美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年３月２日）
美国农业部公布最新供需报告
美国农业部在上周举办的年度前景论坛上公布了其２００９－２０１０年度的供需报告，其中２００９年大豆预估产量因面积和单产上升而比去年高出９％，达到８８２０万吨。由于大豆播种面积上升到创纪录的３１２０万公顷，美国农业部将２００９－２０１０年度的大豆结转库存从６９９万吨的基线预测上调至１０３０万吨。如果２００９年天气状况保持正常，预计大豆单产将恢复到每公顷２８．６５吨的预期趋势水平。
美国农业部预计２００９－２０１０年度国内大豆使用量将达到５０３０万吨，比２００８－２００９年度高１．９％，国内压榨量将上升１．５％，达到４５６０万吨。做出这一上调的主要原因在于，阿根廷在本销售年度上半年因旱灾而出现的供应量下降为美国压榨企业提供了机遇，因此美国的豆粕预估出口量有所上调。
尽管美国豆粕消费小幅上升，但豆油消费预计会下降１％至７９０万吨。美国农业部说，导致豆油消费下降的原因之一在于，美国生物柴油产量经过几年的迅猛增长，开始趋于平稳。美国农业部预计２００８－２００９年度生物柴油产量将占国内豆油消费量的１６％。
据美国农业部预计，２００９－２０１０年度美国大豆出口量将上升到创纪录的３３３０万吨。尽管全球经济增速放慢，但美国大豆出口预计仍将上升，因为南美大豆供应量的下降使得美国大豆占全球贸易份额的比重有所上升。鉴于阿根廷和巴西部分地区出现干热天气，美国农业部大幅下调了这两个国家２００８－２００９年度的产量预测，下调后的预估供应量（截至１０月１日）比上一年度低大约１０％。随着阿根廷和巴西竞争力的下降，美国豆粕和豆油出口也将在本销售年度上半年从中受益。
普查局公布１月份压榨报告
根据美国普查局上周公布的报告，１月份压榨量为３９５万吨，略低于市场预期。豆油产出率为每蒲式耳１１．１５磅，豆粕产出率为每蒲式耳４７．３８磅，相较于此前一周美国油籽加工者协会公布的产出率，这两项数字均低于预计。截至１２月底的豆油库存数字调整为１２０万吨，但截至１月底的库存（１３３万吨）却高于市场预期，说明国内使用量低于预期。豆粕库存因１月份最后一天适逢周末而达到４０．６万吨的较高水平，说明国内消费并不像之前预想得那么疲弱。
宾夕法尼亚州要求本州所有柴油燃料以豆油为部分原料
宾夕法尼亚州替代燃料行业促进措施的一项成果表现在，明年起宾州出售的所有汽油将含有部分豆基燃料。宾州大学合作推广部的梅娜·赫特奥（Mena Hautau）说，越来越多的大豆被用作燃料来源，这将为豆农开辟另外一个市场。
２００８年通过的一项法律规定，生物柴油生产商只要使用豆油生产燃料，就可享受每加仑７５美分的税费抵免。根据这一规定，那些购买宾州大豆生产燃料的公司可获得５３０万美元的税费抵免。同时该法还规定，宾州销售的所有燃料必须含有至少２％的宾州本地产生物柴油。
“生物柴油必须在宾州生产和销售，”提出该法案的宾州议员大卫·凯斯勒（David Kessler）说。用豆油生产出的生物柴油具有与传统柴油燃料类似的燃烧特性。出台该法的部分目的在于帮助宾州的生物燃料生产商。
凯斯勒说，自去年夏季税费抵免制度实施以来，生物柴油生产商为达到２％的比例要求，已开始扩大产量，目前供应量已超过４０００万加仑，足以满足与传统柴油混合的需要。他说，在未来２年内，随着产量的进一步上升，生物柴油的填加比例将提升到５％。“替代燃料将使我们摆脱对国外石油的依赖，”他说。“生物柴油燃烧时的清洁度比传统燃料高出８０％。”
赫特奥还说，现在就预言该法将对豆价有何影响或是否能激励谷农种植大豆，尚为时过早。她说，宾州大豆目前以饲料为主要用途。
阿根廷政府与农户之间的冲突可能激化
阿根廷政府正在考虑接管本国的谷物贸易，这一动向有可能激化农户与政府之间就农业政策问题历时一年的冲突。目前正在研究的一项提议是，由政府统购统销谷物和油籽，以确保在出口过剩出现之前先满足国内需求。
据阿根廷《民族报》报道，政府提出国有化议案，意在向农户施压，迫使其出售目前仍持有的７００万吨上年度大豆。该报称，这些大豆一经出售，政府将获得１０亿美元的税收。“这一举措正在增加农户意向的不确定性，”阿根廷农业联盟负责人艾德瓦多·布兹（Eduardo Buzzi）说。“如果政府认为农户们会出售他们的农产品，那就错了，因为当不确定性突显时，人们通常会停止行动。”
另外，最近农场团体与政府之间的谈判没有触及大豆和玉米出口税，而这正是政府与农户之间冲突的症结所在。阿根廷最大农场协会的领导们已定于３月３日恢复与政府的谈判。
由于疲软的出口缓解了有关老茬大豆的顾虑，大豆类产品期价下跌
由于令人失望的一周出口销售数字缓解了有关老茬大豆供货的顾虑，大豆类产品在２月２６日收盘时价格下跌。石油市场虽止跌回升，但豆油期价仍以跌势收盘，原因在于大豆期价的下跌构成压力且普查局公布的豆油库存数字高于预计。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄３．２２为＄３１９．３９，５月份下跌＄４．２３为＄３１９．１２，７月份下跌＄４．３２为３２０．８６；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄４．１９为＄２９６．５２，５月份下跌＄４．６３为＄２９０．１３，７月份下跌＄５．０７为＄２８８．３６；３月份豆油期货价格下跌５．７３为＄６９７．５４，５月份下跌＄８．１６为＄７０３．９３，７月份下跌＄５．９５为＄７１１．４２。The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA Supply/Demand Report Recap
