美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００８年１２月２９日）
*** 通知: 每周快报将于下周元旦期间暂停一期，下期将于２００９年１月９日发布。谨祝新年平安兴旺 ***
美国化肥批发价开始下跌
美国农场局联合会的一份报告显示，美国化肥批发价在连续上涨了６年之后，终于开始下跌。
由于目前大豆、玉米及其它农产品的价格比夏季高峰下跌了５０％甚至更多，化肥批发价也开始随之下跌，但零售价仍未下跌。美国农场局联合会高级经济师特里·弗朗科说，化肥批发价大约两个月前开始下跌，当时农场主们已基本完成了秋季施肥。
报告说，玉米地带的无水氨批发价已从每吨１０００多美元下跌至５００美元。尿素从每吨８５０美元左右下跌至３５０美元左右。磷酸氢二氨从每吨１１００美元下跌至６００美元。碳酸钾价格的跌幅不太明显，从每吨９００多美元小幅跌至８００多美元。
“除作物价格因素外，还有许多因素导致化肥价格下跌。天然气价格从每百万英国热量单位（相当于１０００立方英尺）从１１美元下跌至６美元左右。天然气是无水氨生产过程中的主要成本投入，通常占总成本的８０－９０％，”弗朗科说。
弗朗科说，大量持有高价存货的化肥经销商明年春季可能会陷入困境，因为有迹象表明，农场主们已开始计划减少玉米、棉花等施肥密集型作物的播种量，而增加根本无须使用氮肥的大豆的播种量（事实上，豆科作物反而能增加土壤中的氮含量）。
美国农业部启动付款计划并宣布付款率
美国农业部开始登记领取直接付款和反周期付款的农场主，期限截至６月１日。
以下是２００８年农业法案规定的付款率及其它相关财务信息。
针对大豆的直接付款及最大反周期付款率 |
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商品 |
单位 |
目标价格 |
直接付款率 |
贷款率 |
最低有效价格 |
最高反周期付款 |
大豆 |
美元/蒲式耳 |
5.80 |
0.44 |
5.00 |
5.44 |
0.36 |
普查局公布１１月份压榨报告
普查局上周公布的１１月份大豆压榨量数字为３９４万吨，比行业预计低大约５．４４万吨。豆油库存数字为１１６万吨，比行业预计高大约４．５４万吨，豆粕库存数字为５４．３万吨，创下最高纪录。如果产量及库存数字上升，就说明１１月份豆粕及豆油的国内用量非常低，其中豆粕用量比上一年度低１５％，豆油用量比一上年度低１７％。１１月份（截至周日）豆粕和豆油库数字可能会大幅上调，豆粕库存的下降并未脱离近几个月的疲软表现，而豆油库存的下降则有些不同寻常。
阿根廷未下调大豆出口税
尽管本周早些时候有报道说阿根廷将宣布下调大豆出口税，但事实上政府并没有这样做。除下调水果及蔬菜出口税外，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德兹没有宣布下调大豆出口税。大豆出口税率仍保持在原有的３５％。
不仅如此，政府还在公布下调玉米和小麦出口税后再次扩大这两种作物的降税幅度，使中小型农场主的税率小幅下降。“这样做是为了有效激励玉米、小麦的生产和播种，因为这两种作物有利于农业的可持续发展，”费尔南德兹说。
同时，阿根廷还报告说１１月份出口量出现下降，这是６年来的首次下降。商品价格下跌及对中国出口量的下降被认为是主要原因。
预计印度将扩大食用油进口量
由于国内需求上升且产量停止增长，预计本年度印度对进口食用的依赖将会上升。印度炼油者协会在一份报告中说，本年度（即２００８年１１月至２００９年１０月）国内夏播油籽作物的产量预计将达到１６５０万吨，低于政府预计的１７５０万吨。
这一数字不包括冬播油籽作物产量，冬播产量预计将达到１０００万吨。“油籽总产量将达到２６００万至２７００万吨。由此看来，过去５年来的平均产量几乎没有任何增长，”该协会说。
“油籽产量几乎停滞不前，导致食用油进口量逐年上升，在下一油籽作物年度，植物油进口量可能会上升到６５０万吨以上，超过２００７－２００８年度的６３０万吨。”
由于阿根廷天气干旱且中国需求强劲，大豆类产品期价上升
由于阿根廷的干旱天气令人担忧且中国需求强劲，大豆类产品在１２月２４日收盘时价格上升。１月份大豆期货价格上升＄５．４２为＄３３６．４８，３月份上升＄５．１４为＄３１６．３６，５月份上升＄５．１４为３１９．１２；１月份豆粕期货价格上升＄７．１６为＄３１７．３５，３月份上升＄７．１６为＄３１６．３６，５月份上升＄６．９４为＄３１９．１２；１月份豆油期货价格上升＄２．２０为＄６９０．２６，３月份上升＄１．９８为＄６９６．８７，５月份上升＄１．７６为＄７０３．７１。
Wholesale U.S. Fertilizer Prices Beginning To Fall
After increasing for six consecutive years, U.S. fertilizer prices are finally beginning to fall at the wholesale level, according to a report by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Now that prices for soybeans, corn and other commodities have declined 50 percent or more from summer peaks, wholesale prices for fertilizer are dropping as well, but retail prices have yet to fall. According to AFBF Senior Economist Terry Francl, the wholesale fertilizer price drop began about two months ago, generally after the time farmers applied fall fertilizer to their crops.
