美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年３月３０日）
生物柴油行业需依靠政府强制令能才生存
新制定的可再生燃料标准要求２００９年生物柴油产量达到５亿加仑，２０１２年达到１０亿加仑，但该标准的实施时间却被推迟。据道琼斯通迅社报道，如果不实施这样的强制性规定，生产商会质疑整个行业的生存能力。就目前而言，温室气体排放量的计算方式正使得人们越来越担心豆基生物柴油可能达不到可再生燃料标准。
“如果（可再生燃料标准）得不到实施，生物柴油产量将从２００８年的７亿加仑滑落到２００９年的３亿加仑，” Mark IV Consulting的生物柴油行业经济专家利兰·帕恩（Leland Pahn）说。可再生燃料标准及其强制实施令对生物柴油行业至关重要，帕恩说。
行业分析人士表示，实施时间的推迟是因为环保署没有出台标准实施细则，预计环保署会在不久后公布实施细则，并留出６０天的意见反馈期，不过市场预计标准的全面实施时间会在１月份。
目前，生物柴油的利润空间因石油价格下跌而不断受到压缩。生物柴油价格通过生物柴油和普通柴油的利差得到反映。摩根大通在一份研究报告中指出，生物柴油产量目标依据成本相对较高的豆油的使用量而制定，在盈利缺乏持续性的情况下，该目标早已显得过于乐观。
科学家发现大豆中的抗亚洲锈病基因
来自美国农业部农业研究局、艾奥瓦州立大学和巴西的一支科学家团队利用最先进的基因技术发现了一种大豆基因簇，该基因簇能够抵抗引起亚洲大豆锈病的大豆锈菌（Phakopsora pachyrhizi）。根据美国农业部的报告，这一发现将有助于防止美国价值２７０亿美元的大豆作物感染这种导致减产的疾病，具体可通过传统育种或生物技术方式予以实施。
美国大陆最初发现大豆锈病是在２００４年。美国农业部基因学家米歇尔·格雷厄姆（Michelle Graham）说，尽管除草剂的使用对亚洲大豆锈病能起到效果，但更具持续性的做法还是向农民提供具有抗病特性的大豆品种。
农业项目补贴限额修订案遭否决
参议员查克·格来斯利（艾奥瓦州共和党人）上周继续力促修订现有的农业项目补贴限额规定，他提供了一份预算修订案，但之后在参议院预算委员会被否决。根据这项总统奥巴马和农业部长汤姆·维尔萨克支持的限额提议，每户农民可领取的最高农业补贴限额为２５万美元。但是，格来斯利提出的修正案以１０票对１３票的结果被否决。
参议员罗伯特·伯德（西弗吉尼亚州民主党人）、帕蒂·莫雷（华盛顿州民主党人）和罗恩·惠登（俄勒冈州民主党人）改变了他们原先的立场，转而支持现有的农业补贴限额规定，从而为补贴限额修订案的否决提供了决定性的三票。限额严化制定的支持者们指出，这三位议员之前均支持格来斯利的预算修订案，使得该修订案以１３票对９票获得内部通过。
预算委员会主席肯特·康拉德（北达科他州民主党人）在反对补贴限额规定的行动中提供了另一项修订案，要求削减作物保险拨款，该提案以１４票对１０票成功获得通过。根据康拉德的修订案，用于农业补贴的预算支出将有所减少，节余的部分资金将用于资助营养项目。康拉德在修订案中提议在今后５年将作物保险拨款削减约３．５亿美元。该提案最终以１４票对９票获得批准。上述节余资金的最终用途将取决于农业委员会的计划，而不由预算委员会决定。不过，预算委员会正就资金可能的来源进行各种假定。
印度取消毛豆油进口税
印度政府发布正式命令，宣布取消２０％的毛豆油进口税。这一决定使得豆油与其主要替代品棕榈油（之前已取消进口税）重新站在了同一起跑线上。“政府命令已发布，相关通告很快会在官方网站上公布，”印度中央税务委员会一位未透露姓名的官员说。这一说法证实了《印度商界报》之前的报道。贸易部长皮雷（G.K. Pillai）上周说，为了保持国内价格稳定，政府对毛豆油进口税采取了削减措施。
印度油料工业及贸易中央组织（印度最大的油籽加工者及交易商团体）总裁戴卫什·吉恩（Davish Jain）说，印度截至10月的食用油年库存量可能会增至原先的３倍，达到１５0万吨。棕榈油和豆油的无节制进口可能会压低国内价格，打消农民种植油籽作物的积极性。印度食用油需求量的近一半依赖于海外进口。
印度炼油者协会执行董事梅塔（B.V. Mehta）说，截至２００９年１０月的植物油年进口量可能会达到７２０万吨，比上一年高出１４％。该协会说，在截至２月份的４个月内，进口量比上年同期增长了６８％，达到２９５万吨。
另据相关消息，印度油料工业及贸易中央组织３月２２日说，印度截至６月３０日的油籽年产量可能会达到２４６５万吨，相较于一年前２４５９万吨的水平，变化幅度很小。
由于有传闻说中国可能会释放进口储备，大豆类产品期价呈升降不一之势
大豆类产品在３月２６日收盘时价格有升有降。由于出口销售及压榨数字强于预计，大豆期价一度高开，但后来有传闻说中国将释放其大豆进口储备，而且阿根廷的农户罢工也很有可能不会延续，在这种情况下，大豆期价出现回落。豆粕期价也出现下跌，而豆油期价则受石油行情走高的影响出现上升。阿根廷僵持局面的化解以及美国播种面积的高企将成为大豆和豆粕期价的主要致跌因素，特别是在中国因储备已饱和或计划释放部分储备而放慢购买进度的情况下。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄２．５７为＄３４６．８６，７月份下跌＄２．０２为＄３４５．５７，８月份下跌＄１．１０为３３９．５１；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄３．８６为＄３２０．５５，７月份下跌＄２．８７为＄３１５．２６，８月份下跌＄２．０９为＄３０７．２１；５月份豆油期货价格上升５．０７为＄７４０．７５，７月份上升＄４．６３为＄７４６．９２，８月份上升＄４．６３为＄７５０．４５。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
Biodiesel Industry Needs Government Mandates To Survive
The implementation of a new renewable fuels standard that calls for 500 million gallons of biodiesel production in 2009 and 1 billion gallons by 2012 has been delayed; without that mandate, producers question the industry’s sustainability, says Dow Jones Newswires. As it is, concerns are growing that soybean-based biodiesel might be disqualified because of a way to calculate for greenhouse gases.