USDA released its 2009-10 supply and demand data at its annual Outlook Forum last week. Soybean production for 2009 is projected at 88.2 million tonnes, 9 percent above last year due to both increased area and a rebound in yield. USDA boosted its 2009-10 soybean carryout from 6.99 million tonnes in its baseline projections to 10.3 million tonnes on an increase in soybean plantings to a record 31.2 million hectares. Assuming normal weather conditions for the 2009 crop, soybean yields are expected to return to trend, projected at 28.65 tonnes per hectare.
USDA expects domestic use of soybeans to be 50.3 million tonnes, 1.9 percent above 2008-09. Domestic crushing is projected to increase by 1.5 percent in 2009-10 to 45.6 million tonnes. The expected increase is driven mostly by higher projected soymeal exports as U.S. crushers take advantage of drought-reduced supplies in Argentina during the first half of the marketing year.
In contrast to the modest gains in soymeal disappearance, U.S. consumption of soyoil is expected to dip 1 percent to 7.9 million tonnes. According to USDA, one of the driving factors behind the decrease is that after several years of rapid growth, U.S. biodiesel production from soyoil has leveled off. USDA forecasts that biodiesel production could be responsible for 16 percent of domestic soyoil disappearance in 2008-09.
U.S. soybean exports are projected to grow in 2009-10 to a record 33.3 million tonnes, according to USDA. Despite slowing economic growth throughout the world, U.S. soybean exports are projected to increase due to an increased share of global trade resulting from reduced supplies in South America. Hot, dry weather in parts of Argentina and Brazil has sharply lowered USDA’s production estimates for 2008-09, leaving October 1 supplies in those countries down roughly 10 percent from the previous year. U.S. exports of soybean meal and soybean oil also will benefit during the first half of the marketing year as competition from Argentina and Brazil weakens.
