越来越多的进口生物柴油开始利用这一漏洞。美国生物柴油进口量从２００４年的４００万加仑迅速上升到２００８年的３．１５亿加仑。同期美国生物柴油出口量也从５００万加仑上升到６．７７亿加仑，其中大部分出口到欧盟成员国。
《２００８年紧急经济稳定法》
该法将混合燃料税减免措施延期至２００９年１２月３１日，但封堵了“瞒天过海”这一漏洞。国外生产的生物柴油运到美国后不再享受混合燃料减税优惠，而国产生物柴油经混合后出口，仍可享受该优惠。
《欧盟有关进口美国生物柴油的税收规定》
欧盟针对从美国进口的生物柴油开始征收反倾销税和反补贴税。从３月１３日起的６个月内，向欧盟出口生物柴油的美国公司将必须支付至多２９％的反倾销税和２９％至４１％的反补贴税。
美国普查局公布的３月份大豆压榨数字与市场预期一致
根据美国普查局公布的数据，３月份的大豆压榨量为３９４万吨，比市场预期高约１．３６万吨；豆粕库存为３０．４万吨，降幅超过预计；豆油库存为１３９万吨，增幅小于预计，说明国内消费量的降幅小于预期。从压榨量和国内消费量超过预期且出口强劲、压榨利润不断上升这一事实来看，２００８－２００９年度约４４６０万吨的压榨量虽比美国农业部的预计高出１３．６万吨，但仍没有达到足够的高度。
印度预计将增加豆油进口量
印度炼油者协会表示，印度在４月份的植物油进口量可能达到约６０万至７０万吨，５月份也将达到同等规模。该协议总裁艾索克·赛思亚（Ashok Sethia）说，如果国内产量不能提高，今后５年印度将需要把植物油进口量提高６０％。印度在截至１０月３１日的销售年度里进口了６３０万吨植物油。该协会的数据显示，印度在２００８－２００９年度前５个月的植物油进口总量同比上升了５９％，达到３５９万吨。印度联邦政府已于３月份取消了２０％的豆油进口税。
中国政府要求企业控制大豆进口节奏
中国商务部４月２４日说，国内企业应控制大豆和油菜籽进口节奏，以免库存过大带来风险。但是就在今后两三个月而言，中国的大豆进口节奏似乎不太可能明显放慢。商务部的要求并不令人意外，因为在播种季节临近之际，政府不希望国内大豆价格出现下降，但同时这也进一步表明，美国老茬大豆出口量可能至少达到一些分析人士预计的１２．５亿蒲式耳，甚至可能更高。在２００８－２００９年度延期库存已降至极低水平的情况下，大豆期价及新/老茬大豆差价可能会进一步上升。
受获利回吐及玉米/大豆套利行为的影响，多数大豆类产品期价下跌
由于获利回吐及玉米/大豆间套利行为近期导致大豆相对于玉米的收益上升趋势发生逆转，多数大豆产品４月２３日收盘时价格下跌。强劲的大豆出口继续加剧老茬大豆的供需紧张态势。另外，２００８－２００９年度的大豆压榨量似乎高于之前的预期，部分原因在于阿根廷出口前景的不确定性导致近几周豆粕和豆油出口迅猛增长。同时，２００９－２０１０销售年度大豆库存的潜在规模也因南美今年减产（南美的实际产量有可能比目前的预计还低）而受到抑制。在老茬大豆库存可能降至极低水平之际，大豆期价有望获得更多上行潜力。价格今后的潜在下跌空间似乎正在缩减，就２００９－２０１０年度的供需形势而言，单产下降或新茬大豆出口量超过分析人士当前预期的可能性非常小，除非中国决定继续增加国家大豆储备量。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄３．０３为＄３８１．３０，７月份下跌＄２．５７为＄３７９．１９，８月份下跌＄２．３９为３７０．５６；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄５．４０为＄３５８．１４，７月份下跌＄５．２９为＄３５０．３１，８月份下跌＄５．０７为＄３３８．７４；５月份豆油期货价格上升２．４３为＄７９８．０７，７月份上升＄２．６５为＄８０４．６８，８月份上升＄２．６５为＄８０８．２１。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
EIA: U.S. Biodiesel Market Faces Uncertain Future
The future of the U.S. biodiesel market could face some difficulty as the removal of a tax credit loophole and new European import tariffs could slow down trade, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week. Half a billion gallons of biodiesel, a renewable fuel made from vegetable oils or animal fats, is expected to be blended into diesel fuel in the U.S. in 2009 under the renewable fuel standard. The target is mandated to increase to 1 billion gallons by 2012. This along with rising fuel prices prompted a surge in production in past years with tax incentives funneling much of the fuel abroad, the said. “However, the outlook for the U.S. biodiesel market this year remains highly uncertain,” the agency said in its weekly review of the oil market.
Recent U.S. legislative actions that have changed the U.S. biodiesel market include:
The Energy Policy Act of 2005
Established the RFS program that requires that 0.5 billion gallons of biodiesel be blended into domestically consumed diesel fuel in 2009, rising to 1.0 billion gallons in 2012.
The Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit or “Blender Tax Credit (BTC)”
The BTC, first established in 2004 and extended in 2005, provides a $1.00-per-gallon tax credit for biodiesel that is blended with petroleum diesel. The intent of the BTC was to make biodiesel blends competitive with petroleum diesel, thereby increasing demand and spurring investment in biodiesel supply infrastructure. The BTC created a “loophole” that allowed imported biodiesel to benefit from the tax credit, which led to significant increases in biodiesel trade. Operators could exploit the loophole, called “splash and dash,” by adding a small amount of petroleum diesel fuel (“splashing”) to an imported tanker load of B100. Adding just 1 gallon of conventional diesel to 1,000 gallons of biodiesel was enough to qualify for the BTC. The shipment was often then exported (“dashed”) to foreign markets. As a result, increasingly large volumes of imported biodiesel from Asia and Latin America took advantage of the loophole. U.S. biodiesel imports grew from 4 million gallons in 2004 to 315 million gallons in 2008. U.S. biodiesel exports grew from 5 million to 677 million gallons over this same period, with most of the exports going to member countries of the European Union (EU).
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA)
The EESA extended the BTC through December 31, 2009, but closed the “splash and dash” loophole. Foreign-produced biodiesel sent to the United States no longer receives the BTC, but domestic biodiesel that is blended and then exported is still eligible.
EU Duties On U.S. Imports Of Biodiesel
EU imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on imports of biodiesel from the United States. Starting on March 13, for the next six months, U.S. firms exporting biodiesel into the EU will have to pay anti-dumping tariffs of up to 29 percent and anti-subsidy duties ranging between 29 percent and 41 percent.
March U.S. Census Soy Crush In Line With Estimates
The Census Bureau pegged the March soybean crush at 3.94 million tonnes, which was about 13,600 tonnes above market expectations. Soybean meal stocks of 304,000 tonnes declined more than expected and soybean oil stocks of 1.39 million tonnes did not increase as much as expected, implying smaller-than-anticipated declines in domestic usage. The stronger-than-expected crush and domestic offtake combined with strong product exports and improving crush margins suggest that a 2008-09 crush of roughly 44.6 million tonnes is not high enough even though it is 136,000 tonnes more than USDA’s projection.
Indian Expects Increased Soyoil Imports
India is likely to import around 600,000-700,000 tonnes of vegetable oil in April and the same amount in May and total imports in 2008-09 are likely to rise to a record 7.5 million tonnes, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India. The country will need to import about 60 percent more vegetable oil in the next five years if domestic production fails to improve, said Ashok Sethia, president of the association. India imported 6.3 million tonnes of vegetable oil in the oil marketing year ended October 31. The country’s total vegetable oil imports in the first five months of 2008-09 rose 59 percent on year to 3.59 million tonnes, SEA data showed. The federal government had scrapped a 20 percent import duty on soyoil in March.
Chinese Government Asks Companies To Limit Soy Imports
Chinese companies should slow soybean and rapeseed imports to avoid risks associated with large inventories, the Ministry of Commerce said April 24. However, it appears unlikely that China’s soybean import pace will moderate much, if any, during the next couple of months. Although this is not a surprise given that the government was not expected to let domestic prices fall with China’s planting season approaching, it underscores the likelihood that old-crop U.S. soybean exports could be at least at large some analysts’ projection of 1,250 million bushels, and perhaps higher. With the 2008-09 carryout already at a minimal-type level, soybean futures and the old-crop/newcrop inverse could rally further.
Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Profit Taking And Corn/Soybean Spread
The soy complex closed mostly lower on April 23 reflecting profit taking and corn/soybean spreading that reversed the recent trend of soybeans gaining in their revenue relationship with corn. Robust soybean exports continue to tighten the old-crop balance sheet. In addition, the 2008-09 soybean crush looks to be larger than previously thought, partially because of strong meal and oil exports in recent weeks amid uncertainty about Argentina’s exports. Meanwhile, the extent that soybean stocks may rebuild in the 2009-10 marketing year is being undermined by this year’s production shortfall in South America, where the crops may be even smaller than current estimates. Soybean futures likely have more upside potential through the growing season with old-crop stocks likely to be drawn to a minimal level. The extent that prices could ease thereafter appears to be decreasing with the 2009-10 balance sheet having little room for a yield shortfall or a new-crop export program that exceeds analysts’ current projections, which is possible if China decides to continue adding soybeans to its state reserves. May bean futures were down $3.03, finishing at $381.30; July lost $2.57, closing at $379.19; and August was down $2.39, ending at $370.56. May meal decreased $5.40, closing at $358.14; July was $5.29 lower, finishing at $350.31; and August meal closed down $5.07, ending at $338.74. May soyoil was $2.43 higher, finishing at $798.07; July was up $2.65, closing at $804.68; and August gained $2.65, closing at $808.21.
 |
 |
|
© Copyright 2008 U.S. Soybean Export Council |
||