According to the report, wholesale prices for anhydrous ammonia in the Corn Belt have declined from the $1,000 per-ton- plus range to the $500 range. Urea has dropped from the mid-$800 range to the mid-$300 range. Diammonium phosphate has declined from $1,100 to $600 per ton. The decline in potash prices has been less notable, dropping from a little over $900 per ton to slightly over $800.
“The reasons for the decline involve much more than just crop prices. Natural gas prices have declined from more than $11 per million BTUs (1,000 cubic feet) to around $6 per million BTUs. Natural gas is the primary input utilized to manufacture anhydrous ammonia and typically accounts for 80 percent to 90 percent of all input costs,” says Francl.
Francl said fertilizer dealers with large, high-priced inventories could be in a difficult position this spring due to indications by farmers that they plan to plant less fertilizer-intensive crops, such as corn and cotton and plant more soybeans which don’t use nitrogen at all, and as legumes actually add nitrogen to the ground.
USDA Announces Program Signup, Payment Rates
USDA has begun signing up farmers for the direct & countercyclical payment program, with the deadline set for June 1.
Below are the payment rate and other financial information about the program as provided by the 2008 farm bill.
Direct Payments and Maximum Countercyclical Rates for Soybeans |
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Commodity |
Units |
Target |
Direct Payment Rate |
Loan Rate |
Minimum Effective |
Maximum Counter-cyclical Payment |
Soybeans |
$/bu. |
5.80 |
0.44 |
5.00 |
5.44 |
0.36 |
Census Bureau’s November Crush Report
Last week’s November soybean crush from the Census Bureau of 3.94 million tonnes was almost 54,400 tonnes smaller than trade expectations. Stocks of soybean oil of 1.16 million tonnes were about 45,400 tonnes above expectations and soybean meal stocks were record large at 543,000 tonnes. If the production and stocks hold up, implied domestic usage of soybean meal and oil was extremely poor during November with meal usage 15 percent below the previous year and oil off by 17 percent. Granted, meal and oil stocks can be inflated by November ending on a Sunday, but the decline for soybean meal was not out of line with the anemic performance of recent months while the decline for soybean oil was exceptional.
Argentina Does Not Cut Soybean Export Tax
Argentina did not cut soybean export taxes, despite reports earlier in the week that the government was poised to announce such a development. No such announcement was made by the country’s president, Cristina Fernandez, only a cut in export taxes on fruits and vegetables. The export tax on soybeans was left unchanged at 35 percent.
Instead, the government has expanded previously announced tax reductions on corn and wheat exports, lowering rates slightly for small- and medium-sized farmers. “The idea is to create strong incentives for the production and sowing of these two crops because they help to develop a sustainable agricultural program,” Fernandez said.
Meanwhile, Argentina reported a decline in exports during November, the first in six years. It cited lower commodity prices and smaller shipments of soybeans to China as the key factors.
India Expects Increase Of Edible Oil Imports
India’s dependence on edible oil imports is expected to rise this season due to increased local demand and stagnant production growth. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEAI) said in a statement that it estimates the country’s summer-sown oilseeds harvest will be around 16.5 million tonnes this season, which runs from November 2008 to October 2009, compared to the government’s estimate of 17.5 million tonnes.
This is in addition to a winter-sown oilseed crop expected to be about 10 million tonnes. “The overall oilseed production will be around 26 million to 27 million tonnes. As such, there is hardly any growth in average production over the past five years,” it said.
“Oilseed production is more or less stagnant leading to a higher import of edible oils on a year on year basis and in the next oil year, the vegetable oil import may increase to over 6.5 million tonnes, compared to 6.3 million tonnes in 2007-08.”
Soy Complex Higher On Dry Weather In Argentina And Strong Demand From China
The soy complex closed up on December 24 reflecting dryness concerns for Argentina and strong Chinese demand. January bean futures closed up $5.42, finishing at $336.48; March gained $5.14, closing at $316.36; and May was up $5.14, ending at $319.12. January meal increased $7.16 closing at $317.35; March was $7.16 higher, finishing at $316.36; and May meal closed up $6.94, ending at $319.12. January soyoil was $2.20 higher, finishing at $690.26; March was up $1.98, closing at $696.87; and May gained $1.76, closing at $703.71.
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© Copyright 2008 U.S. Soybean Export Council |
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