美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年２月２３日）
美国大豆协会担心生物柴油强制使用量的法令
美国大豆协会主席约翰∙霍夫曼对道琼斯通讯社说，美国农民担心，环保署可能会就国会制定的豆基生物柴油强制生产量做出环保效果不达标的判定。霍夫曼说，国会在其可再生燃料标准中规定，生物柴油年产量将在２０１２年达到１０亿加仑，但如果环保署判定大豆燃料的实际环保效果逊于之前的设想，那么这一强制生产量的法令可能会被废止。
霍夫曼说，问题并不在于美国的大豆种植和生物柴油生产，而在于其对国外环境的破坏性影响。他说，环保署担心农民们会破坏雨林以播种大豆，用于生产生物柴油。
“要想达到可再生燃料标准，可再生燃料的温室气体排放量必须比石油燃料低５０％，”霍夫曼对道琼斯通讯社说。“根据目前的标准，豆基生物柴油的环保性能比石油基（燃料）高出约７８％。如果把全球间接的土地使用（亚马逊地区．．．．．．为生产而开垦的土地）算在内，那么这一数字则低于５０％。”
美国油籽加工者协会公布最新数字
１月份美国大豆压榨量高于之前业内的一些预测，豆油产量高于１２月份，但低于去年同期。根据美国油籽加工者协会的报告，１月份会员企业的压榨量共计３７９万吨，高于前一个月的３６７万吨，但低于去年同期的４１５万吨。在美国油籽加工者协会公布报告之前，行业曾预测１月份压榨量将介于３７０万吨至３８０万吨之间。报告中的豆油库存数字为１０９万吨，高于前一个月的９８．７万吨，但低于去年同期的１２９万吨，而１月份的豆油产量为７１．３万吨，比前一个月高１．８１万吨，但比去年同期低８．６６万吨。
中国对美国大豆的需求保持强劲
中国强劲的大豆需求因政府实施大豆储备计划而更加突显。１月份的初步出口数据表明，主要出口国对中国的大豆出口量比去年上升９０万吨以上，但是对欧盟和其它地区的出口却在过去６个月中第５次低于去年同期水平，这说明全球需求正在萎缩。分析人士预计，中国在２００８－２００９年度（头年１０月至次年９月）的大豆期末库存将达到９５０万吨，高于２００７－２００８销售年度末５００万吨的预估库存。据此推断，中国的蛋白粕消费量在２００７－２００８年度上升约６．５％之后，将在２００８－２００９年度上升５．７％。
阿根廷可能发生农户罢工
受物价下跌及旱灾困扰的阿根廷农户表示，他们将连续４天停止出售谷物及部分牛肉，以抗议总统克里斯蒂娜·基什内尔的农业政策。这一声明发表于政府同意与农场领导在２月２４日举行会谈后几分钟。农户们要求基什内尔下调３５％的大豆出口税，提供更多旱灾援助，并放宽对玉米、小麦和牛肉的销售控制。
２月１９日政府召集农业领导与主要内阁大臣举行会晤，但阿根廷农村联合会主管马里奥·兰比尔斯说，这一姿态份量过轻，而且也太迟。“我们认为自已被牵着鼻子，被抛在一边，甚至被侮辱，”兰比尔斯在驳斥政府拒绝讨论暂缓执行出口税时说。
在罢工发起之时，全国各地农户将汇聚利昂市中心，举行其所宣称的大型示威。去年，农户们曾为阻止拟实施的大豆出口税上调而举行了震惊全国的抗议活动，历时４个月，使基什内尔陷入窘境。
由于经济衰退持续影响需求，大豆利润将超过玉米和小麦
麦格理集团（一家专门从事投资、顾问及财务服务的跨国公司）商品战略家克娜·哈奎（Kona Haque）说，西方市场的衰退可能意味着２００９年饲用谷物的需求将更加疲软。哈奎上周在伦敦举办的软性商品及农业大会上对Agra Informa Investing说，经济衰退将导致用于乙醇和生物柴油的饲用谷物的需求进一步疲软，而粮食类谷物需求受到的影响将会小一些。
全球许多商品将供过于求，但在经济形势及信贷状况不佳的情况下，播种面积的下降及产量的停滞不前可能会影响明年的收成。
哈奎预计，由于目前油籽的利润高于玉米和小麦，２００９年的大豆播种面积将有所上升。但是，由于南美作物遭遇的旱灾预计会影响产量，大豆需求可能会下滑。
哈奎指出，２００９年世界上许多商品的需求将会下降。她说，许多生物燃料公司已经破产，预计这意味着用于生物燃料的玉米的需求正在萎缩。
由于美元走强且南美作物长势有所改善，大豆类产品期价呈升降不一之势
大豆类产品在２月１９日收盘时价格有升有降。大豆类产品期价在开盘时曾因美元受挫而高企，但随着美元的反弹，前期上涨被抵消。市场面临的压力还包括另外两方面，一是有传闻说中国将取消部分美国大豆订货，二是南美作物长势正在改善。由于美国及全球需求疲软，且美国大豆播种面积预计会超过去年的纪录水平，因此就长期而言，大豆市场可能会面临压力。阿根廷农户于２月２０日发起了为期４天的罢工，由于期限较短，可能不会造成大豆及大豆产品出口中断。但是，一旦在阿根廷出口高峰期出现长期罢工，部分出口业务就可能像去年一样转向美国。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１．１０为＄３２４．９９，５月份下跌＄０．１８为＄３２５．５５，７月份下跌＄０．１１为３２７．５７；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄０．９９为＄３０４．７９，５月份下跌＄０．６６为＄３０１．９２，７月份下跌＄０．１１为＄３０１．２６；３月份豆油期货价格不变，仍为＄６７０．６４，５月份上升＄０．２２为＄６７７．９１，７月份上升＄０．２２为＄６８５．６３。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
ASA Concerned About Biodiesel Mandate
U.S. farmers are worried that EPA may decide that soybean-based biodiesel does not meet the requirements it needs to qualify for a production mandate devised by Congress, American Soybean Association Chairman John Hoffman told Dow Jones Newswires. Congress, in its renewable fuel standard, mandated that biodiesel production reach 1 billion gallons per year by 2012, Hoffman said, but that could be scrapped by EPA if it decides that the soybean fuel is not as good for the environment as was previously thought.
