美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年１月１２日）
美国大豆出口进度
１０月份和１１月份美国大豆出口进度为每周１０９万吨，１２月份回落至每周８１．６万多吨，与８５．７万吨的一周出口进度基本一致。如果这一进度持续至２月份，实际出口将可能会超过美国农业部对２００８－２００９年度的预估出口量。
中国仍占美国出口量的大部分，但不再独占美国出口量。１２月份的出口检测量高达４１６万吨，创该月历史最高纪录。由于对其它国家和地区的出口令人失望，中国仍占美国出口量的绝大部分。基于普查数字的２９９０万吨预估出口量如果不偏低的话，则有可能与实际数字相吻合。
美国１１月份的最新压榨量数字
上周，美国普查局将１１月末的豆油库存数字下调９５３０吨至１１５万吨，而１０月份的库存数字则基本未做调整，仍维持在１０８万吨的水平。由此看来，１１月份的国内消费仍比去年同期下降１６％，比未过去５年来的平均水平下降１３％。１１月份用于生产生物柴油的数量为１１．２万吨，高于行业预计，比去年同期高１．３２万吨，但比上个月低６８００吨。用于生物柴油的动植物油总量为２０．６万吨，比去年同期高６．１２万吨，但比上个月低８１６０吨。豆油在生物柴油中的用量比例稳定在５５％的水平。
如果普查局的产量及库存预测准确的话，则说明１１月份国内豆粕和豆油的用量非常低，其中豆粕的推断用量比去年低１５％，豆油比去年低１７％。据此推断，１１月底（截至星期天）的豆粕和豆油库存可能被高估，但豆粕的回落与近几个月不佳的表现并无太大出入，而豆油的回落则显得异常剧烈。
自年初呈现下降趋势后，豆油的推断用量在１１月份相对于５年来的平均水平出现大幅下降。１１月份生物柴油中的豆油用量可能仍在大幅下降，这是因为生物柴油利润率在１２月份跌入负值区间之前仍处在正值区间的较上水平。２００８－２００９年度前两个月的豆油国内用量预计比去年同期下降６％，比过去５年来的平均水平下降４％。
农业州立法委员设法将农村项目纳入经济刺激方案中
据《国会季刊》报道，农业州的立法委员正在力促经济刺激方案资助那些能够创造就业机会的农村基础设施及技术项目，并放宽针对农场主的信贷。众议院农业委员会提出了其所谓的紧急需求，其中包括８０００万美元的农业贷款担保。同时，参议院农业委员会主席汤姆·哈金（艾奥瓦州民主党人）建议将用于农村水利及污水处理系统的２０亿美元纳入经济复苏方案。
众议院农业拨款小组委员会主席罗萨·德劳罗（康涅迪格州民主党人）说，国会应对农村进行投资（比如推广宽带服务），以提供短期救助，同时确保经济发展的长期可持续性。德劳罗预计，经济刺激方案将包含用于农村开发的某些款项。
威尔萨克的任职可能会在１月２０日得到确认
汤姆·威尔萨克可能会在１月２０日美国当选总统奥巴马宣誓就职的当天出任农业部长一职。参议院农业委员会已定于１月１４日召开听证会。委员会主任马克·海尔沃森说，奥巴马一经上任并签署提名文件，参议院就有可能全票赞成这位艾奥瓦州前州长担任农业部长。委员会主席汤姆·哈金与威尔萨克均来自艾奥瓦州。
参议员查克·格来斯雷（艾奥瓦州共和党人）说，可能“很少有人甚至无人会反对”威尔萨克的上任。格来斯利说，他在上周与威尔萨克会谈时提出了几个问题，包括补贴资格相关规定的实施及公民权利问题的处理。
阿根廷大豆出口税保持不变
阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德兹宣布了旨在帮助国内农业渡过全球经济衰退期的税率下调措施，但大豆的出口税率却保持不变。对于以前已公布的玉米和小麦出口税下调，政府此次又加大了下调幅度，使得中小型农场主的出口税率小幅下降。“这一举措旨在大力调动农民生产和播种这两种作物的积极性，因为玉米和小麦有助于农业可持续方案的制定，”费尔南德兹说。
１２月初，阿根廷政府曾公布下调玉米和小麦的出口税，这是阿根廷为缓解全球经济危机不利影响而出台的总体刺激计划中的一项举措。
同时，阿根廷一些立法委员已提交一项提案，要求取消现行３５％的大豆出口税。农场主们将必须把大豆出口税减免所节省的资金用于购买国产农业机械。尽管阿根廷有报道说，费尔南德兹总统的一些拥护者将会支持采纳这一提案，但目前尚不确定该提案能获得多大程度的支持。
由于基金出售且能源市场下滑，多数大豆类产品期价下跌
由于晚些时候基金开始出售且豆油期价在能源市场下滑的影响下出现下跌，多数大豆类产品在１月８日收盘时价格下跌。本周，美国农业部将如期发布《２００８年度作物产量汇总》以及每季度一期的作物库存报告及每月一期的世界农业供需预测。行业对美国农业部大豆预估产量的初步预测为７９２０万吨，这一数字比美国农业部１１月份的评估低２９．９万吨。分析人士对美国农业部１２月１日预估库存的初步预测平均为５９４０万吨。市场预计美国农业部会将２００８－２００９年度的大豆延期库存数字从上个月的５８８万吨下调５４．４万吨。１月份大豆期货价格下跌＄０．３７为＄３６３．３９，３月份下跌＄０．１８为＄３６３．５８，５月份下跌＄０．３７为３６７．４３；１月份豆粕期货价格上升＄４．４１为＄３２９．５９，３月份上升＄３．０９为＄３２８．８２，５月份上升＄２．９８为＄３３０．８０；１月份豆油期货价格下跌＄８．８２为＄７８３．０７，３月份下跌＄８．８２为＄７８８．８１，５月份下跌＄１０．８０为＄７９７．１８。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
U.S. Soybean Export Pace
The soybean export pace of 1.09 million tonnes or more per week in October and November has moderated to just over 816,000 tonnes per week during December. This is roughly in line with the weekly pace of 857,000 tonnes that, if retained through February, could be on track to exceed USDA’s 2008-2009 export forecast.
