美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年３月９日）
美国农业部就将缴款公投事宜举行表决
美国农业部上周公布了公投提请程序，以确定生产者是否希望就《大豆促进、研究及消费信息法》项下的《大豆促进及研究法令》举行公投。提请程序将刊登于２００９年３月２日的《联邦公报》。
该法令要求农业部长每５年举办一次公投提请活动。凡希望以公投形式决定是否继续实施大豆缴款计划的生产者均可参加。
当支持公投的美国大豆生产者至少达到１０％时，美国农业部将举行公投，但来自同一州的公投支持者不得超过五分之一。美国农业部计划今年春季在农业服务局举办公投提请活动。
可再生燃料行业劝说国会加大政府支持及税费减免
由于受到信贷危机和燃料价格狂跌的强烈冲击，来自生物柴油行业的官员在参议院就可再生燃料行业现状举行的听证会上表示，可再生燃料行业需要获得更大力度的政府贷款担保，以便投资新技术并提高混合燃料中的生物柴油比例。
美国生物柴油委员会负责联邦事务的副总裁曼宁·费拉西（Manning Feraci）也呼吁“长期致力于以可再生燃料代替石油。”他说有必要延长税费减免制度， 以促进可再生燃料的发展。每加仑生物柴油混合燃料减税１美元的激励措施将于１２月３１日到期，对此行业代表已提出延期请求。费拉西强调指出，环保署应实施有关可再生燃料标准的规定。费拉西说，经济衰退如果持续下去，美国生物柴油产量将出现下降。“在目前市况下，行业内只有不到三分之一的工厂仍在生产燃料，”他说。
代表密苏里州大豆协会提供证词的佩索－嘉吉生物燃料工厂（Paseo-Cargill Biofuels Plant）董事会成员布鲁克斯·赫斯特（Brooks Hurst）也极力主张延长生物柴油混合燃料的税费减免期。“在动荡的市场中，能够锁定价格是非常有帮助的。目前我们不知道将来能否享受税费减免，这种不确定性使得工厂很难以具备获利空间的价格锁定合同，”赫斯特说。他还说，他也支持新能源法中的可再生燃料标准。
赫斯特说，可再生燃料标准的迅速实施至关重要，因为此举可确保生物柴油被添入混合燃料，并防止那些未因乙醇混合燃料用量上升而直接受益的石油供应商阻止生物柴油的推广。
《２００７年能源自立和安全法》规定，机动车燃料所含乙醇或其它可再生燃料的总量到２０２２年必须达到３６０亿加仑，这一规定提升了可再生燃料标准。根据可再生燃料标准，乙醇及其它可再生燃料的生命周期温室气体排放量必须比汽油低２０％。环保署于２月初向白宫管理和预算办公室递交了一份可再生燃料标准实施细则，该细则规定了机动车燃料中乙醇的最低添加量。
阿根廷农场危机仍在延续；美国大豆产品可能受益
阿根廷农户与政府之间的政治紧张形势有可能使买方失去对阿根廷农产品的信心，进而导致美国豆粕出口量上升。阿根廷政府代表称，马拉松式的谈判上周以一系列协议的签署而成功告终，但农场代表却出言谨慎，称这些协定只是向前迈进了一步。“在农户们看来，这场冲突还没有结束，”阿根廷农业联盟负责人艾德瓦多·布兹（Eduardo Buzzi）说。布兹是四位农场领导之一，代表与政府谈判的全国数千农户。
“冲突还没有解决，”阿根廷农村协会负责人雨果·博尔凯蒂（Hugo Biolcati）在会后的一次电视新闻发布会上说。“我们已取得一些进展并找到一些解决方案．．．．．．但我们仍没有看到（政府）兑现（其之前的承诺），”他说。
已签署的协议规定了对牛奶、谷物及牛肉的补偿，这些协议是在总统克里斯蒂娜·基什内尔出人意料地加入谈判中的生产部长德伯拉·吉奥吉（Debora Giorgi）和内政部长佛罗轮恩西奥·兰达佐（Florencio Randazzo）后达成的。
但是，这些协议没有改变大豆出口税，就在近一年前，正是这一分歧促发了农户游街抗议并阻断公路，导致部分地区食品短缺。阿根廷农村联盟负责人马里奥·兰比尔斯（Mario Llambias）说，即使面对要求下调大豆出口税的压力，总统也不愿做出让步，这再次证实了政府的立场，即政府需要该项税收为国民经济带来的数１０亿美元。兰比尔斯说，农场领导们将向国会反对派成员们提出一份降税提议。
阿根廷目前的形势及美国大豆库存的不断上升可能导致美国大豆副产品大量转向出口。美国农业部预计，由于２００９－２０１０年度国内加工量预计将跌至２００３－２００４年度以来（目前的２００８－２００９销售年度除外）的最低水平，美国大豆期末库存将出现高达８０％的同比增长。
由于能源市场下滑且出口进度放慢，大豆类产品期价下跌
由于出口进度放慢且生物柴油产量大幅下降，大豆类产品在３月５日收盘时价格下跌。但是，作为需求晴雨表的股票和石油市场出现的下滑可能对大豆产品造成了更大影响。尽管大豆期价可能会继续与股市保持相同走势，而且老茬大豆期价可能会因阿根廷潜在的农户罢工而出现波动，但由于２００９－２０１０年度库存的潜在大幅增长给长期价格走势造成压力，预计大豆价格会出现下行趋势。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄４．７８为＄３１６．９１，５月份下跌＄６．０６为＄３１３．０５，７月份下跌＄６．０６为３１２．７８；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄５．９５为＄２９６．３０，５月份下跌＄６．６１为＄２８８．０３，７月份下跌＄６．９４为＄２８４．３９；３月份豆油期货价格下跌６．６１为＄６７１．０８，５月份下跌＄６．１７为＄６７７．０３，７月份下跌＄６．１７为＄６８４．０９。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA To Hold Vote On Checkoff Referendum
USDA announced last week procedures for a Request for Referendum to determine whether producers want a referendum on the Soybean Promotion and Research Order, as authorized under the Soybean Promotion, Research, and Consumer Information Act. The procedures will be published in the March 2, 2009, Federal Register.