Recap Of January Census Crush Report
The Census Bureau last week reported a January soybean crush of 3.95 million tonnes, slightly below the market’s expectations. The oil yield of 11.15 pounds per bushel and the meal yield of 47.38 pounds per bushel both were lower than expected based on the yields reflected in the previous week’s NOPA report. End-of-December soybean oil stocks were revised to 1.2 million tonnes, but end-of-January stocks of 1.33 million tonnes were higher than the market was expecting, implying that domestic use was smaller than expected. Soybean meal stocks were fairly large at 406,000 tonnes as the month ended on a weekend, suggesting that domestic use was not quite as weak as previously thought.
Pennsylvania To Require All Its Diesel Fuel Be Made In Part From Soybeans
As the result of an effort to boost the state’s alternative fuels industry, all diesel gasoline sold in Pennsylvania next year will contain some fuel derived from soybeans. The increased use of soybeans as a fuel source will provide another market for growers, said Mena Hautau of Penn State University’s Cooperative Extension.
A law passed in 2008 gives biodiesel manufacturers a tax credit of 75 cents a gallon to produce fuels made from crushed soybeans. It provides $5.3 million in tax credits for companies purchasing Pennsylvania soybeans for use as fuel. And it requires that all diesel sold in Pennsylvania contain at least 2 percent biodiesel manufactured in Pennsylvania.
“It has to be produced and sold in Pennsylvania,” said state Rep. David Kessler, who sponsored the bill. Biodiesel made from crushed soybeans burns similarly to conventional diesel fuel. The move is designed in part to help the state’s biofuels manufacturers.
With the tax credit in place since last summer, biodiesel manufacturers have ramped up production to supply the more than 40 million gallons needed to mix with conventional diesel to meet the 2 percent requirement, Kessler said. Within the next two years, diesel fuel will contain 5 percent biodiesel as manufacturing increases, he said. “It is an alternative fuel that will help wean us off foreign oil,” he said. “It burns 80 percent cleaner than conventional fuel.”
Hautau also said it is too soon to say what impact the legislation will have on soybean prices or if it will encourage grain farmers to plant soybeans. Most soybeans grown in Pennsylvania are used by farmers to feed their animals, she said.
Conflict Between Argentina’s Government And Farmers May Get Worse
Argentina’s government is considering a plan to take over the country’s grain trade, threatening to worsen a year-long conflict between farmers and the state over agriculture policy. A proposal for the government to buy and sell grains and oilseeds to ensure that domestic demand is met before exporting surpluses is being studied.
By raising the possibility of nationalization, the government is putting pressure on farmers to sell as much as 7 million tons of soybeans that they still hold from last year’s harvest, La Nacion newspaper reported. The sales would add $1 billion to government tax revenue, the newspaper said. “This move is increasing uncertainty among farmers,” said Eduardo Buzzi, head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation. “The government is wrong if it thinks farmers will sell their produce because, when uncertainty arises, people tend to freeze operations.”
Meanwhile, recent talks between farm groups and the government did not touch on the export taxes on soybeans or corn, two major sticking points in conflict between the government and farmers. Leaders of the country’s biggest farm associations are set to resume talks with government officials on March 3.
Soy Complex Lower As Weak Exports Ease Old Crop Concerns
The soy complex closed lower on February 26 as disappointing weekly export sales figure eased concerns about old-crop supplies. The petroleum markets rallied, but soyoil futures closed lower due to pressure from lower soybean futures and the larger-than-expected soyoil stocks reported by the Census Bureau. March bean futures down $3.22, finishing at $319.39; May lost $4.23, closing at $319.12; and July was down $4.32, ending at $320.86. March meal decreased $4.19 closing at $296.52; May was $4.63 lower, finishing at $290.13; and July meal closed down $5.07, ending at $288.36. March soyoil was $5.73 lower, finishing at $697.54; May was down $8.16, closing at $703.93; and July lost $5.95, closing at $711.42.
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