US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年４月１３日）

美国农业部公布最新全球农产品供需预测

美国农业部在４月份全球农产品供需预测报告中沿用了３月３１日发布的美国谷物库存数字。另外，美国农业部还更新了其对２００８－２００９年度全球当前使用量和贸易量的预估。美国农业部对美国玉米、大豆和小麦预估供应量/使用量的调整与市场预期总体相符，这些农产品隐含期末预估库存的下调幅度非常接近市场预期。就全球供需走势而言，粗加工谷物和小麦的使用量分别下调了２００－３００万吨，大豆使用量下调了不到１００万吨。

隐含大豆延期库存下调了５４.４万吨至４４９万吨。如前几个月一样，预估出口量出现上调（上调９８万吨至３２９０万吨），预估压榨量出现下调（下调１３.６万吨至４４５０万吨）。

至于其它国家的情况，阿根廷的大豆预估产量因播种面积和单位产量减少而被下调４００万吨至３９００万吨，巴西的大豆预估产量保持不变，仍为５７００万吨。阿根廷产量下降对２００９－２０１０年度基本面的影响将比对本年度的影响更为直接。

美国农业部实施新的营销援助贷款措施

美国农业部上周宣布了有关营销援助贷款和贷款差额补贴的新规定，该规定旨在具体实施２００８年农业法案所包含的相关条款。“奥巴马总统和我本人都希望确保农民在生产农产品时，无需担心将来的收成无法以公允市值得到回报，”农业部长汤姆·威尔萨克说。

２００８年农业法案对营销援助贷款措施的几处修订包括以下方面：

  1. ２００８作物年度的营销贷款和贷款差额补贴以为每人７.５万美元为上限。而从２００９作物年度开始，该上限将不再适用。
  2. 美国农业部还表示将对贷款价格进行合理化改进，今后在发放贷款时将不再按溢价和折扣价对仓储贷款价格进行调整。如果商品由农场仓库交付或属于仓库罚没品，则贷款价格仅在贷款结算时按溢价和折扣价调整。该调整将从２００９作物年度开始实施。

 

此前，商品信用公司已与仓库运营商签署了储存协议，协议中规定了防止商品因大量积压而被罚没的财务及储存条件。

美国农业部将不再要求（1）联邦政府许可的或（2）符合适用州法的储存场所签署储存协议，也不再签发仓库收据。商品信用公司保留在公司秘书认为必要时与（1）或（2）签署储存协议的权利。商品信用公司可能会根据具体情况，要求（1）和（2）以外的储存场所签署储存协议。该调整将从２００９作物年度开始实施。

美国大豆出口量预计会上升

行业观察人士目前预计，２００８－２００９作物年度美国大豆出口量将上升。导致这一预测的主要原因在于，对欧盟和中国以外出口目的地的现有销售量和发货量超过预计。尽管阿根廷的出口能力因农户与政府之间持续不断的纠纷而存在不确定性，但美国对中国（阿根廷的主要出口目的地）的出口量已基本呈现季节性下降趋势。相比之下，对中国和欧盟以外出口目的地的销售量近几周却没有出现太大幅度的下降，最近一周反而有所上升。

２００９－２０１０作物年度美国大豆的出口形势可能也会好于以前的预计，这是因为近来阿根廷的大豆预估产量从４４５０万吨下调至４２００万吨，从而会在今年秋季降低阿根廷的出口能力，同时促进美国的出口潜力。

阿根廷废除大豆进口税减免措施

为促进国内压榨企业使用国产油籽，阿根廷废除了针对进口大豆的免税措施。阿根廷政府在官方公报中发布的一项决议中说，对于用进口大豆加工的豆油，政府将取消出口免税优惠，以“保护农户的”收入。由于过去１２个月来一再发生农户罢工，压榨企业为了保持工厂的满负荷运转，不得不进口国外大豆。“使用国内原料将可享受优惠，”公报中说。

分析人士表示，政府此举旨在促使国内农户出售其所囤积的数百万吨老茬大豆，并缓解不断增强的美元流给比索造成的压力。

据罗萨里奥谷物交易所近期的预计，农户们囤积了约５００万吨老茬大豆，远远高于往年同期的持有量。　　　

大豆类产品期价有升有降；大豆期价因老茬大豆供应趋紧而上升　　

大豆类产品在４月９日收盘时价格有升有降。由于供需数字表明老茬大豆供应趋紧，大豆期价小幅上升。美国农业部有关期末库存下降、出口量上升的预估报告为市场提供了支持力量。该报告还为价格提供了基本推动力，同时股市和原油期价的坚挺也提供了外部助推力。分析人士预计，由于市场不存在致跌因素，交易商可以重点关注紧张的老茬大豆供需形势，在这种情况下，市场将保持上行趋势。豆粕和豆油收盘价有升有降，其中豆油在价差交易中再次获得部分产品份额，分析人士说其原因在于，全球植物油需求前景看好且原油期价出现上升。豆粕期价起初勉强保持坚挺态势，但随着大豆期价从最高点的回落，豆粕期价也全线下跌。豆粕/豆油价差关系的调整也给豆粕期价造成了压力。５月份大豆期货价格上升＄０．３７为＄３７０．０１，７月份上升＄０．１８为＄３６８．１７，８月份上升＄１．１０为３６０．０８；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．２１为＄３４３．０４，７月份下跌＄１．２１为＄３３７．７４，８月份下跌＄０．４４为＄３２６．９４；５月份豆油期货价格上升９．４８为＄７８０．８７，７月份上升＄９．７０为＄７８７．２６，８月份上升＄９．９２为＄７９１．０１。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA WASDE Recap

USDA’s April WASDE report incorporates the estimates of U.S. grain stocks released March 31. In addition, USDA updated its view of ongoing world usage and trade for 2009-09. USDA’s adjustments to U.S. corn, soybean and wheat supply/use estimates generally matched expectations with implied ending stock estimates of all declining by amounts very near expectations. At the world level, estimates of world coarse grain and wheat use were each lowered by 2-3 million tonnes while that for soybeans declined by less than 1 million.