The Act requires the Secretary of Agriculture to conduct a request for referendum every 5 years. Soybean producers who are interested in having a referendum to determine whether to continue the soybean checkoff program would participate.
USDA will conduct a referendum if a least 10 percent of U.S. soybean producers support a referendum. Not more than one-fifth of the producers who support having a referendum can be from any one state. USDA plans to conduct the request for referendum this spring at county Farm Service Agency offices.
Renewable Fuels Sector Lobbies Congress For Increased Government Support And Tax Credits
Reeling from the credit crisis and the significant drop in fuel prices, officials from biofuel industries told a House hearing on the state of the renewable fuels industry that their industries need stronger government-backed loan guarantees to invest in new technology and a boost in the amount of biofuels allowed in fuel blends.
Manning Feraci, the vice president of federal affairs for the National Biodiesel Board, also called for “a long-term commitment to replacing petroleum with renewable fuel.” He said extended tax credits are needed to develop renewable fuels. The industry representatives urged the extension of the $1-per-gallon biodiesel blending tax incentive, which is set to expire December 31. Feraci stressed the need for the EPA to implement the renewable fuel standard regulations. Feraci said that if prolonged, the economic downturn will lead to a retraction in U.S. biofuel production. “Due to current market conditions, less than one-third of the industry’s facilities are currently producing fuel,” he said.
Brooks Hurst, a member of the board of directors for the Paseo-Cargill Biofuels Plant who testified on behalf of the Missouri Soybean Association, also urged an extension of the biodiesel fuel blenders credit. “In a volatile market, it really helps to be able to lock in prices. As we go forward with uncertainty, not knowing whether we will continue to have a blenders credit, it’s hard for facilities to lock in contracts at a profitable rate,” Hurst said, adding that he also would support the implementation of renewable fuel standards in a new energy bill.
Hurst said quick implementation of the renewable fuel standard (RFS) is critical to ensure that biofuels are included in fuel mixtures and that they are not blocked by petroleum providers, who may not directly benefit from greater use of fuels blended with ethanol.
The renewable fuel standard (RFS) was expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which requires the motor fuel supply to include 36 billion gallons of ethanol or other renewable fuels by 2022. To qualify under the RFS, ethanol and other fuels would have to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent compared with gasoline. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sent a rule implementing the RFS, which stipulates the minimum levels of ethanol blended with motor fuels, to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review in early February.
Argentine Farm Crisis Continues; U.S. Soy Products Could Benefit
Political tensions in Argentina between local farmers and the government could see a boost in soymeal exports from the United States as buyers lose confidence in Argentine produce. Argentine government representatives described a series of agreements signed last week after a marathon bargaining session as successful, while representatives of the farming sector were more cautious, describing the accords only as a step forward. “There is not a sensation among producers that this conflict has come to an end,” said the head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, Eduardo Buzzi, one of four farm leaders representing thousands of growers throughout the country in negotiations with the government.
“The conflict is not resolved,” agreed Argentine Rural Society head Hugo Biolcati in a televised news conference following the meeting. “We’ve achieved some progress, some solutions...but we still haven’t yet managed to see the results” of previous government promises, he said.
The agreements signed cover compensation for milk, grain and cattle, and came after President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner unexpectedly joined Production Minister Debora Giorgi and Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo in the talks.
The accords, however, did not alter export taxes on soybeans – the area of disagreement that led farmers nearly a year ago to take to the streets in protest, blocking highways and resulting in food shortages in some areas. Argentine Rural Confederation head Mario Llambias said Fernandez would not waiver when pressed to lower export taxes on soy, reaffirming the government’s position that Argentina needs the billions of dollars the taxes contribute to the economy. Llambias said farm leaders will take a proposal to cut duties to opposition members in Congress.
The Argentine situation along with increasing U.S. stocks of soybeans could lead to a large amount of U.S. soybean by-products available for export. USDA has forecast that ending stocks for U.S. soybeans could be up on the year by as much as 80 percent as 2009-10 domestic processing is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2003-04, with the exception of the current 2008-09 marketing year.
Soy Complex Lower On Declining Energy Markets And Slow Exports
The soy complex closed lower on March 5 reflecting slow export sales along with a sharp a drop in biodiesel production. However, the decline in outside equity and petroleum markets may have been an even bigger influence on the complex as a barometer of the demand environment. While soybean futures likely will continue to move in sympathy with the stock market and old-crop futures may be roiled by the potential for a farmer strike in Argentina, soybean prices are expected to exhibit a downward bias as prospects for a big increase in stocks for 2009-10 weigh on the longer-term price outlook. March bean futures down $4.78, finishing at $316.91; May lost $6.06, closing at $313.05; and July was down $6.06, ending at $312.78. March meal decreased $5.95 closing at $296.30; May was $6.61 lower, finishing at $288.03; and July meal closed down $6.94, ending at $284.39. March soyoil was $6.61 lower, finishing at $671.08; May was down $6.17, closing at $677.03; and July lost $6.17, closing at $684.09.
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