The problem is not soybean farming and biodiesel production in the United States, but rather the disruptive effect both are having to the environment overseas, Hoffman said. EPA, he said, is concerned that farmers are destroying rainforest to plant soybeans to make biodiesel.
“To qualify for the renewable fuel standard, a renewable fuel has to be 50 percent better in greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum-based fuels,” Hoffman told the news service. “Under the current standards, soy-based biodiesel is quantified as about a 78 percent improvement over petroleum-based (fuel). If you include international, indirect land use –– land coming out of production…in the Amazon –– that figure falls below the 50 percent standard.”
NOPA Recap
The U.S. soybean crush was higher in January than some industry estimates had suggested and soyoil production was up from December but down from the same month last year. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that member firms crushed 3.79 million tonnes of soybeans in January, compared with 3.67 million tonnes in December 2008 and 4.15 million tonnes in January 2008. Prior to the release of the NOPA report, industry estimates for crush last month ranged from 3.7 to 3.8 million tonnes. Soyoil stocks are pegged at 1.09 million tonnes, compared with 987,000 tonnes in December and 1.29 million tonnes in January 2008, while soyoil production was 713,000 tonnes last month, up 18,100 tonnes from December but 86,600 tonnes lower than the same month last year.
Chinese Demand For U.S. Soybeans Remains Strong
China’s robust demand for soybeans is being enhanced by the Chinese government’s accumulation of soybean reserves. Preliminary export data for January shows soybean exports from the major exporters to China to have been up more than 900,000 tonnes from last year. However, shipments to the EU and the rest of the world were below year-ago levels for the fifth time in the past six months, reflecting the contraction in world demand. Analysts project China’s 2008-09 (October/September) soybean ending stocks at 9.5 million tonnes, up from an estimated 5.0 million at the end of the 2007-08 marketing year. This assumes China’s total protein meal usage will increase by 5.7 percent in 2008-09 after increasing by an estimated 6.5 percent in 200708.
Argentina Farm Strike Likely
Argentine farmers, beset by falling commodity prices and drought, said they will halt sales of grains and some beef cattle for four days to protest President Cristina Kirchner’s agrarian policy. The announcement came minutes after the government agreed to a meeting with farm leaders on February 24. Farmers are calling on Kirchner to reduce a 35 percent export tax on soybeans, offer greater drought assistance and ease controls on marketing corn, wheat and beef.
The government summoned farming leaders on February 19 for meeting with a key Cabinet secretary, but Argentine Rural Confederation head Mario Llambias said the gesture was too little, too late. “We think we’ve been led on, tossed to the side and even insulted,” said Llambias, objecting to the government’s refusal to discuss an export-tax suspension.
In the kickoff to the strike, farmers from across the country will gather in the central town of Leones for what’s being billed as a major show of force. Last year, farmers rocked the nation with protests for four months and dealt Kirchner a bitter defeat, blocking a proposed increase in the soybean tax.
As Recession Continues To Affect Demand, Soybeans More Profitable Then Corn Or Wheat
The recession in Western markets could mean weaker demand for feed grains in 2009, according to Kona Haque, commodity strategist for the Macquarie Group, a global company specializing in investment, advisory and financial services. Haque told the Agra Informa Investing in Soft Commodities & Agriculture conference in London last week that the economic slowdown will cause weaker demand for feed grains for ethanol and biodiesel, while demand for human consumption will be less affected.
Many of the world’s commodities will move into surplus, but lower planting and crop maintenance due to poor economics and credit availability may affect next season’s output, she said.
Haque sees increased planting of soybeans for 2009, as the oilseed is currently more profitable than corn or wheat. However, soybean demand may slip as output is expected to be limited due to a poor, drought hit South American crop.
Haque noted that demand for many of the world’s commodities will fall in 2009. She noted that many biofuel companies have gone bankrupt, which is expected to mean shrinking demand of corn for biofuels.
Soy Complex Mixed As Stronger Dollar, Improving South American Conditions
The soy complex closed mixed on February 19. Soybean complex futures opened higher amid a setback in the dollar, but those early gains eroded as the dollar rebounded. Weighing on the market were rumors of cancelations of some Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and improving South American crop conditions. Longer term, the soybean market likely will be burdened by poor demand in the United States and abroad and prospects for U.S. soybean plantings to exceed last year’s record. Argentine farmers began a 4-day strike on February 20, which likely will not disrupt exports of soybeans and products because of its short duration. An extended strike during Argentina’s peak export season, however, could shift some export business back to the United States, as was the case last year. March bean futures down $1.10, finishing at $324.99; May lost $0.18, closing at $325.55; and July was down $0.11, ending at $327.57. March meal decreased $0.99 closing at $304.79; May was $0.66 lower, finishing at $301.92; and July meal closed down $0.11, ending at $301.26. March soyoil was unchanged, finishing at $670.64; May was up $0.22, closing at $677.91; and July gained $0.22, closing at $685.63.
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