Implied soybean carryout stocks were lowered 544,000 tonnes to 4.49 million tonnes. As has been the case in previous months, forecast export volume was increased (up 980,000 tonnes to 32.9 million tonnes) and crush was lowered (down 136,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes).

Outside the United States, Argentina’s forecast production was lowered 4 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes on lower area and yield while Brazil’s forecast production was unchanged at 57 million tonnes. The reduction of Argentina’s production will more directly impact the 2009-10 season’s fundamentals rather than the current season.

USDA Implements New Marketing Assistance Loan Provisions

USDA last week announced new regulations for the Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL) and Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) program that implement provisions contained in the 2008 Farm Bill. “Both President Obama and I want to ensure that farmers can produce agricultural products without fear that they will not earn fair market value for what they harvest,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.

The 2008 Farm Bill included several changes to marketing assistance loan provisions such as:

  • The 2008 crop year marketing loan and loan deficiency payment benefits were subject to a limit of $75,000 per person. Starting with the 2009 crop year, these benefits will no longer be subject to a payment limit.
  • USDA also said it would streamline the loan prices by no longer adjusting loan rates on warehouse-stored loans by premiums and discounts at loan making time. Loan rates will be adjusted by premiums and discounts only at loan settlement, if the commodity is either farm-stored delivered or warehouse-stored forfeited. This change starts with the 2009 crop year.

 

In the past, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) executed storage agreements with warehouse operators to set forth financial and storage conditions to protect against the massive accumulation of commodities resulting from forfeitures.

USDA will no longer require the execution of a storage agreement in storage facilities that are either (a) federally-licensed or (b) in compliance with applicable state laws and issue warehouse receipts. CCC reserves the right to execute a storage agreement in either (a) or (b) if deemed necessary by the Secretary. CCC may, on a case by case basis, require a storage agreement for storage facilities that are neither (a) nor (b). This change starts with the 2009 crop year.

 

Increase In U.S. Soybean Exports Expected

Industry observers now expect US soybean exports to increase for the 2008-09 crop year. The expectation arises dominantly from larger-than-expected ongoing sales and shipments to destinations other than the EU and China. While Argentina’s ability to export is uncertain because of the ongoing dispute between farmers and the government, US outstanding export sales to China (Argentina’s main export destination) thus far are basically declining along a normal seasonal pattern. In contrast, outstanding sales to non-China, non-EU destinations have not fallen very much in recent weeks and increased in the most recent week.

The 2009-10 crop year could also be better then previously expected for US soybean exports. The 2009-10 export increase arises from recent reductions in Argentina’s soybean crop estimates from 44.5 to 42 million tonnes that will reduce Argentina’s export presence this fall and thereby boost US exports prospects this fall.

Argentina Eliminates Tax Break On Soybean Imports

Argentina has scrapped tax breaks on soybean imports in a bid to promote local crushers using domestic supplies of the oilseed. In a resolution published in its official gazette, the government said it was removing the export tax exemptions on soya oil made from imported soybeans in order to “protect farmers’ incomes.” Repeated strikes by farmers over the past 12 months have forced crushers to import beans in order to keep plants running at full capacity. “The use of domestic raw materials should be privileged,” the report said.

Analysts said the move is an attempt by the government to get Argentine farmers to sell the millions of tonnes of old harvest soybeans they have been hoarding and ease pressure on the peso by boosting dollar flows.

The Rosario Grain Exchange recently estimated that farmers were hoarding around 5 million tonnes of soybeans from the previous harvest, far more than they would usually have at this time of year.

Soy Complex Mixed; Soybeans Up Reflecting Tighter Old Crop Expectations

The soy complex closed mixed on April 9. Soybean futures were up slightly reflecting supportive supply and demand data revealing a tighter old crop balance sheet.  The market was buoyed a USDA report showing lower ending stocks and increased exports. The report provided a fundamental boost to prices, while strength in the stock market and crude oil futures generated a bullish outside market influence. Analysts expect the market will remain on an upward path, as the absence of fresh bearish features allows traders to focus on a tight old crop balance sheet. Meal and soyoil ended mixed, with soyoil recapturing some product share on spreads, underpinned by bullish outlooks for world vegoil demand and borrowed strength from higher crude oil futures, analysts said. Soymeal struggled to sustain price strength, retreating in unison as soybeans pulled back from early highs. Adjustments in the meal/oil spread relationship weighed on meal as well.   May bean futures were up $0.37, finishing at $370.01; July gained $0.18, closing at $368.17; and August was up $1.10, ending at $360.08. May meal decreased $1.21, closing at $343.04; July was $1.21 lower, finishing at $337.74; and August meal closed down $0.44, ending at $326.94. May soyoil was $9.48 higher, finishing at $780.87; July was up $9.70, closing at $787.26; and August gained $9.92, closing at $791.01.

周报图表