China continues to account for the majority of U.S. exports, but no longer dominates U.S. exports. Export inspections for December were an impressive 4.16 million tonnes, which was a record for that month. China continues to account for the vast majority of U.S. exports as shipments to other destinations have tended to be disappointing. The Census-based export forecast of 29.9 million tonnes looks to be on target, if not a tad low.
November U.S. Soybean Crush Update
Last week, the Census Bureau revised lower end-of-November soybean oil stocks by 9,530 tonnes to 1.15 million tonnes and left October stocks essentially unchanged at 1.08 million tonnes. This still leaves November domestic disappearance 16 percent below last year and 13 percent below the 5-year average. Usage of soybean oil in biodiesel production during November was larger than the industry had expected at 112,000 tonnes, up 13,200 tonnes from the previous year, but 6,800 tonnes below the previous month. Usage of all fats and oils in biodiesel production was 206,000 tonnes, up 61,200 tonnes from the previous year, but down 8,160 tonnes from the previous month. Soybean oil’s share of biodiesel production was steady at 55 percent.
If the Census Bureau’s production and stocks estimates are accurate, domestic usage of soybean meal and oil was extremely poor during November with implied meal usage 15 percent below the previous year and soybean oil off by 17 percent. Granted, meal and oil stocks may have been inflated by the end of November occurring on a Sunday, but the decline for soybean meal was not much out of line with the poor performance of recent months while the decline for soybean oil was exceptionally poor.
Implied soybean oil usage plummeted in November relative to the 5-year average after trending lower since the first of the year. Biodiesel’s consumption of soybean oil probably was still going at a pretty decent clip during November because biodiesel margins still were significantly positive before dropping negative during December. Soybean oil domestic usage during the first 2 months of 2008-09 is estimated to have been down 6 percent from last year and 4 percent below the 5-year average.
Farm-State Legislators Look to Stimulus Bill for Rural Programs
Farm-state lawmakers are pushing for a share of the economic stimulus package, to fund job-creating rural infrastructure and technology projects and to free up credit for farmers, according to Congressional Quarterly. The House Agriculture Committee identified what it described as urgent needs, including $80 million in farm loan guarantees. Meanwhile, Senate Agriculture Chairman Tom Harkin (D-Iowa,) is recommending that the economic recovery plan include $2 billion for rural water and wastewater treatment systems.
House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said Congress should make rural investments, such as expanding broadband service, that simultaneously provide short-term relief and long-term economic sustainability. DeLauro predicted that the stimulus plan will contain some money for rural development.
Vilsack May Be Confirmed by January 20
Tom Vilsack could take office as agriculture secretary as soon as January 20, the same day that President-elect Obama is sworn in. The Senate Agriculture Committee has scheduled a confirmation hearing for Vilsack for January 14. That would make it possible for the full Senate to vote to confirm the former Iowa governor as soon as Obama takes office and signs the nomination papers, said Mark Halverson, the committee’s chief of staff. The committee is chaired by Vilsack’s fellow Iowan, Democrat Tom Harkin.
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) says there would likely be “little or no opposition” to Vilsack. Grassley said he raised several issues in a meeting with Vilsack last week, including USDA’s enforcement of subsidy eligibility rules and handling of civil rights issues.
Argentina’s Soy Export Tax Remains Unchanged
Argentina’s president Cristina Fernandez has announced tax cuts to help the country’s farm sector survive the global economic downturn, but kept levies on soy unchanged. The government has expanded previously announced tax reductions on corn and wheat exports, lowering rates slightly for small- and medium-sized farmers. “The idea is to create strong incentives for the production and sowing of these two crops because they help to develop a sustainable agricultural program,” Fernandez said.
In early December, the Argentine government unveiled tax cuts on corn and wheat exports as part of a broader stimulus plan that Argentina launched to offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis.
Meanwhile, a group of Argentine lawmakers has presented a bill that would make Argentine farmers exempt from the soy export tax, which is currently 35 percent. Farmers would have to take the money saved from the soy export tax exemption and purchase farm machinery made in the country. It is uncertain how much backing such a bill would have, although there are reports out of the country that some proponents of President Fernandez would support passage of the legislation.
Soy Complex Mostly Lower On Fund Selling And Declining Energy Markets
The soy complex closed mostly lower on January 8 reflecting late fund selling and lower soyoil prices that mirrored declines in the energy markets. This week, USDA is scheduled to release its Crop Production Annual Summary for 2008, along with its quarterly Grain Stocks and monthly WASDE reports. The early trade expectation for USDA’s soybean crop estimate is 79.2 million tonnes, which would be down 299,000 tonnes from USDA’s November estimate. The early average analyst estimate for USDA’s December 1 stocks estimate is 59.4 million tonnes. The market expects USDA to lower its 2008-09 soybean carryout about 544,000 tonnes from last month’s 5.58 million tonnes. January bean futures closed down $0.37, finishing at $363.39; March lost $0.18, closing at $363.58; and May was down $0.37, ending at $367.43. January meal increased $4.41 closing at $329.59; March was $3.09 higher, finishing at $328.82; and May meal closed up $2.98, ending at $330.80. January soyoil was $8.82 lower, finishing at $783.07; March was down $8.82, closing at $788.81; and May lost $10.80, closing at $797.18.
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