“If the (renewable fuel standard) does not get implemented, biodiesel production could slide from 2008’s 700 million gallons to 300 million in 2009,” said Leland Pahn, economist with Mark IV Consulting, who works with the biodiesel industry. The standard and its mandate are critical for the biodiesel industry, Pahn said.
The delay is attributed to EPA not putting a rule out to implement the program, although the agency is expected to publish the rule soon for a 60-day comment period, with expectations for full program implementation by January, industry analysts said.
As it is, biodiesel margins are being squeezed as petroleum diesel prices are down. Biodiesel prices are dictated by the spread between biodiesel and diesel. Biodiesel production targets, based on the use of relatively expensive soybean oil, have long appeared optimistic given transitory profitability, according to a JP Morgan research note.
Scientists Identify Asian Rust Resistance Genes In Soybeans
Using state-of-the-art genomics techniques, a team of scientists from USDA’s Agricultural Research Service, Iowa State University and Brazil have identified a cluster of soybean genes that provide resistance to the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, which causes Asian soybean rust. According to a USDA statement, the discovery will help defend the $27 billion U.S. soybean crop against the yield-robbing disease, either through conventional breeding or biotechnological means.
Asian soybean rust was first detected in the continental United States in 2004. Although fungicide use is effective against Asian soybean rust, providing farmers with resistant cultivars is more sustainable, according to USDA geneticist Michelle Graham.
Farm Program Payment Cap Amendment Defeated
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) last week continued his efforts to modify the existing farm program payment-cap language by offering an amendment to the budget resolution that was being debated in the Senate Budget Committee. The language would have capped farm payments at $250,000 per farmer, a proposal supported by President Obama and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. However, the amendment failed by a vote of 10-13.
Senators Robert Byrd (D-W.V.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) reversed their previous positions in support of the farm payment-cap language, providing the decisive votes to defeat the subsidy payment-cap amendment. Proponents of the more restrictive pay-cap language noted that all three voted in favor of the Grassley amendment to the budget resolution and it passed 13-9.
In a successful attempt to oppose the pay-cap language, Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) offered an alternative amendment to cut crop insurance funding, an amendment that passed on a 14-10 vote. The successful Conrad amendment would reduce spending designated for the budget function for farm support and would shift part of the savings to the budget function for nutrition programs. Conrad’s proposal assumed crop insurance funding cuts of about $350 million over the next five years. That amendment was approved by a vote of 14-9. How such savings ultimately would be achieved is up to a plan devised in the Agriculture Committees, not the Budget Committee. However, the Budget Committee makes assumptions about where the money likely comes from.
India Abolishes Import Tax On Crude Soyoil
India’s government has issued the formal order to abolish the 20 percent import tax on crude soyoil. The decision brings soybean oil back in line with palm oil, a main substitute product, which had been exempted from the tax. “Orders have been issued and a notification on the official website should be uploaded anytime,” the unnamed official at the Central Board of Excise and Customs said, confirming a report in the Hindu Business Line newspaper. G.K. Pillai, the trade secretary, said last week the government had cut the import duty on crude soyoil to keep domestic prices stable.
Edible oil stockpiles may triple to as much as 1.5 million tonnes in the year to October 31, said Davish Jain, president of the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade, the country’s biggest group of oilseed processors and traders. Unbridled imports of palm and soyoil may depress local prices of the edible oils, discouraging farmers to plant oilseeds. India relies on overseas purchases to meet almost half its cooking fat demand.
Vegetable-oil imports may reach 7.2 million tonnes in the year to October 2009, up 14 percent from a year ago, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association, said. Purchases surged 68 percent to 2.95 million tonnes in the four months ended February from a year ago, the association said.
In related news, the Central Organization for Oil Industry & Trade said March 22 that India’s production of oilseeds may be 24.65 million tonnes in the year ending June 30, little changed from 24.59 million tonnes a year-earlier period.
Soy Complex Mixed Reflecting Talk That China May Release Import Reserves
The soy complex closed mixed on March 26. After opening higher following stronger-than-expected export sales and crush reports, soybean prices eroded amid talk that China would release soybeans from its import reserves and optimism that the Argentine farmer strike would not be extended. Soybean meal futures also were lower with soyoil futures higher on support from higher petroleum markets. The combination of a resolution of the Argentine stand off and big U.S. acreage would be quite bearish for soybean and soybean meal futures, especially if the Chinese buying pace slows because it has either filled its reserves or plans to release some of them. May bean futures were down $2.57, finishing at $346.86; July lost $2.02, closing at $345.57; and August was down $1.10, ending at $339.51. May meal decreased $3.86, closing at $320.55; July was $2.87 lower, finishing at $315.26; and August meal closed down $2.09, ending at $307.21. May soyoil was $5.07 higher, finishing at $740.75; July was up $4.63, closing at $746.92; and August gained $4.63, closing at $750.45.
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